Against all strategic rationale, Russian troops keep pushing Ukrainian defenses beyond Avdiivka and Bakhmut, paying a heavy price in casualties for every inch gained. The primary reason for these self-destructive attacks is to maintain the initiative necessary to prove Russia’s upper hand in the “long war.” This illusion of control gives Russian President Vladimir Putin… Read more »
Author: Pavel Baev
NATO’s New Activity Makes Russia Anxious and Angry
Every Russian stereotype about the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been disproven by the alliance’s surge of activity in its 75th year. Moscow portrays NATO as an aggressive and indecisive institution, rigidly controlled by the United States, and disunited.
Terrorism Undercuts Putin’s Political Agenda
The shock from the March 22 terrorist attack on Crocus City Hall is continuing to generate angst and confusion throughout Russian society while failing to inspire unity. The Russian population may have grown accustomed to the perpetual shocks caused by the war in Ukraine, but the people are unprepared for the return of the specter… Read more »
Post-“Election” Russia Sinks Deeper into War Quagmire
The official results from last week’s Russian presidential election were precisely what the Kremlin ordered, but they have hardly brought the incumbent Vladimir Putin much satisfaction. Falsifications in the results were so blatant that Putin’s desire to prove overwhelming public support for the continuation of his autocratic rule has remained unfulfilled. Instead of discipling the… Read more »
Presidential ‘Elections’ Cannot Restore Putin’s Authority
This week, from March 15 to 17, Russia will hold presidential election. Canceling the elections would be entirely natural for the repressive autocratic regime that has matured in Moscow. The government already has all the enforcement structures it needs to suppress protests. Putin could easily justify the move by arguing that Russia is a unique… Read more »
Peacemaking for Ukraine: The Swiss Track, the Chinese Pretence, and the Antalya Diplomacy Forum
Battles in the Donbas trenches and across the Black Sea waters keep raging as the belligerents persist with their strategies of attrition. Neither President Volodymyr Zelensky’s defiant presentation at the Munich Security Conference, nor President Vladimir Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly contained any indication of readiness to compromise. Notwithstanding this determination to keep the war going, three separate… Read more »
Russian Unity and Western Discord Converge in Putin’s Imagination
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s annual address to the Federal Assembly last Thursday was grander in length and style than his usual domineering performances. He did not attempt to persuade the audience of loyal bureaucrats that victory in Ukraine is near.
Russian Society Disfigured and Degraded by the ‘Long War’
Russians still do not call the full-scale invasion of Ukraine what it actually is — a war. Now in its third year, the war continues to be referred to in Russia by its awkward abbreviation SVO, short for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s so-called “special military operation.” Russian war propaganda pushing this narrative is everywhere.
Russia’s Post-Putin Future Becomes Darker
This year’s Munich Security Conference recently took place on February 16 but was soon overshadowed by other events, which is becoming a tradition for the annual conference. In early February 2022, most high-level participants did not believe a Russian attack on Ukraine was imminent. In 2023, many expected decisive success in Ukraine’s much-anticipated counteroffensive. This… Read more »
Russian Economy Feels Bite of Attrition
On February 1, the European Council unanimously approved the 50 billion euro aid package to Ukraine. Although this package will not alter the course of the battles for Avdiivka or Kupyansk as it does not include funding for armor or ammunition, it will deliver a boost to Ukraine’s struggling economy. In a long war of… Read more »