Reflections on Climate-Conflict Research: More Confusion than Knowledge

Does climate change constitute a threat to peace and security? Many agree that it does. The US administration’s new National Security Strategy, launched last month, portrays climate change as ‘an urgent and growing threat.’

“Drought” by Tomas Castelazo – Licensed under CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons.

And this week, a new study appears to add scientific credibility to this concern, suggesting human-caused climate change contributed to the drought that preceded the Syrian civil war.

So does the Syrian case represent a general pattern, where climate changes and extremes are systematically increasing conflict risk? The short answer is no. But if scientists want to explore these links more closely, there are a few steps they need to take.

Read more at the Carbon Brief, where the full text was published 6 March 2015.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 10

Wednesday 4 March The South Sudanese government condemned the attack on Marialachak village in Abyei, where some 100 armed Misseriya killed 4 civilians, wounded 3 others and prompted some 4000 residents to flee the village. The SPLA has attempted to contain a violent police strike over unpaid salaries in Wau, capital of Western Bahr el… Read more »

Fifty Years Since the Selma March

Yesterday, at the Edmund Pettus Bridge, President Obama and over 100 members of the US Congress celebrated the 50th anniversary of the historic civil rights march in Selma, a turning-point in the non-violent civil rights movement. President Obama was introduced by John Lewis, who with Hosea Williams and others led the march fifty years ago and was severely beaten by the Alabama police.

Celebration at the Edmund Pettus bridge, Selma, 7 March 2015. John Lewis between Michelle and Barack Obama. Photo: The Kansas City Star

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Discussing the Arctic matters in Ottawa

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu provided a useful point of departure for my presentation and discussions in Ottawa on current Arctic matters, asserting that Russia is facing “a wide range of potential security challenges and threats” in the Arctic and is ready to use military means for countering those. It is certainly not the first… Read more »

Murder that Revealed Truth

He had no fear and was hard to miss in any crowd.

As days go by, the pain and shock from the news about Boris Nemtsov murder are turning into sad reflections on Russia’s predicament, and my bottom line goes as following:

Nemtsov was a voice in the wilderness of Russian propaganda and self-deception. And his murder has cut away multiple layers of lies in Putin’s “war is peace” story. Tens of thousands of people who marched last Sunday across the bridge, which the man who refused to live a lie had walked to meet four bullets, may never learn the truth about the hand that pulled the trigger. They know, however, where the responsibility rests for whipping up the hatred currently devastating eastern Ukraine and for turning murder into a “natural” continuation of the condemnation of Russia’s “traitors.” Putin’s regime has mutated into a war clique that cannot find any other foundation besides this irrational and self-destructive hatred; and it cannot stop with a “victory” in Debaltseve or with the murder of one individual who stood tall against their war. Yet, Russia is not inherently a country that hates, and there is hope that Friday night was the darkest hour before the dawn of consciousness.

For the beginning of the article, go to Eurasia Daily Monitor, March 2.

Oil and Military Intervention: Are the Conspiracy Theorists Right?

Since wars in oil-producing countries may affect the price of, and access to, oil, the so-called conspiracy theorists may be correct that the presence of oil may be a weighty factor in favour of intervention.

French troops in Bamako, Mali (2012). Photo: Idrissa Fall. Licensed under Public Domain via Wikimedia Commons

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This Week in South Sudan: 24 Feb- 3 March

Tuesday 24 February The Juba-based Committee for Eradication of Abduction of Women and Children called on the AU and international community to intervene and rescue the 89 boys abducted last week. Foreign Policy Magazine:The United States is threatening sanctions against South Sudan, yet again. The Guardian, in Pictures: South Sudan battles kala azar as the… Read more »

Paving the Road to Democracy or Unleashing Big Brother? The Internet under Dictatorships

Today almost half of China’s 1.3 billion inhabitants are online, along with 85 million Russians and 17 million Saudis. The proportion of people with Internet access in these countries will soon be comparable to that of the United States, Germany and Japan. But what are the political consequences of allowing people living in dictatorships Internet access?

An internet café in Tongyang Town, the county seat of Tongshan County, Hubei. Photo: Vmenkov. CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons

This question has been hotly debated in recent years and for good reason. Access to the Internet fundamentally changes the way people obtain information and communicate with each other. Since authoritarian governments rely on controlling the information flow and restrictions on communication to stay in power, the introduction and proliferation of Internet access could either present a severe challenge to the foundations of their rule, or a promising opportunity to maintain and perhaps strengthen their grip on power.Read More

Between the Mosque and the Temple Mount

Unrest on and around the Al Aqsa Mosque/Temple Mount in Jerusalem last autumn caused the Palestinian president, Mahmood Abbas, to warn that the conflict between Israel and Palestine could escalate into a religious war. 

The site has extremely powerful national and religious symbolic value for both Palestinians and Israelis.

Temple Mount Western Wall with Al Asqua mosque above. Photo: David Shankbone. Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

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Dial ICT for Conflict? Four Lessons on Conflict and Contention in the Info Age

The past decade has witnessed an explosion of interest among political scientists in the outbreak and dynamics of civil wars. Much of this research has been facilitated by the rise of electronic media, including newspapers but extending to social media (Twitter, Facebook) that permit the collection of fine-grained data on patterns of civil war violence. At the same time, a parallel research program has emerged that centers on the effects of new information and communication technologies (ICTs).

2011 Egyptian protests. Photo: Essam Sharaf – Licensed under CC BY-SA 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

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