This Week in South Sudan – Week 50

Monday 7 December

  • Vice President James Wani Igga met with a representative from the SPLM-Former Detainees and the SPLM (IO) to confidentially discuss the return of opposition members to Juba.
  • South Sudan’s government demanded the SPLM (IO) to drastically reduce the number of members on their advance team scheduled to return to Juba.

Tuesday 8 December

  • An armed group calling itself the ‘South Sudan Armed Forces’ claimed its forces overran a SPLA military outpost in Longiro, Eastern Equatoria. Three government soldiers were allegedly killed in the attack.
  • SPLM/A (IO) leader, Riek Machar, appointed his wife, Angelina Teny, as chairperson of the group’s ‘National Committee for Security and Defence.’

Wednesday 9 December

  • According to official sources, at least five people were killed in Yambio, Western Equatoria, in clashes between the Arrow Boys and government security forces.

Thursday 10 December

  • The UPDF have withdrawn its troops from South Sudan, but has been repositioned at the border between the two countries. The Ugandan government claimed this is for security purposes.
  • A meeting of the Joint Political and Security Mechanism (JPSC) between Sudan and South Sudan was postponed due to undefined South Sudanese “security considerations.”
  • The SPLM (IO) announced their advance team’s arrival in Juba has been postponed until further notice due to “intransigence” of President Salva Kiir’s government. 

Friday 11 December

  • Due to “technical problems”, the extra-ordinary SPLM convention, scheduled to take place on 12 December, has been postponed to the beginning of January in 2016.
  • Foreign Policy, Dispatch: “No Foreign Aid, No Peace in South Sudan”
  • Radio Tamazuj video: “Highlights of the US Senate hearing on South Sudan”

Saturday 12 December

  • The SPLM (IO) claim President Salva Kiir’s government has no legal mandate after their failure to form a transitional government by the 25 November deadline, as mandated by the August peace agreement.
  • The South Sudanese government has ordered its army to shoot down any aircraft flying across its airspace without permission. The SPLM (IO) later criticized the decision.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 49

Tuesday 1 December

Wednesday 2 December

  • BBC: “What China hopes to achieve with first peacekeeping mission.”
  • At least 12 people were killed and 22 others wounded during inter-clan clashes between Aliap and Gony clans of Rumbek East County in Lakes state.
  • South Sudan’s constitutional court indefinitely adjourned the case brought by opposition parties to block President Salva Kiir’s order to create 28 states.
  • President Salva Kiir reportedly endorsed a local peace deal with armed groups in Western Equatoria state know as the Arrow Boys.
  • The SPLA (IO) accused government forces of killing, torture and rape of residents of Magwi County in Eastern Equatoria state.

Thursday 3 December

  • Financial Times: “How South Sudan’s wealthy park their assets outside the country.”

Friday 4 December

Saturday 5 December

  • Al Jazeera: Women of South Sudan: Broken bodies, shattered dreams.”
  • In Cueibet County, Lakes state, at least 14 people were killed and 35 wounded following revenge attacks. 

Sunday 6 December

  • A study by the South Sudan Law Society finds that 53% of the people living in UN’s ‘Protection of Civilians’ site in Malakal, Upper Nile state suffer symptoms of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder.
  • According to opposition officials, Payinjiar County received at least 15,000 displaced people, as fighting intensified between government forces and the SPLA (IO) in recent weeks in Leer, Koch and Mayiandit areas in Unity state.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 48

Monday 23 November

Tuesday 24 November

Wednesday 25 November

Thursday 26 November

Friday 27 November

Saturday 28 November

Sunday 29 November

Norway’s Role in South Sudan’s Independence

In an interview, 21 November with the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten, Øystein. H. Rolandsen at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) explains why it is a misunderstanding to hold Norway and other Western countries accountable for South Sudan’s secession.

The Norwegian government and civil society organisations have for decades been extensively engaged in efforts to bring peace and stability to what is now the “two Sudans”. Even before the South Sudanese celebrated their independence from South Sudan on 9 July 2011, foreign observers were referring to the world’s newest country as a “pre-failed state”. Since December 2013 South Sudan has been embroiled in civil war. The war has been extremely brutal and devastating with widespread killings, kidnappings, child soldiers, destroyed and deserted villages, forcing over a million people to flee their homes. The economy is in tatters and the international goodwill the South Sudanese leaders enjoyed has evaporated. Now Norwegian media asks if the new state formation is a failure and whether it was a mistake for Norway to be involved in the peace process. 

Could Norway have hindered South Sudan’s secession?

It was the Comprehensive Peace Agreement signed in 2005 by the Government of Sudan and the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement (SPLM), which opened up the possibility of South Sudan’s secession. The Troika, consisting of Norway, the UK and the US, had a crucial role in the process leading up to the peace compromise.

