This Week in South Sudan – Week 43, Part 1

Monday 20 October

Tuesday 21 October

Wednesday 22 October

Thursday 23 October

When will the South Sudan Peace Process move beyond delays and deadlocks?

The sixth session of Phase II of the IGAD-led multi-stakeholder peace negotiations officially opened on 22 September and adjourned on 5 October 2014. Participants included representatives of the Government of South Sudan, the SPLM in Opposition, the SPLM Leaders (former detainees), civil society organizations and faith-based organizations. Progress has been made in this round of talks, as the participants have some agreement on the structure and functions of the Transitional Government of National Unity (TGoNU) as well as the principle of a federal system of governance. Yet the pernicious deadlocks of the previous sessions continued in this last round.

Despite the progress made on aspects of the proposed TGoNU, the negotiations are not continuing at the expected pace. Both the 60-day deadline set on 11 June and the new 45-day deadlineset on 25 August to establish the TGoNU have expired and remain unmet. Expected to resume on 16 October, the peace talks have also been postponed to 27 October.

Delays in the talks emerged from impasses regarding elements of the TGoNU. The parties disagreed on the extent of the Prime Minister’s executive powers relative to that of the President. The opposition argued that the Prime Minister be given full executive powers, yet the government maintained that this would relegate the President to a ceremonial role. Furthermore, the Government accused the SPLMiO of stalling the talks and not compromising. The SPLMiO has denied these allegations, stating that they are willing to negotiate on power-sharing. Other contentious issues included the length of the transition period, the details of the post-transition period, and form of federalism.

The role of IGAD remains contentious. The Government has urged for moving the talks from Ethiopia to Kenya, claiming that the Chairman of the IGAD Mediation Process, Ambassador Seyoum Mesfin, is inexperienced and that his Kenyan junior would be more competent.

Not unlike the previous round of negotiations, this session has been perceived as lacking inclusivity. The Political Parties Leadership Forum (PPLF), entitled to participate in the negotiations, washindered from travelling. Moreover, the government’s controversial National Security Bill creates uncertainty among opposition parties regarding their freedom of expression and opportunity to participate in South Sudanese politics.

The parties were initially optimistic about the prospects for peace during this round of talks, but fighting continues. Both parties have failed to implement the Cessation of Hostilities (CoH) Agreement of 23 January despite recommitment both in May and most recently in August. The Government in Juba blames the SPLMiO for the recent flare up of the conflict while also criticising  IGAD for not publicly condemning the alleged culprits. The SPLMiO denied the allegations and stated that their troops responded to attacks initiated by government forces and Ugandan troops.

Uganda’s new military cooperation with South Sudan is condemned by the SPLM-Leaders who see it as a tactic to delay the conflictand as a means to strengthen the government’s military campaign against the SPLMiO. Moreover, SPLMiO, which consistently decried the neighbouring country’s involvement in the civil war, have reportedly killed two Ugandan soldiers in the most recent clashes.

Frustrated, the international community has responded in two diametrically opposed ways. Firstly, the Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM), the ruling party in Tanzania, arranged a supplementary confidence building event in Arusha. The party hosted the three main factions of the SPLM with the aim of unifying the movement through studying lessons learned from other liberation movements that have experienced similar conflicts.

Secondly, the United States has taken a firmer stance on the conflict. While IGAD member countries have yet to reach agreement regarding punitive sanctions, the US’s special envoy Donald Booth has intimated that the country would be willing to extend sanctions on additional South Sudanese officials if negotiations continue to dither. Similarly, US Ambassador to the UN, Samantha Powers, warned that unless the stakeholders take the talks more seriously and embrace a spirit of compromise, they would be in danger of UN Security Council sanctions.

The lethargic pace of the peace process is foremost a consequence of the parties’ belief that victory can be obtained on the battlefield. The politics surrounding the inclusion of opposition parties in IGAD negotiations and the opening of another forum in Arusha inadvertently allows both sides to procrastinate over peace-making while pursuing the military option. The parties are however locked in a conflict neither can win: the SPLMiO cannot take power by force as long as Uganda maintains its military support to the government and oil revenues continue to flow into the state’s coffers, but the government is not strong enough to flush out the rebels. It remains to be seen when a window of opportunity for actual peace talks will open amidst the delays and deadlocks.

 

 

Sebabatso Manoeli, PhD student, University of Oxford and Øystein H. Rolandsen, senior researcher PRIO.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 42

Monday 13 October

Tuesday 14 October

Wednesday 15 October

Thursday 16 October

Friday 17 October

Saturday 18 October

Sunday 19 October

 

This Week in South Sudan – Week 39

Monday 22 September

Tuesday 23 September

Wednesday 24 September

Thursday 25 September

This Week in South Sudan – Week 38

Monday 15 September

Tuesday 16 September

Wednesday 17 September

Thursday 18 September

Friday 19 September

Saturday 20 September

Sunday 21 September

State Briefing: Central Equatoria State

  • Population: 1,103,592 Central Equatoria State map
  • State capital: Juba
  • Internally Displaced People (IDP) sheltering in the state: 59,500

Central Equatoria State is the smallest state in South Sudan, but with the second highest population. The capital, Juba, is located in the state which has been a political and military battleground during the current conflict.

