Tag: Ukraine

Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable

Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if the initial “Blitzkrieg” design was based on the assumption that the Ukrainian military would… Read more »

Different Responses to Mobility at Europe’s Borders

In the weeks since Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine significant proportions of Ukraine’s population has gone on the move, the majority of whom are internally displaced. By 29th March 2022, 4 million people had fled Ukraine across borders to neighbouring countries: Poland (2 million in 3 weeks), Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova (some reportedly to… Read more »

Why Widespread Sexual Violence Is Likely in Ukraine

Sexual violence has not received much attention in the coverage of the war in Ukraine. However, reports of cases of sexual violence by Russian or pro-Russian soldiers are just starting to appear. Some human rights organizations in Ukraine have already warned about this risk. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba recently claimed that Russian soldiers have committed… Read more »

Putin’s First Assertive Move On the Energy Front Goes Astray

Combat operations on all key fronts of the Ukraine war continue non-stop, even if without decisive action, but the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline system continues without interruptions. This may appear aberrant given President Vladimir Putin’s well-documented propensity for “weaponizing” energy exports against European customers, most crudely during the… Read more »

Putin May Fall

We can be pretty sure that the likelihood of both a coup and a revolution in Russia is significantly higher today than it was a couple of months ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like becoming a historic event with far-reaching consequences. Alongside the loss of human life and devastation in Ukraine, the Russian economy… Read more »

Как влияет террор на украинское сопротивление – сдерживает или усиливает? Данные опроса из осажденной Украины

Вторжение в Украину, похоже, идет не совсем по плану Кремля. Как и во время Второй чеченской войны, российские войска прибегли к террору в отношении мирных граждан, надеясь, что украинцы сложат оружие. Террор принимает различные формы – от бомбардировок жилых домов до расстрелов эскадронами смерти. Но достигнет ли подобное насилие намеченной цели или—напротив—укрепит готовность украинцев к… Read more »

Russia’s Strategic Confusion in Ukraine Deepens and Widens

For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what the ostracized Russian leadership will… Read more »

Stalled Military Offensive and Unfolding Political Defeat for Russia in Ukraine

One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure of their business activities over… Read more »

Will Terror Deter or Motivate Ukrainian Resistance? Survey Evidence from Besieged Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine does not seem to follow the Kremlin’s plan. Much the same way as in the Second Chechen War, the Russian forces turned to terrorizing ordinary citizens, hoping that Ukrainians will lay down their arms. The terror takes various forms, from bombing of apartment blocks to execution by death squads. But will… Read more »

Чи терор стримуватиме чи спонукатиме українців до опору? Дані опитування в обложеній Україні

Виглядає, що вторгнення в Україну йде не за планом Кремля. Так само, як під час Другої чеченської війни, російські війська почали тероризувати мирних жителів, сподіваючись, що українці складуть зброю. Терор здійснюється у різних формах–від бомбардування житлових кварталів до розстрілів каральними загонами. Але чи досягне таке насильство своєї мети або ж насправді посилить опір українців? Цей… Read more »