The fall of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Wagner Group and its impact on Russian activities in Africa: diminished authority of President Putin, fading diplomatic influence, and declining mercenary power pose challenges to sustaining interventions on the continent. The abrupt end to the spectacular career of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the Wagner Group and the proprietor of a… Read more »
Author: Pavel Baev
Hard Georgian Lessons for Ending the War in Ukraine
Russia’s all-out aggression against Ukraine, which will pass the 18-month mark next week, is indirectly but strongly connected to the Russo-Georgian war of 15 years ago. In the first week of August 2008, Georgian villages in South Ossetia, a separatist enclave controlled by Russia since 1992, came under heavy artillery fire; on August 14, Russian… Read more »
Ukraine’s ‘Counteroffensive’ in the Global South
The low-profile and high-impact meeting in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on August 5 and 6 was never intended to produce a road map for ending the war in Ukraine; neither was it a summit, since the invitations sent to some 40 countries specified the level of representation as national security advisers. It can, nevertheless, be called… Read more »
Hollow Words and Apparent Setbacks at the Russia-Africa Summit
Concerted diplomatic efforts were invested during preparations for the Russia-Africa Summit in St. Petersburg, formally held on July 27 and 28, and President Vladimir Putin was grandstanding, networking and entertaining his guests non-stop from Wednesday afternoon to Saturday evening. His main intention was to demonstrate the width and depth of Russia’s ties with the continent…. Read more »
Russia Escalates War by Breaking Ukraine Grain Deal
The decision to withdraw from the international arrangement guaranteeing the safety of grain exports from Ukrainian ports, announced in Moscow on July 17, signifies a significant effort to escalate non-kinetic hostilities to break the pattern of slow-moving defeat in this war of attrition. Russian President Vladimir Putin repeatedly expressed dissatisfaction with the benefits that Ukraine… Read more »
Russia Reels From New Post-Vilnius Challenges
The outcome of the NATO summit in Vilnius on July 11 and 12 left the Russian leadership confused and anxious. The controversial issue on Ukraine’s membership in the alliance was left pending, as had been planned. Thus, some official mouthpieces in Moscow and many “patriotic-military” bloggers have rushed to pronounce the meeting as an “epic… Read more »
A Vilnius Boost for the Ukrainian Offensive
The summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) in Vilnius, Lithuania, on July 11 and 12 will likely not produce any sensational joint decisions; it is set, nevertheless, to signify a major step in reconfiguring and reinforcing the European security system. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has shaken this system badly, and NATO, which used… Read more »
The Wagner Mutiny Damages Russia’s Policy in Africa
The resonance from the June 24 mutiny attempted by Yevgeny Prigozhin, the boss of the notorious Wagner group, remains strong, despite the attempts by President Vladimir Putin to demonstrate a swift restoration of stability in Russia.
Failures of Putin Regime Distort Russian Political Perspectives
Questions about the drivers, participants and consequences of the Wagner Group mutiny on June 23 and 24 are set to remain unanswered as the Russian leadership finds it necessary to close that shocking page.
Mutiny Undercuts Russian Intrigues in the Global South
The weekend mutiny of the Wagner Group, pathetic as it may look in hindsight, is certain to affect Russia’s ability to sustain its aggression against Ukraine and to repel the ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensive. But it will also resonate in a much wider sense.