The first signs of the violent conflict in South Sudan started in Juba 15 December when fighting broke out in a military garrison in the city. The following day, violence spread to Bilpam, the military headquarter outside Juba, and to residential areas. Leading opposition politicians within the SPLM were rounded up and the residence of the former vice-president, Riek Machar, was attacked by government forces. House searches, violence and looting were reported the following days. The victims were often civilians and by 18 December 8,500 people had sought refuge at the Tomping UNMISS site. The violence in Juba decreased by the end of December, but in March there were new incidents of violence. Clashes also took place outside of Juba. In the north (Mangalla and Terekeka) and south-west (along the Juba-Yei road) of the city people were forced to flee. In Yei, there was fighting within the military barracks.

Greater Equatoria (consisting of Eastern, Western and Central Equatoria States) has been politically divided on the issue of federalism. This is however more a question of strategy rather than goal, because there is no doubt that ideas of devolution of powers and decentralisation of government powers are widely supported in Central Equatoria. The Greater Equatoria Council of Rights announced support for SPLM/A-in-Opposition (SPLM/AiO), but other politicians made it clear that this organisation does not speak on behalf of the region and that they remain loyal to the current government. The recent parliament approval of the establishment of five new counties in Central Equatoria might be seen as a part of this debate. This decision was a confirmation of a directive from Salva Kiir and might indicate that the current SPLM leadership uses governance reform to reward loyalty.

The conflict has forced more than 1.7 million people in South Sudan to leave their homes. This has not only created a difficult situation for those on the move, but also for the communities receiving people. In Central Equatoria, the state governor has complained that cattle keeping groups arriving from Jonglei disrupt farming and threaten local security. The UN has struggled to protect the IDPs searching refuge in Juba. At the moment 29,306 people are sheltered in the Tomping camp and the UN base. The conditions in these camps rapidly deteriorated with the rainy season. The Tomping camp was flooded in April and an additional camp had to be established to take the pressure of the overcrowded areas. The total of IDPs sheltering in the state decreased over the summer, but this seems to be the result of people crossing the border to Uganda, more than of people returning to their homes.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 37

Monday 8 September

Tuesday 9 September

Wednesday 10 September

Thursday 11 September

Friday 12 September

Saturday 13 September

Sunday 14 September

This Week in South Sudan – Week 36

Monday 1 September

Tuesday 2 September

Wednesday 3 September

Thursday 4 September

Friday 5 September

Saturday 6 September

Sunday 7 September

State Briefing: Jonglei State

  • State Capital: BorJonglei map
  • Approximate population: 1,443,500
  • Number of IDPs sheltering in the state: 579,700

Jonglei is the largest state in South Sudan and one of the areas hardest hit by conflict.

Three days after the civil war started in Juba 15 December2013 the state became a battle ground.  The SPLA division led by Peter Gadet attacked Panpandiar and Malual-Chaat military camps outside Bor. Gadet and his forces would subsequently form part of the SPLM/A-in-Opposition (SPLMAiO). The UN received an influx of displaced people during the conflict’s first week, but struggled to provide protection. 19 December armed civilians attacked the UN base in Akobo and killed 30 civilians as well as two UN peacekeepers. The opposition took control of the state capital Bor.  As other strategic cities, Bor changed hands several times in the first few weeks of the conflict. Salva Kiir declared emergency situation in Jonglei 1 January and by the time government forces gained control of the town at least 2,500 people had been killed. The fighting in Jonglei has continued: this spring and summer shots have been exchanged in villages along the road between Bor and Juba and clashes have destroyed villages in Bor and in the counties of Akobo, Yuai and Pibor.

In the north of Jonglei, Small Arms Survey reported that also the SPLA is organized around several power centres where the groups often operate independently. The White Army, consisting of lose network of community defence groups have mobilized more broadly during the conflict and taken part in fighting on SPLAiOs side in a “fragile alliance”. There have also been casualties as a result of salary disputes among the police.

The rebellion of David Yau Yau in the eastern part of Jonglei is one of the conflicts preceding the current war. Yau Yau has demanded greater autonomy for Pibor and Boma, the home of the Murle ethnic group. With a force largely consisting of armed civilians, he has caused instability through raids and attacks. Since early 2012 Yau Yau and the Government of South Sudan were involved in long-winding negotiations which seemed to go nowhere. However, the outbreak of the larger civil war motivated the GoSS to compromise, and in May a peace deal giving Yau Yau control of the Pibor area was signed. This concluded years of conflict, but by making Pibor semi-autonomous, the government has provided the wedge by which federalism may be introduced to South Sudan.

Cholera outbreaks, flooding and food shortages make the humanitarian situation in Jonglei critical. The road network is poor and most of the rural areas become inaccessible to aid agencies during the rainy season (May-October). Security issues are also become more pronounced and the UNMISS reported that aid transport to the areas north of Bor had to be cancelled because of this.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 35

Monday 25 August

Tuesday 26 August

Wednesday 27 August

Thursday 28 August

Friday 29 August

Saturday 30 August

Sunday 31 August