Russia’s ninth annual Eastern Economic Forum was held last week on September 3–6 in Vladivostok. It was intended to promote Moscow’s commitment to pivoting its economic policy toward the Asia-Pacific, but instead exposed the shortcomings of this ambition. The Kremlin is not only demanding the redeployment of all combat-capable Russian units to the battlefields in… Read more »
Category: Ukraine War
Putin Puts Forth Resolute Indifference to Kursk Debacle
The impact of Ukraine’s August 6 offensive operation into Kursk oblast remains an open strategic question following four weeks of increasingly intense and fluid fighting (see EDM, August 14, 15). Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first reaction to this incursion was clearly misinformed by intelligence assessments portraying it as just another tactical raid.
Prisoner Exchanges and the Prospects for Peace Talks
The timing of the unprecedented exchange of prisoners between Russia and the West on August 1 remains a difficult question. The final decision was most likely made in the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s red carpet reception of the released Russian spies along with an official honor guard leaves few in doubt of that (RBC,… Read more »
Moscow Seeks to Drive ‘Peace’ Wedge into Trans-Atlantic Unity
Russian President Vladimir Putin has not demonstrated any discernible change over the last few weeks in his maximalist stance on how to end his war in Ukraine. Nevertheless, many other governments and organizations continue to propose ideas and initiatives for how to end this devastating conflict, though not all of these are conducive to Ukrainian… Read more »
Russia Seeks to Maintain Battlefield Initiative on Eve of NATO Summit
The ever-changing battlefield dynamics of Moscow’s war against Ukraine have made it impossible for predictions to be accurately tied to the political calendar. This unpredictability is particularly acute in the lead-up to one of the most critical events of 2024 — the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington on July 9–11. Recently, Russia’s… Read more »
Can High-Level Diplomacy Turn the Tide of the Ukraine War?
World politics in the first half of June is set to be enlivened not only by elections in such major powers as India, Mexico and South Africa, but also by a heavy concentration of international summits, conferences and visits. Agendas are rich and diverse, as many global issues demand collective action, but one 27-months old… Read more »
Russia Attempts New Anti-Peace Offensive
Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued reassurances of his readiness to negotiate an end to his war against Ukraine many times over the past 27 months, which Kyiv has duly rejected as attempts to pressure it to capitulate (see EDM, January 29, February 6, 26, April 15). A maneuver executed last week may, however, signify a change in Russia’s… Read more »
War of Attrition Perturbs Putin’s Elites
Last week was full of shocks for Moscow. The United States finally approved $61 billion of aid to Ukraine, the European Parliament passed a resolution rejecting the legitimacy of Russia’s March presidential elections, and Russian Deputy Defense Minister Timur Ivanov was arrested in Moscow on accusations of bribery. The last event was the most astounding,… Read more »
The Black Sea Region Endures Beyond the Theater of War
Many strategic surprises have come from the combat operations on the Black Sea theatre in the last 25 months, and they keep coming as the long Russo-Ukrainian war continues to evolve, while the prospect of peace is barely visible through its fog. In the domain of politics, one surprise is that the Black Sea region… Read more »
Multi-Prong Peace Offensive Pushes Putin Into Corner
Against all strategic rationale, Russian troops keep pushing Ukrainian defenses beyond Avdiivka and Bakhmut, paying a heavy price in casualties for every inch gained. The primary reason for these self-destructive attacks is to maintain the initiative necessary to prove Russia’s upper hand in the “long war.” This illusion of control gives Russian President Vladimir Putin… Read more »