As the one-year mark of President Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war against Ukraine neared, the Russian army failed to score anything resembling even a minor victory to provide the Russian leader with a talking point for his public performances. In his address to the Federal Assembly on February 21, Putin said nothing about the prospects of… Read more »
Category: Security
Before Decisive Battles, Russia’s War Against Ukraine Reaches a Political Culmination
As the one-year mark approaches, the Russo-Ukrainian war shows little movement along the battle lines but plenty of action along the political dimension, which may be approaching a culmination point. First came the meeting of Ukraine’s key supporters in the Ramstein format; then the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defense ministers, to… Read more »
NATO Should Pursue Peace over Victory in Ukraine. Here Is Why and How.
In his foundational book on the causes of war, Kenneth Waltz observed that “[a]sking who won a given war […] is like asking who won the San Francisco earthquake. That in war there is no victory but only varying degrees of defeat is a proposition that has gained increasing acceptance in the twentieth century.” These… Read more »
Towards a Chip-Alliance?
Long-lasting trilateral negotiations between the US, the Netherlands and Japan are expected to result in joint efforts to limit China’s domestic production of chips. The decision represents a symbolic win for the Biden Administration, but further negotiations will determine the scope and significance of the emerging “Chip-Alliance”. On January 27th, news agencies reported that the… Read more »
Russia Seeks to Circumvent the Advancing Western Alliance in Africa
The broad coalition built last week for supplying main battle tanks to Ukraine signifies a new surge in strengthening the unity of the US-led Western alliance, and Russia has had no response to this upgrade. It will take a few months to train and equip new armored battalions in the Ukrainian army for breaking through… Read more »
Davos Meets Ramstein: Russia’s Global Standing Takes a Hit
Two events of profound, and maybe even decisive, importance for the outcome of the Ukraine war happened last week: the Davos gathering of the World Economic Forum and the meeting of top defense officials from some 50 members of the Western coalition at the Ramstein air base in Germany.
Ukraine Is Not Melos, and Russia Is Not Athens
Let’s keep Thucydides out of Russia’s war against Ukraine “Ukraine is confronted with a stark choice: fight on through a bitter winter with death raining from above, or initiate negotiations with Russia under unfavourable terms. Two-and-a-half millennia ago, the leaders of the Greek island of Melos confronted a similar choice.” The quote is from the… Read more »
Fear and Loathing in the UN Security Council
The war in Ukraine has changed the atmosphere and the dynamics within the UN Security Council. The five permanent members and veto powers of the Council distrust each other, and diplomats fear that the war will have long-lasting negative effects on other matters. How did Norway and the other elected members of the Security Council… Read more »
As War Against Ukraine Lengthens, Russia Shifts Top Brass
Combat operations in Ukraine have largely contracted to a 10-mile battleground between Bakhmut and Soledar. During this fierce fighting, the command structure of Russia’s “special military operation” was suddenly upgraded on January 11. General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff, is now in charge, and the previous commander, General Sergey Surovikin, has… Read more »
Better Arms for Ukraine, Zero Response from Russia
No cease-fire can possibly mute artillery barrages in Donbas, but the intensity of political battles exceeds the intensity of this cannonade. Russian stubborn and costly attacks on Bakhmut may yield only tactical success, but in geo-strategic terms, it is the shift in Western positions on supplying heavy arms to Ukraine that signifies the most significant… Read more »