Month: March 2022

Putin May Fall

We can be pretty sure that the likelihood of both a coup and a revolution in Russia is significantly higher today than it was a couple of months ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like becoming a historic event with far-reaching consequences. Alongside the loss of human life and devastation in Ukraine, the Russian economy… Read more »

Как влияет террор на украинское сопротивление – сдерживает или усиливает? Данные опроса из осажденной Украины

Вторжение в Украину, похоже, идет не совсем по плану Кремля. Как и во время Второй чеченской войны, российские войска прибегли к террору в отношении мирных граждан, надеясь, что украинцы сложат оружие. Террор принимает различные формы – от бомбардировок жилых домов до расстрелов эскадронами смерти. Но достигнет ли подобное насилие намеченной цели или — напротив —… Read more »

Russia’s Strategic Confusion in Ukraine Deepens and Widens

For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what the ostracized Russian leadership will… Read more »

Representation Is Not Enough: Women Briefing the UN Security Council

Inviting more women to brief the United Nations Security Council helps include them in decision-making on international peace and security. But despite progress, challenges remain. The Council must integrate recommendations from women’s voices into Council decisions. As the struggle over existing norms in multilateral systems has hardened, women’s rights have become a battleground in the… Read more »

Stalled Military Offensive and Unfolding Political Defeat for Russia in Ukraine

One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure of their business activities over… Read more »

Security Logics of Africa’s Divided Position on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Half of the nation states who chose not to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly’s extraordinary session on March 2nd were member states of the African Union (AU). In the event, 25 of the AU’s 55 member states either abstained, did not vote, or voted against the resolution. This apparent… Read more »

Will Terror Deter or Motivate Ukrainian Resistance? Survey Evidence from Besieged Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine does not seem to follow the Kremlin’s plan. Much the same way as in the Second Chechen War, the Russian forces turned to terrorizing ordinary citizens, hoping that Ukrainians will lay down their arms. The terror takes various forms, from bombing of apartment blocks to execution by death squads. But will… Read more »

Чи терор стримуватиме чи спонукатиме українців до опору? Дані опитування в обложеній Україні

Виглядає, що вторгнення в Україну йде не за планом Кремля. Так само, як під час Другої чеченської війни, російські війська почали тероризувати мирних жителів, сподіваючись, що українці складуть зброю. Терор здійснюється у різних формах – від бомбардування житлових кварталів до розстрілів каральними загонами. Але чи досягне таке насильство своєї мети або ж насправді посилить опір… Read more »

Transactional Engagements: Middle Eastern Responses to the Ukrainian War

Russia’s war in Ukraine has been met with global condemnation drawing NATO and the EU closer together in coordinating collective responses. In contrast to this coordinated front among US, French and German responses, it is worth drawing attention to the mixed regional responses among states in the Middle East for whom the war can have… Read more »

Climate Policy Must Be Inclusive to Be Successful

Climate justice is essential if we are to succeed in preventing global warming of 1.5 to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This is a point that receives far greater attention in the new Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report than in previous reports. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published… Read more »