Israel Has Escalated Its Shadow War Against UNRWA. What Happens Now?

Sacks of flour at a UNRWA distribution center in Deir Al-Balah, in the central Gaza Strip, November 2024. Photo: Majdi Fathi/NurPhoto via Getty Images

UNRWA a free target

After Hamas’ terror attack on 7 October 2023, Israel has increasingly accused UNRWA of supporting terrorism. The anger in Israel has led to suspicion and dehumanization, and the organization has become vilified.

Much of the sequence of events over the past year is well known. After Israel accused 12 UNRWA employees of participating in the 7 October attack, the USA, UNRWA’s largest donor, froze its financial support. So did 16 other donor states. UNRWA immediately dismissed the 12 employees. After a UN report confirmed that UNRWA had extensive control mechanisms in place, whilst also demanding that these be strengthened, most donors returned, except for the USA.

The timing of the terrorism allegations has received less attention. They were launched on the same day as the International Court of Justice’s ruling on a “real and imminent risk” that Israel’s warfare in Gaza violated rights under the Genocide Convention. On the same day, bots on social media promoted claims to US congressmen, diverting attention from the ICJ case.

It is also less well known that over the past year, Israel has attempted to paralyze UNRWA legally, politically, economically, and with violence. UNRWA’s Israeli bank account has been blocked, Israel has threatened to evict UNRWA from its headquarters in Jerusalem, and the headquarters has been set on fire by Israeli extremists. The two pieces of legislation that were passed in the last week of October has been in preparation since before the summer. The news that UNRWA is being banned was dramatic, but not surprising.

This happens in a context where Israel has extensively violated International Law by closing Gaza’s border crossings and thus dramatically limiting the amount of humanitarian going aid into Gaza. The majority of the residents have been displaced from their homes and 44,000 Palestinians have been killed, 70 percent of whom are women and children. Israel has laid large parts of Gaza in ruins, two-thirds of UN schools have been bombed and many of these schools have housed internally displaced persons. 237 UNRWA employees have been killed. In the shadow of the Gaza war, Israeli invasions of refugee camps on the West Bank have resulted in major destruction and many of the more than 700 killed are Palestinian refugees.

The ban on UNRWA violates the ICJ’s March order that Israel must allow life-saving emergency aid into Gaza. It also violates the ICJ’s July 2024 ruling that the Israeli occupation is illegal and must cease. This obliges the UN not to recognize as lawful the legal situation arising from the occupation.

Not a new story

The campaigns against UNRWA are not new. From the 2000s, attacks increased, especially from the Israeli right. Two types of accusations dominate: allegations of antisemitism in the textbooks UNRWA uses and allegations of support for terrorism. One goal has been to influence international donors to stop economic support.

For over ten years, Netanyahu has voiced accusations against UNRWA, and publicly stated that the organization should be dismantled. In line with Israel’s right-wing shift, the accusations have become mainstream. After 7 October, Israel has taken a number of steps towards removing UNRWA. This development stands in stark contrast to the Israeli security service having seen UNRWA as an important stabilizer under the six-decades long occupation.

The underlying reason for the attacks is a desire to remove UNRWA, because the organization represents the unresolved Palestinian refugee question from 1948, when two-thirds of the Palestinian local population became refugees after the ethnic cleansing of Palestine. UNRWA’s opponents claim that UNRWA perpetuates the Palestinian refugee question, and that UNRWA’s closure would mean that the refugee question and the right of return are terminated.

Legally, this does not stand the test. It is the absence of a political solution to the refugee question that perpetuates the Palestinian refugee question, and the right of return and the refugee status exist independently of UNRWA’s existence.

Israel, the UN and the Palestine question

During his speech to the UN General Assembly in May, Israel’s UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan demonstratively shredded a page from the UN Charter from 1946 from the podium, in response to the General Assembly voting by a large majority to support a Palestinian state.

When Israel bans UNRWA from operating and terminates the 1967 agreement, the country violates the UN Charter, making it a direct attack on the UN. The Charter states that all member states shall allow the UN to perform its services, and immunity and privileges shall be granted, in accordance with the UN Convention from 1946 so that the UN can operate independently.

In the absence of a political solution to the refugee question, the General Assembly has renewed UNRWA’s temporary, humanitarian and development-oriented mandate every three years, confirming existing UN resolutions, including the right of return and the principle of Palestinian self-determination. Israel is now attacking established principles of international law for resolving the conflict.

If the legislation is implemented, aid to Gaza could be strangled and all UNRWA operations in the occupied territories paralyzed. Israel will reject any coordination, international staff will no longer have immunity, UNRWA may lose access to buildings, and Israel may deny all border crossings in and out of the occupied territories. This will quickly lead to a dramatically worsened humanitarian crisis in Gaza and have serious consequences in the West Bank.

The ban on UNRWA is one of the most drastic single steps in a strategy to attack humanitarian organizations and limit emergency aid. A long list of countries and organizations have stated that there are no real alternatives to UNRWA. UNRWA’s large number of locally employed staff, buildings, organizational capacity and trust surpasses all other organizations, and other humanitarian actors depend on UNRWA’s role to operate in Gaza. The ban on UNRWA may help fill out the picture of Israel’s long-term strategy: A fragmented and shrunk Gaza under full Israeli control, without UNRWA.

If UNRWA can no longer provide emergency aid, education and health services, Israel will – according to international law – be responsible for providing these services to the civilian population. There is speculation about whether Israel is planning for another organization or private security firms to take over UNRWA’s relief work in Gaza.

Education and health services are UNRWA’s core tasks. Before 7 October last year, more than 330,000 children attended UNRWA’s 288 primary schools in Gaza, and many attend the 96 schools in the West Bank. A big question is who will provide these services if UNRWA is dismantled. One possibility is that Israel will pressure the already weakened Palestinian authorities (PA) to take over UNRWA’s services in the West Bank.

If the legislation is implemented, it could mean an escalation of Israeli attacks on the West Bank. The closure of UNRWA could lead to increased Palestinian resistance, which in turn could lead to further Israeli military attacks. Many fear that if UNRWA is gone, the way is open for more displacements and land grabs.

With Trump as US president, it is unlikely that the country will resume support for UNRWA. Continued financial support for UNRWA will be a crucial signal from UN member states. Many influential countries have protested against Israel’s attack on UNRWA. Will they do more in the coming weeks to prevent the dismantling of UNRWA?

• Jørgen Jensehaugen is a Senior Researcher at PRIO
• Kjersti G Berg is an Associate Professor at NLA University College Bergen
• This text was first published in Norwegian by Aftenposten 14 November 2024