Lebanon is teetering on the brink of an abyss that it is not equipped to deal with. If Hezbollah drags Lebanon into a war, the consequences will be catastrophic for a country that is already deep in economic and political crisis. At the time of writing, Hezbollah, together with Palestinian groups in southern Lebanon, has… Read more »
Category: Regions and Powers
The Next Surge of Conflict in the South Caucasus Is Still Preventable
The tragic exodus of the Armenian population from the Nagorno Karabakh region has closed a chapter in the long saga of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The disappearance of this self-proclaimed republic provides the opportunity to bring these bitter hostilities to an end; it takes, nevertheless, plenty of wishful political thinking to believe that a… Read more »
UNRWA: In Anticipation of a Double Collapse
There is a looming infrastructural collapse of parts of UNRWA, the UN’s relief agency for Palestinian refugees. Such a collapse could bring down the Palestinian Authority (PA) in its wake. That would be a catastrophe for the situation on the occupied West Bank. On the Israeli-occupied West Bank, things are going from bad to worse…. Read more »
On Duty: The Aftershock of Police Violence in France
The killing in late June of 17-year-old Nahel Merzouk in Paris, with a bullet fired point blank through a car window by a policeman, prompted a wave of rioting across cities in France. The damage from the riots was considerable, but more considerable still has been the aftershock at all levels of society. Initially, this… Read more »
Moscow Seeks to Benefit From Fighting in Gaza
Russia’s war against Ukraine crosses the 600-day mark this week, and the fighting between Israel and the Hamas terrorists based in Gaza is on its tenth day. The effects of the latter on the former are still emerging. The interplay between these two major breakdowns in the world order is certain to be strong. Russian… Read more »
A New Geopolitical Chapter for the Middle East?
In recent years, several Arab countries have adopted a more pragmatic attitude towards Israel. Some have even signed official agreements. But much geopolitical progress is now in danger of being reversed – and not only within the region. Over recent years, the Palestinians have become increasingly isolated in the Arab part of the Middle East…. Read more »
Russia Does Not Want Peace – At Least, Not Now
Only the Kremlin can take a decision that would end the war in such a way as to achieve a credible and long-lasting peace in Europe. What does the world look like when viewed from Moscow? This is the question asked by the president of Norges Forsvarsforening (the Norwegian Defence Association – NFF) Lieutenant General… Read more »
Putin Uses Valdai Club to Repeat Nuclear Bluff
Last week, the annual gathering of the Valdai International Discussion Club was held in Sochi, Russia. Today, this conference does not deserve the attention such events used to have a decade ago, when many Western experts saw it as a unique opportunity to gain access to Russian policy-makers, particularly President Vladimir Putin. The only topic… Read more »
Putin and Kim Meet at Russian Cosmodrome
On September 13, two armored trains met at a cosmodrome in Russia’s Far East. While this might read like the beginning of a joke, it is in fact an accurate description of last week’s meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Due to personal security concerns, the location of… Read more »
We Could Have Prevented Thousands of Deaths in Libya
As Libya’s death toll rises due to the massive floods triggered by Hurricane Daniel, it’s normal to wonder if such a catastrophe could have been prevented. New research published this month gives a better understanding of how and why countries affected by armed conflict are more vulnerable to disaster.