The INF Treaty Demise: Natural Causes and Bad Blunders

Dan Smith, Director of SIPRI, has published a very informative and thoughtful blog on the apparently imminent breakdown of the INF Treaty. Following up with a week-old second thoughts, I can share this article (adapted from the Order from Chaos, published by the Brookings).

President Reagan and Soviet General Secretary Gorbachev shake hands after signing the INF Treaty.

The discussion of the pending U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty (1987) has fast progressed from the over-dramatized first reactions to even more frantic second-thoughts. Since the political decision has not yet been finalized in a formal notice to Russia, it is essential to sustain sober expert attention on the consequences of the move—which, to be clear, would break down a key pillar of the arms control system. The plea for a proper evaluation of these consequences comes loud and clear from Europe, which is going to find itself on the receiving end of Russian responses. Washington’s argument that Russian violations of the treaty—which bans testing and deployment of ground-based missiles—prompted the U.S. decision on withdrawal is solid, but Russia will still respond and perhaps pro-actively. Moscow has good reasons to assume that while it is ready to lift this ban with the treaty’s demise, the United States and NATO are not.

The Kremlin sought to provoke the Trump administration—known for its eagerness to break international agreements—into rushing the unilateral withdrawal. It has achieved just that, but is hardly in a position to harvest any political dividends.

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Where are the Women in Peace Agreement Implementation?

Zack Lee via Flickr

“In 2020, the United Nations, Members States, regional organizations and civil society will mark the 20th anniversary of resolution 1325 (2000). The lead up to this milestone and the anniversary itself, provide important opportunities to highlight and appraise progress and revise strategies…” (S/2018/900, 2018).

An upcoming event which sets the tone for this year’s Security Council Open Debate on Women, Peace, and Security is the quickly approaching 20th anniversary of Resolution 1325, the first resolution on Women, Peace, and Security. Unfortunately, the UN will be able to report little progress on women’s inclusion in peace agreement negotiation and implementation. The Secretary General’s report is refreshingly frank in its description of the problem—“chilling reading” as observed by the Swedish Foreign Minister in her Open Debate statement on October 25th. Moving forward, the Secretary General has noted an important role for systematic research and names the Kroc Institute’s Barometer Initiative in Colombia as an example.Read More

This Week in South Sudan – Week 43

Tuesday 23 October IGAD deploys Regional Protection Force and establishes a Joint Assessment Team tasked to monitor the security situation of South Sudan. The non-signatory Federal Democratic Party accused the SPLM-IO of attacks in the Upper Nile. IOM South Sudan: “Migration Health Unit Report, July-September 2018”. Wednesday 24 October Parties to the peace agreement are… Read more »

The Needs, Challenges and Power Dynamics of Refugee Resettlement

This fall, the 73rd General Assembly of the United Nations (UN) was held in New York. The 193 UN member states gather annually to discuss, and sometimes act upon, global issues. Refugees were on the agenda in 2018, not only because numbers are historically high (25.4 million at the end of 2017) but also because the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) was there to present its proposal for a Global Compact on Refugees (GCR).

CC : UNHCR/Johan Bävman

The GCR results from a two-year process that began with the adoption of the New York Declaration in 2016, led by UNHCR. The final GCR draft lists three main focus areas for refugee protection: reception and admission; meeting needs and supporting communities; and solutions. The GCR builds on the three traditional durable solutions to refugees – local integration, voluntary repatriation and resettlement – and adds other local solutions and complementary protection to the fold. Resettlement is dealt with in paragraphs 90 to 93 of the GCR and is presented as a mechanism of burden- and responsibility-sharing. Yet it is unlikely that the resettlement commitments put forward in the GCR will significantly change how resettlement is used globally, in spite of increasing resettlement needs.Read More

The Feminist Foreign Policy Agenda: Resolution 1325’s Legacy

On 25 October, the UN Security Council held its yearly meeting on women, peace and security. It has been 18 years since the Security Council adopted resolution 1325, which called on the UN and the international community to include women and their rights and interests in work toward peace and security. The resolution also urged the international community to increase efforts to fight against the use of sexual violence in conflict. How much has been accomplished since 1325 was adopted?

A discussion during Open Days on Women, Peace and Security in Kabul, Afghanistan (Photo: UNAMA, Flickr CC BY).​

Our normative understandings have changed significantly over the last 18 years. The way we understand and define security has shifted. The same is true of conflict prevention, management, and peace building. This normative shift has also had an impact on the attention paid to women’s participation and the advancement of women’s rights in peace and security. Seven follow-up resolutions to resolution 1325 have been adopted, each with even more precise and binding language than the original. Women, peace and security (WPS) has become its own agenda, with ever-growing support.Read More

The Sargentini Report and Hungary: How to Shape a Parallel Reality

Hungary is in the international spotlight again. On 12 September 2018, the European Parliament voted in favor of the Sargentini report – named after the author, the Dutch MEP Judith Sargentini– with a two-thirds majority. The report called for the activation of Article 7 (1) of the Treaty on European Union which can lead to the suspension of a member state’s voting rights as a punitive measure. The report condemned the illiberal developments that have taken place in Hungary over the last eight years. Sargentini found that the regime of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán presents a “systemic threat” to the European Union’s democratic values. Article 7 has also been triggered against Poland, but by the European Commission, not the European Parliament, in order to defend the independence of the judiciary. The Sargentini report lists 12 areas of concern: the functioning of the electoral system, the independence of the judiciary, corruption, privacy, freedom of expression, academic freedom, freedom of religion and association, the right to equal treatment, minority rights, refugees’ rights, and economic and social rights.

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán at a meeting in Moscow. Photo: Kremlin.ru

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This Week in South Sudan – Week 42

Monday 15 October The first meeting of the pre-transitional committee was postponed due to logistical reasons and will now start on the 21 October. A recent documentary by John-Allan Namu accused Paul Malong for committing war crimes during the conflict. Malong strongly denied the allegations. Thursday 18 October Logistics Cluster: “South Sudan – Access Constraints… Read more »

Will climate adaptation move us toward peace?

Climate adaptation has been praised for its potential for contributing to peace. It is highlighted for the potential to remake systems and equip the world to better cope with the impacts of climate change. However, these remain hopeful claims until rigorous research is done on how this might take place and what type of peace… Read more »

Lessons from Camp David

Forty years ago, President Jimmy Carter orchestrated peace between Israel and Egypt; yet the conflict between Israel and Palestinians is further than ever from a solution. Those outcomes are closely linked. There are lessons for President Donald Trump to learn from Carter’s experience, if he is attentive.

An Israeli settlement near Jerusalem, 2005. Photo: Xavier Malafosse / Wiki Commons

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This Week in South Sudan – Week 41

Monday 8 October The information minister Michael Chiengjiek said the situation in the detention center in Juba was resolved peacefully. The government of South Sudan (GoSS) agreed to grant prisoners with lawyers and fair trials. The National Pre-Transitional Committee will conduct their first meeting in Khartoum on the 14-15 October. The South Sudan Unified Front… Read more »