Can an Economic Boom Ensure Peaceful Elections in Côte d’Ivoire?

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On Oct. 25, Ivorians head to the polls for their first presidential election since the disputed 2010 election that left more than 3,000 dead and more than 500,000 displaced. Despite the previous electoral violence and a decade of civil war and political turmoil from 2000-2010, most discussion before this election has been about the country’s remarkable economic resurgence.

Incumbent president Alassane Ouattara is the favourite for this year’s election. PHOTO: Creative Commons.

Once known as the “Paris of West Africa,” the commercial capital Abidjan and the country more generally are again benefiting from high cocoa prices and investor-friendly policies. The World Bank estimates a growth rate of approximately 8.7 percent over the last two years.

Many analysts and Ivorian citizens believe (or hope) that the economic boom will help defuse political hostilities between the opposition parties, led by the Front Populaire Ivoirien, and President Alassane Ouattara’s ruling party, Rassemblement des Républicains. The underlying assumption is that with a growing economy, the ruling party can consolidate political support and reduce the likelihood of a closely contested election. And it does appear that the incumbent president Alassane Ouattara will win big.

Political scientists suggest that it is only when vote margins are very narrow that candidates and their supporters may resort to violence to prevent competitors from voting. Violence provides a way of “redistricting” by eliminating opposition supporters from competitive areas. After voting day, violence can escalate if politicians or supporters protest the poll results.

But can we expect economic growth to yield violence-free elections?

This Week in South Sudan – Week 42

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Monday 12 October UPDF to withdraw from South Sudan: Government of Uganda: ‘Press statement: UPDF withdrawal from South Sudan Oct 12th 2015’ BBC: ‘Ugandan army confirms it will leave South Sudan’ Reuters: ‘Uganda says to start troop exit from South Sudan’ The Wall Street Journal: ‘Uganda to withdraw troops from South Sudan’ SPLA (IO) accused… Read more »

This Week in South Sudan – Week 41

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Monday 5 October The repartition of South Sudan into 28 new states: In a joint statement, the Troika urged Salva Kiir to delay the repartition of South Sudan until the Transitional Government of National Unity is formed. South Sudan opposition politicians and legal experts questioned the legality of the repartition order issued last week by President… Read more »

Russia’s Syrian Entanglement: Can the West Sit Back and Watch?

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Photo: the Kremlin

For observers who are confined by the boundaries of conventional strategic sense, every day of Russia’s military intervention in Syria brings fresh surprises. Indiscriminate strikes against Turkey-backed and CIA-trained opposition groups (which could not possibly be mistaken for ISIS) were followed by deliberate violations of Turkey’s airspace, and then by the spectacular cruise missile salvo from warships in the Caspian Sea. More astonishing turns are almost certain to come, prompting more reevaluation of the power projection capabilities that Russia brings to bear in this high-risk enterprise.

Good morning, Latakia

The intervention, which President Vladimir Putin preferred not to announce in his address to the U.N. General Assembly on September 26, could become an exemplar of achieving maximum political effect from very limited application of force. The three dozen or so combat planes deployed to the hastily prepared airbase outside Latakia perform 20 to 30 sorties a day. That would not have made much of a difference in the U.S.-led air campaign against ISIS that has been going on for more than a year. What makes a difference is targeting opposition groups of various persuasions that were not anticipating such treatment. This tactical surprise is by definition short-term, and in order to continue making a difference — and for the campaign to really resonate — Russia needs to escalate.

  • Read the full text at the Brookings blog Order from Chaos, where it was published 9 October 2015.

Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet – Immediate Thoughts on the 2015 Nobel Peace Prize

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Chair of the Nobel Committee, Kaci Kullman Five, announcing the Nobel peace Prize 2015

The choice of the Tunisian quartet as the receiver of the Nobel peace prize is surprising, but by no means unreasonable. Unlike the case of US President Barack Obama, who received the prize for his intentions rather than his achievements, this time, the prize is awarded to politicians who are in the midst of a difficult transition process. The award should remind us just how remarkable it is that Tunisia’s political elite has managed to avoid armed struggle and civil war, when all the other countries affected by the Arab spring have descended into civil war or renewed authoritarianism.

