The advent of COVID-19 and the global lockdown of 2020 allowed us to write an article in which we highlighted that the post-COVID world would remain unknown and uncertain[1]. One thing is certain: we are currently experiencing a transitional phase between the world order established after 1945 and a new, yet undefined global order. This transitional process is always characterized by disorder and chaos, as order emerges from crisis.
Illustration: Getty Images
Donald Trump’s rise to power in the United States exemplifies this transition. The post-1945 world was marked by American hegemony, the dominance of capitalism (championed by the United States) over communism (championed by the USSR), and NATO and the West’s victory at the end of the Cold War. This unipolar world saw democracy, economic freedom, and American culture define the United States’ global dominance.
But why does America now consider this world order, in which it was the dominant power, obsolete, and why does it believe a new order is necessary?
Why Is the United States Now a Driver of Global Disorder?
According to Marc Rubio, “The post-war world order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon used against us… Once again, we are called to create a free world out of chaos[2].” This statement by the U.S. Secretary of State sheds light on the current situation. While the order established after World War II was largely shaped by the United States, its critics, such as Russia and China, see it as an instrument of American domination. Ironically, America, once the main defender of this order, is now one of its main opponents.
To understand this shift, two key factors must be considered:
- The rise of new economic and military powers.
- The political-economic alliances and regulations established by the U.S. after World War II and the Cold War, which are now perceived as burdens by certain American circles.
A Fragmented Globalization Benefiting Emerging Powers
The rise of new economic powers such as China, Russia, and India is reshaping global geopolitics. These countries have leveraged the rules defined by the West to strengthen their international positioning and develop cumulative strategies in economic, technological, and diplomatic transactions.
While the post-war world order enabled the United States to establish its hegemony, it was after the fall of the Berlin Wall that they intensified their influence by emphasizing democracy and economic freedom (free market). This policy established new international rules promoting the free movement of goods and capital through the WTO. However, this same free-trade framework accelerated the rise of new economic and military powers.
Today, China, once the “world’s workshop,” is the second-largest global economic power. With an abundant workforce and a mercantilist policy, it is omnipresent in international economic transactions and seeks to redefine global norms. Russia, marginalized after the Cold War, has undertaken a process of military, energy, and mining reconstruction. The invasion of Ukraine and ineffective Western sanctions have exacerbated global disorder and exposed the failure of Western containment strategies. India and other emergent countries leverage their demographic size and domestic markets to weigh in on global geopolitical restructuring and create a more inclusive world order[3].
American Hegemony: A Burden for American Taxpayers?
NATO, USAID, VOA, and other institutions that once reinforced American hegemony are now perceived as excessive economic burdens by some political circles in the United States. Key figures in the Trump administration, including Trump himself and Elon Musk, have criticized these institutions as outdated and costly. NATO, created to counter the USSR, is now a resource-consuming military machine, largely funded by American taxpayers[4]. USAID and VOA have served as instruments of American soft power, promoting democracy and a market economy. However, today, countries that were once communist and anti-Western, such as China and Russia, are using globalization’s rules to expand their influence.
This reversal illustrates how Western domination tools have been repurposed by emerging powers.
The Transatlantic Rift
The Trump administration accelerated the transatlantic rift by challenging the existing world order. For Trump, this order benefits others more than it does the United States: Europe does not pay enough for its defense, China widens the U.S. deficit, and The Global South Nations threaten the dollar. According to him, we are no longer in an era of international treaties but rather in a power dynamics-driven world where dominance is key.
This vision contradicts that of Europe, which clings to its alliances and a model based on international law. This divergence became evident in the handling of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, where Trump sought to negotiate directly with Russia without consulting the EU or Ukraine.
Economically weakened, dependent on foreign energy resources, and facing a demographic crisis, Europe confronts a brutal and unpredictable world.
Could this fragility be an opportunity for Africa to break free from a historically Eurocentric international community and play a strategic role in this global disorder?
- This blog post is published together with the post Africa in the Global Disorder of Trumpism
The Authors
- Bintu Zahara Sakor is a Doctoral Researcher at PRIO
- Vamo Soko is a Geopolitics Analyst and Consultant at Sackson Consultant Group focusing on Africa. He has a Master’s degree in Political Science and International Development from University of Paris – Sorbonne. He also holds a Business Administration and Management degree from INSEAD
Sources
- Vamo Soko and Bintu Zahara Sakor – Power Cycle in International Politics: Africa’s Role in this Game ( Posted November 15, 2022 )
- John Glaser – Is U.S. Primacy a Burden or a Benefit? : https://www.cato.org/blog/us-primacy-burden-or-benefit
- Anthony H. Cordesman – NATO and the Claim the U.S. Bears 70% of the Burden: A False and Dysfunctional Approach to Burdensharing
- Max Bergmann – The Transatlantic Alliance in the Age of Trump: The Coming Collisions
- Dadush, Uri, and William Shaw. Juggernaut: How Emerging Powers Are Reshaping Globalization. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2011.
- Sako, V. S. (no date) “Is Intra South Cooperation and Partnership a Key Factor in Rebooting Multilateralism?”
- Sako, V. S. (2020) “COVID-19 : Une phase de transition entre le monde de l’après-guerre froide et un nouveau monde inconnu.”
- Pierre Haski, – Geopolitic
- Lucie Beraud-Sudreau and Nick Childs, “The US and its NATO allies: costs and value,” Military Balance Blog, International Institute of Strategic Studies, July 9, 2018
Notes
[1] Sako, V. S. (2020) “COVID-19 : Une phase de transition entre le monde de l’après-guerre froide et un nouveau monde inconnu.”
[2] Pierre Haski, – Geopolitic
[3] Sako, V. S. (no date) “Is Intra South Cooperation and Partnership a Key Factor in Rebooting Multilateralism?”
[4] Lucie Beraud-Sudreau and Nick Childs, “The US and its NATO allies: costs and value,” Military Balance Blog, International Institute of Strategic Studies, July 9, 2018