The heart of the Middle East, known for its intricate geopolitics, ever-evolving conflicts, and tumultuous history, is once again in the throes of change. As I stand here in Oslo, my thoughts are irresistibly drawn to Lebanon, my homeland, and the crises that have unfolded in the region to which I am closely connected. Amidst… Read more »
Month: October 2023
Putin and Xi Meet as Hidden Differences Mount
Foreign trips are now rare occasions for Russian President Vladimir Putin. As such, it was highly important to him to hold a position above that of the other participants at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on October 17 and 18. Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping obliged by making Putin the guest… Read more »
Lebanon’s Impending Catastrophes
Lebanon is teetering on the brink of an abyss that it is not equipped to deal with. If Hezbollah drags Lebanon into a war, the consequences will be catastrophic for a country that is already deep in economic and political crisis. At the time of writing, Hezbollah, together with Palestinian groups in southern Lebanon, has… Read more »
Two Wars Set a Triple Test for Western Unity
International attention has shifted its focus from Ukraine to the conflict in Gaza and its potential impact on global governance. The Western front faces challenges in navigating peace efforts in both regions. The war in Ukraine has all but disappeared from the international news stream since the brutal attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel on October 7,… Read more »
The Next Surge of Conflict in the South Caucasus Is Still Preventable
The tragic exodus of the Armenian population from the Nagorno Karabakh region has closed a chapter in the long saga of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The disappearance of this self-proclaimed republic provides the opportunity to bring these bitter hostilities to an end; it takes, nevertheless, plenty of wishful political thinking to believe that a… Read more »
Reflections on Humanitarian Negotiation
This blog provides reflections on the study and practice of humanitarian negotiation, delving into ethical considerations such as power, representation, compromise, competition and tacit aspects of negotiation. People have probably always held humanitarian negotiations in human history as they have asked and argued for the right to help people in war, disaster and epidemics. In… Read more »
UNRWA: In Anticipation of a Double Collapse
There is a looming infrastructural collapse of parts of UNRWA, the UN’s relief agency for Palestinian refugees. Such a collapse could bring down the Palestinian Authority (PA) in its wake. That would be a catastrophe for the situation on the occupied West Bank. On the Israeli-occupied West Bank, things are going from bad to worse…. Read more »
On Duty: The Aftershock of Police Violence in France
The killing in late June of 17-year-old Nahel Merzouk in Paris, with a bullet fired point blank through a car window by a policeman, prompted a wave of rioting across cities in France. The damage from the riots was considerable, but more considerable still has been the aftershock at all levels of society. Initially, this… Read more »
Moscow Seeks to Benefit From Fighting in Gaza
Russia’s war against Ukraine crosses the 600-day mark this week, and the fighting between Israel and the Hamas terrorists based in Gaza is on its tenth day. The effects of the latter on the former are still emerging. The interplay between these two major breakdowns in the world order is certain to be strong. Russian… Read more »
A New Geopolitical Chapter for the Middle East?
In recent years, several Arab countries have adopted a more pragmatic attitude towards Israel. Some have even signed official agreements. But much geopolitical progress is now in danger of being reversed – and not only within the region. Over recent years, the Palestinians have become increasingly isolated in the Arab part of the Middle East…. Read more »