Rolandsen explains: “To understand how South Sudan’s secession came about we have to go back to the early 2000s when peace negations started in earnest. It was not an option for SPLM to engage in serious negotiations without their demand for a referendum being met. In reality this left the Troika, Norway included, with two poor options. The Troika could support the negotiations while accepting that secession was a possible outcome, or disengage and let the war continue.”

One unforeseeable event made the efforts to keep Sudan united even harder than expected. The same year the peace agreement was finalized in 2005 John Garang, the undisputed leader of the SPLM, was killed in a helicopter crash. Garang had consistently claimed that his first choice was for South Sudan to be part of a democratic and secular Sudan, and that secession was only a last resort. But many within his movement did not share this vision, including his second-in-command, Salva Kiir.

– John Garang was a strong leader and did not want share power. He had not groomed anyone to replace him. By default, he was therefore succeeded by Salva Kiir, who had remained loyal but lacked Garang’s leadership skills, says Rolandsen.

As president of the regional government of Southern Sudan in the period from 2005-2011 Salva Kiir could hardly be bothered to hide his disdain for the idea of a united Sudan. Neither did the northern Sudanese leaders in Khartoum contribute to make “unity attractive” and power sharing at national level became a joke. They also sabotaged the implementation of other aspects of the peace accord, most importantly the agreed solution to the conflict in contested area of Abyei.

The international community were also committed to make unity attractive by providing assistance to both the north and the south. However, this aid proved ineffective as it was pooled in a large Multi Donor Trust Fund. This was managed by the World Bank, which had little experience from Sudan. In consequence it took years for the fund to become operational. The peacekeeping mission also proved to be largely ineffectual.

The agreement stipulated that the referendum over South Sudan’s independence should take place after six years. In 2010 some suggested that the referendum should be delayed arguing that South Sudan lacked the necessary foundation to be govern as an independent state. But the SPLM leaders made it clear that any delays would lead to them unilateral declaring South Sudan independent. In January 2011the South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly in favour of succession.

In December 2013, a new civil war broke out in South Sudan, following allegations of a coup attempt against Salva Kiir by former Vice President, Riek Machar. Over the past two years, the war has raged on between government forces and Riek Machar’s faction, the SPLM (in Opposition). In the Aftenposten article Hilde Frafjord Johnson, the former UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative in South Sudan, emphasise that the current civil war is not a result of South Sudan’s independence, but a leadership struggle within the SPLM, which could have been avoided.

– Rolandsen adds, the underlying structural causes of the war is that South Sudan is a militarised society which is attempted governed by an extremely weak state apparatus. Violence is the default reaction to any challenge and the government has little capacity to hinder escalation of conflicts.

A comprehensive peace agreement signed by warring parties in August has given new hope and is still holding. But – even if the agreement last – the question remains if the necessary trust between parties to the conflict can be re-established and if the economic foundation for a functioning state can emerge out of the ruins of war.

Øystein H. Rolandsen’s PRIO home page lists a number of publications where these points are elaborated further. 

This Week in South Sudan – Week 47

Monday 16 November

Wednesday 18 November

Thursday 19 November

  • SPLM (IO) once more declared that President Salva Kiir’s decision to divide South Sudan into 28 states derails the implementation of the peace agreement signed in August.
  • The SPLA claim to have regained control of the Nimule-Juba highway following an ambush on a bus where at least people five people were reported killed.
  • At least three people were killed and two others wounded in clashes between SPLA and civilians in Ezo County in Western Equatoria state. After the shootings the town residents fled into the bush.
  • Less than two thirds of South Sudanese parliament members voted in favour of constitutional amendments to divide South Sudan into 28 states. However, the number of members present and votes counted has later been

Friday 20 November

Sunday 22 November

  • Radio Tamazuj: Map analysis of the ethnic balance if President Salva Kiir’s proposed 28 states are established.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 46

Tuesday 10 November

Wednesday 11 November

Thursday 12 November

Friday 13 November

  • Explaining South Sudan’s peace deal:
    • Part 24: Will officials be immune from prosecution?
    • Part 25: How will victims be compensated?

Saturday 14 November

  • SPLA (IO) welcomed the declaration of the youth fighters in Western Equatoria state, known as the Arrow Boys, to join its fighting force.
  • SPLA (IO) dismissed claims that their forces carried out an attack at a village in Twic East county in Unity state.
  • President Salva Kiir said he fears his own party will turn against him after exiled opposition politicians return to government, suggesting they will use money and influence to ‘buy’ members of the party in order to oust him.