However, it is important to keep in mind that Tunisia has not completed its democratic transition. Problems abound – let me just mention a few: The alienation of the young generation; the worrisome increase in salafi-jihadist activity; the simmering discontent in the inland regions; and the flawed process of transitional justice which has still only just started. While Tunisia’s political elite deserve praise for their unusual will to compromise, they are not in touch with the Tunisian street. A 2014 Pew poll showed that while fewer people now agree with the statement “democracy is preferable to other kinds of government”, more agree with the statement “Sometimes non-democratic government can be preferable.”

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Santos and Jiménez: Fraternal Enough?

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding

Celebration. The best work for fraternity during the precedent year. Abolition of standing armies. The formation and spreading of peace congresses. Conferring the greatest benefit on (hu)mankind. These where the elements that Alfred Nobel had in his mind when he imagined a peace prize. These elements combined in extraordinary manners should embody Alfred Nobel´s spirit every year.

President Juan Manuel Santos. PHOTO: Creative Commons

Colombia. A Latin American nation with 45 million inhabitants and infamous for a 50 year long armed conflict that internally displaced around seven million people and did force approximately half that number to live in exile. With one foot in the dichotomies of the cold war and the other in the terrain of progress, Colombians now desperately call to put an end to the longest raging war of the Americas. President Juan Manuel Santos and guerrilla leader Timoleón Jiménez – “Timochenko” – are currently following this calling.

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Merkel Should Win the Nobel Peace Prize

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Angela Merkel in April 2015. PHOTO: Creative Commons/Initiative D21 on Flickr

Odds on who’s going to win the Nobel Peace Prize, to be awarded on Friday, are so hard to make that one could easily arbitrage various bookmakers. I’m not a betting man, but I hope the prize goes to German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She’s the favorite now, with average odds of about 6-1, and she deserves to win.

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The Time Has Come for Dr. Denis Mukwege to Win the Nobel Peace Prize

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Last year the Congolese gynecologist Dr. Denis Mukwege was awarded the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought, and he has been nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize several years in a row, frequently hailed among the favorites. Tomorrow the winner of the prize for 2015 will be announced. We think it is high time that the focus is directed towards Mukwege and his co-nominees Mama Jeanne and Mama Jeanette for their outstanding services to survivors of sexual violence, and their efforts to bring those responsible to justice.

Dr. Denis Mukwege received the Sakharov Prize in 2014. PHOTO: Wikimedia Commons

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So, Who Will It Be This Year?

Posted by & filed under Nobel Peace Prize

It is that time of year again. No, I’m not talking about the announcement of this years’ winner of the Nobel Peace Prize, but rather the announcement of my shortlist of favorites. This is a tradition that won’t go away. I keep, as Foreign Policy put it, soldiering on, silently hoping this will be the year I get it just right.

My favourite this year, as many of you will have noticed, is German Chancellor Angela Merkel. She tops a shortlist consisting of five candidates, each of whom I consider to have a fair shot at winning this year’s prize.

Last year’s winners were Malala Yousafzai and Kaliash Satyarthi. PHOTO: Creative Commons

But why keep up with this practice, which started with my predecessor here at PRIO? Not just are the chances of actually predicting the winner very slim (there are hundreds of nominees, most of them secret), but even the announcement of personal favorites and predictions are enough to cause a stir. The committee itself has complained about the noise and ruckus which follows the predictions of self-proclaimed experts (I guess that group includes me), claiming it is a distraction from their work.

However, this activity is important. The way I see it, speculations inspire a debate on what the Nobel Peace Prize should be about. Those of us privileged with spending most of our time studying issues of peace and war have a duty to contribute to that debate. The will of Alfred Nobel, written in 1895, is both brief and succinct. The Peace Prize shall be awarded “to the person who [during the preceding year] shall have done the most or the best work for fraternity between the nations and the abolition or reduction of standing armies and the formation and spreading of peace congresses.”

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This Week in South Sudan – Week 40

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Monday 28 September The UK will send 250 to 300 troops to help the UN peacekeeping forces in South Sudan. The troops are supposed to take an advisory role and assist with engineering work and combat training. According to a South Sudanese foreign affairs spokesman the government is against the increased deployment of UN peacekeeping… Read more »