The degradation of Russian morale in the trenches of Avdiivka and Bakhmut has driven Moscow to try altering the course of the war with a revival of nuclear blackmail tactics. On October 30, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that Western attempts to inflict strategic defeat on Russia has increased the risk of a direct… Read more »
Author: Pavel Baev
Putin and Xi Meet as Hidden Differences Mount
Foreign trips are now rare occasions for Russian President Vladimir Putin. As such, it was highly important to him to hold a position above that of the other participants at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on October 17 and 18. Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping obliged by making Putin the guest… Read more »
Two Wars Set a Triple Test for Western Unity
International attention has shifted its focus from Ukraine to the conflict in Gaza and its potential impact on global governance. The Western front faces challenges in navigating peace efforts in both regions. The war in Ukraine has all but disappeared from the international news stream since the brutal attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel on October 7,… Read more »
The Next Surge of Conflict in the South Caucasus Is Still Preventable
The tragic exodus of the Armenian population from the Nagorno Karabakh region has closed a chapter in the long saga of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The disappearance of this self-proclaimed republic provides the opportunity to bring these bitter hostilities to an end; it takes, nevertheless, plenty of wishful political thinking to believe that a… Read more »
Moscow Seeks to Benefit From Fighting in Gaza
Russia’s war against Ukraine crosses the 600-day mark this week, and the fighting between Israel and the Hamas terrorists based in Gaza is on its tenth day. The effects of the latter on the former are still emerging. The interplay between these two major breakdowns in the world order is certain to be strong. Russian… Read more »
Putin Uses Valdai Club to Repeat Nuclear Bluff
Last week, the annual gathering of the Valdai International Discussion Club was held in Sochi, Russia. Today, this conference does not deserve the attention such events used to have a decade ago, when many Western experts saw it as a unique opportunity to gain access to Russian policy-makers, particularly President Vladimir Putin. The only topic… Read more »
Winter in the Long War Is Coming for Russia
Russia’s strategy for prevailing in the long war with Ukraine does not have a protracted timeline and looks no further than 2024. This strategy is based on three premises: economic performance will keep the war machine going; Western support for Ukraine will erode and contract; and the Ukrainian army’s capacity to conduct offensive operations will… Read more »
Zelenskyy Fights Difficult Diplomatic Battles, as Russia’s Isolation Deepens
Neither New York, nor Washington rolled out the red carpet for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Putin and Kim Meet at Russian Cosmodrome
On September 13, two armored trains met at a cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East. While this might read like the beginning of a joke, it is in fact an accurate description of last week’s meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Due to personal security concerns, the location of… Read more »
Russia’s Diminished Global Status Exposed in India
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s absence at the G20 summit in New Delhi on September 9 and 10 was not all that surprising and seemed hardly registered by any of the two dozen world leaders who attended. Putin also missed the previous summit in Bali, Indonesia, and did not attend the most recent BRICS gathering in… Read more »