Sunday 15 November

This Week in South Sudan – Week 45

Monday 2 November

Wednesday 4 November

Thursday 5 November

Saturday 7 November

  • About 450 IDPs allegedly left the UN protection site in Juba earlier this week to join the ranks of SPLA (IO) in Western Equatoria state according to a South Sudanese minister.
  • President Salva Kiir issued an executive order integrating all officers and former militia fighters under the overall command of the chief administrator of the Greater Pibor Administrative Area, David Yauyau, now promoted from a SPLA major general to a rank of lieutenant general.
  • The SPLA (IO) accused government forces of carrying out a surprise attack on bases in Mundri town and in Jambo area, Western Equatoria state

Sunday 8 November

  • Explaining the South Sudan peace agreement:
    • Part 21: Role of the Finance Ministry
    • Part 21 (2): New details on Juba security arrangements
    • Part 22: Transitional justice mechanisms

Monday 9 November

  • The New York Times: ‘An Island Refuge, Surrounded by Bloody Civil War, in South Sudan’
  • The SPLM/A (IO) said they will dispatch 500 members as an advance team to Juba in preparation for Riek Machar’s re-instatement as first vice president.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 44

Monday 26 October

Wednesday 28 October

  • South Sudan Foreign Minister Barnaba Marial Benjamin rejected the finding of AU’s Commission of Inquiry report and remains insistent that an alleged coup bid started the conflict.
  • About 200 shops in Wau town in Western Bahr al Ghazal have been closed due to declining purchase power.
  • The opposition group from Western Equatoria state, Revolutionary Movement For National Salvation (REMNASA) and the SPLM (IO) signed an agreement to merge in Addis Ababa.
  • BBC: ‘South Sudan’s shattered dream’
  • The Guardian: ‘South Sudan: ‘a level of human suffering I have never seen anywhere else’’

Thursday 29 October

  • Final Report of the African Union Commission of Inquiry on South Sudan.
    • The New York Times: ‘Rape and Cannibalism Cited Among South Sudan’s Horrors’
    • The Guardian: ‘South Sudan civil war inquiry details torture and forced cannibalism’
    • Al Jazeera: ‘Report: Mass graves, rape and cannibalism in South Sudan’
    • BBC: ‘Rape and cannibalism in South Sudan, African Union says’
    • Radio Tamazuj: ‘Summary of the AU panel of inquiry’s recommendations for South Sudan’
  • 18 UN peacekeepers were freed after being detained by rebels affiliated with the SPLA (IO) north of Malakal, Upper Nile state. UNMISS later carried out a successful extraction operation securing the release of the 13 UN contractors who were still held hostage.

Friday 30 October

Saturday 31 October

Sunday 1 November

  • Radio Tamazuj: Explaining the South Sudan peace agreement:
    • Part 17: ‘Will Juba be demilitarized?’
    • Part 18: ‘Who will decide on security reform?
    • Part 19: ‘Will people be allowed to go home?’
    • Part 20: ‘What is the Special Reconstruction Fund?’

This Week in South Sudan – Week 43

Monday 19 October

Tuesday 20 October

Wednesday 21 October

  • PRIO Global Fellow Dr. Luka Biong Deng left South Sudan abruptly. The circumstances of his departure are still unclear. Media claims that President Salva Kiir ordered Juba University to dismiss Luka Biong Deng from his lecturing post in response to a public lecture on the presidential decree creating 28 states. University of Juba, however, explained that Dr.Luka Biong Deng resigned over ‘personal issues.’ It is also possible that Dr. Luka Biong’s absence is only temporary.
  • Government troops and the SPLA (IO) trade accusations over recent attacks in Leer County, Unity State.

Thursday 22 October

  • Uganda started withdrawal of troops from South Sudan. According to a government spokesperson this is expectedly to be completed within the first week in November.

Friday 23 October

Saturday 24 October

  • 80 civilians, including 57 children, have been killed in Leer county, Unity state in October according to the Protection Cluster monitoring civilian casualties in South Sudan.
  • BBC: ‘Malakal: The city that vanished in South Sudan’

Sunday 25 October

  • Radio Tamazuj ‘Explaining the South Sudan peace agreement’:
    • Part 14: Where will the forces of the warring parties go?
    • Part 15: Who must coordinate demobilization?
    • Part 16: Who will report ceasefire violations?

This Week in South Sudan – Week 42

Monday 12 October

Tuesday 13 October

Wednesday 14 October

Thursday 15 October

Friday 16 October

Saturday 17 October

  • Radio Tamazuj: ‘Explaining the South Sudan peace agreement’
    • Part 10: Is the peace deal a law?
    • Part 11: How is power shared in the states?
    • Part 12: Who will organize elections?
    • Part 12 (#2): Does the ceasefire apply to allied forces?
    • Part 13: What are considered ceasefire violations?

Sunday 18 October

  • People loyal to President Salva Kiir claim that the dissolution of SPLMs ruling structures will not affect the implementation of the August peace agreement.
  • SPLM/A (IO) leader Riek Machar condemned President Salva Kiir’s recent series of unilateral decisions, accusing the President of ‘acting as if there are no agreements.’