Putin and Kim Look for Opportunities Amid US Elections Turmoil

Posted by & filed under Governance, Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

The US presidential election, which has been dominating the global news, will come to its natural culmination on November 5, even if the outcome remains uncertain for many more days.

Pyongyang, North Korea June 19, 2024. Vladimir Putin is in North Korea for a two-day diplomatic visit. Photo: Contributor/Getty Images

Even in Russia, where war and inflation are major concerns, official sources report that more than 60 percent of adults are following the US elections. Independent polls show that only about 19 percent are following closely, however (TASS, October 31).Read More

473 million Children Live in Conflict Zones

Posted by and & filed under Conflict Patterns

The world is suffering from escalating levels of conflict. The Civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the bombing of Gaza have all significantly contributed to dramatic increase in battle deaths in recent years.

Children in displacement camp in Somalia. Photo: Save the Children

Moreover, 2023 witnessed the highest number of state-based conflicts – 59 – since 1946. While armed conflicts affect people of all ages, children are especially vulnerable to the devastating consequences of war.Read More

Civil Society Participation in International Criminal Justice

Posted by & filed under Governance, Law and Ethics, Non-state Conflict Actors, Ukraine War

The International Criminal Court (ICC) is in trouble.

A brief ‘revitalization’ of the ICC due to its swift reaction to Russia’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine: The Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) visiting Kyiv Region, Ukraine. Photo: Pavlo_Bagmut/ Ukrinform/Future Publishing via Getty Images

To commentators and observers of the Court, one crisis seems to lead on to the next, so that the field of international criminal justice has been described as being in ‘perpetual crisis’.Read More

The Zelensky ‘Victory Plan’ That Evaporated

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Ukraine War

Is the Ukrainian president weakened?

Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump 27 September 2024 in New York City. Photo: Alex Kent/Getty Images

Sir Michael Howard, one of the most renowned war historians of all time, often pointed out that wars were lost or won as a result of events that took place far from the front lines. The past weeks have powerfully reminded us of the truth in Howard’s observation.Read More

Unwinnable Wars, Risks of Escalation, and the Nuclear Taboo

Posted by & filed under Nobel Peace Prize, Ukraine War

The announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize on October 11 coincided with a dangerous phase in two long wars — Israel’s war against Hamas and Hezbollah and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine — that are both poised for escalation.

Hiroshima after Atomic Bomb strike in 1945. Photo: Prisma Bildagentur/Universal Images Group via Getty Images

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Can We Award a Prize for Peace in a World Full of War?

Posted by & filed under Conflict Patterns, Nobel Peace Prize

On Friday 11 October, we will find out the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The announcement will take place against the background of full-scale wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as a record number of other conflicts around the world.

At noon on the day of the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize, a peace dove flies from the windows of the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo, carrying the news of the new Nobel laureate. Photo: Johannes Granseth / Nobel Peace Center

Could the Nobel Committee decide that the situation is so bad that no one is worthy of the Peace Prize this year?Read More

Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail Goes Doctrinal

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced neither surprising nor radical revisions in Russia’s nuclear doctrine on September 25 (Kremlin.ru, September 25).

President Vladimir Putin in Moscow 25 September 2024. Photo: Getty Images

He committed to revising the government’s vague document back in June. In the ensuing months, many “patriotic” pundits have advocated various drastic changes, from formalizing the “escalate-to-deescalate” proposition to breaking the non-proliferation regime (see EDM, June 3; Kommersant, September 11).Read More

Spectre of Escalation Over the Ukraine War

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

The first striking sentence of the Communist Manifesto issued in 1848 – A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of communism – has long become a historical anecdote. Even the leftist fringe cherishes no illusions about the unity of the proletariat.

A different spectre, however, is looming over Europe – the spectre of nuclear escalation of the Ukraine War.

Illustration: GOCMEN / Getty Images

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