New research shows that existing economic forecasting models vastly underestimate the impact of conflict on marginalized countries. National income for war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen could be up to 50 to 70 per cent lower than existing estimates by the end of the century.
Category: Conflict Patterns
The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted
We may never be able to eradicate political violence like what is now seen in Ethiopia, or in the deaths and damage wrought around the Colombo region in Sri Lanka. As Plato noted, “Only the dead have seen the end of war”. But a more realistic goal may be within our grasp: if we can… Read more »
Fewer Children Affected by Conflict, but Conflict Intensity Is on the Rise
Today Save the Children launches its new report Stop the War on Children: The Forgotten Ones. The report is based on PRIO’s sixth annual mapping of children in armed conflict covering the period 1990-2021.
2021 – A Bad Year for World Peace
After a declining trend since 2014 for the number of people killed in armed conflict, approximately 84,000 people died last year. Since 2014, we have seen a global declining trend for the number of people killed in armed conflict, but in 2021 this trend experienced a sharp reversal. New figures from the Uppsala Conflict Data… Read more »
Staying Rather Than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has led to rapid and large-scale displacement. What do we know about the dynamics of conflict and mobility in Ukraine, and how does conflict exposure impact people’s decisions to stay or to go? Drawing on new survey data from Ukraine, we shed light on how people are… Read more »
Why Widespread Sexual Violence Is Likely in Ukraine
Sexual violence has not received much attention in the coverage of the war in Ukraine. However, reports of cases of sexual violence by Russian or pro-Russian soldiers are just starting to appear. Some human rights organizations in Ukraine have already warned about this risk. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba recently claimed that Russian soldiers have committed… Read more »
How Did Europe Get into This Predicament? We Must Look in Our Own Backyard
It’s easy to condemn the opposing party in a polarized situation. But it’s more difficult to exercise self-criticism. It’s easy to condemn the opposing party in a polarized situation. Particularly when there are good reasons for such condemnation, as in the current situation. It’s easy to state that Russia’s lust for power and its violation… Read more »
What Happens to Childhood Vaccine Rates in Conflict Zones? This Analysis Found Some Surprises
We examined more than 200,000 records in 15 African countries. As more coronavirus vaccines begin to reach the developing world, global health authorities are pointing out the need for other vaccines as well. UNICEF recently launched a record $9.4 billion emergency appeal to help more than 327 million people — including 177 million children — affected by humanitarian crises and covid-19.
The New Pattern of Conflict in Myanmar
A new conflict pattern has appeared in Myanmar. Amidst a spiraling economic, social and health crisis, armed fighting is no longer confined to ethnic minority areas but has cropped up in cities and regions where the ethnic Bamar are in majority. They see themselves as pursuing a nation-wide resistance. Preventive diplomacy is needed to stop… Read more »
1 in 8 Children Are at Risk of Being Recruited by Armed Actors
The recruitment and use of children as soldiers is one of the United Nations Security Council’s ‘six grave violations’ against children in times of war, as well as one of the most significant consequences of armed conflict in terms of children’s wellbeing. On 30 November, Save the Children launched its new report Stop the War… Read more »