Lebanon’s Impending Catastrophes

Posted by & filed under Middle East, Regions and Powers, Security

Lebanon is teetering on the brink of an abyss that it is not equipped to deal with. If Hezbollah drags Lebanon into a war, the consequences will be catastrophic for a country that is already deep in economic and political crisis.

At the time of writing, Hezbollah, together with Palestinian groups in southern Lebanon, has attacked targets in Israel for almost two consecutive weeks and Israel has responded to the attacks.

Lebanese women, wave Hezbollah flags after a rally in support of Palestinians in Gaza on October 20, 2023 in Beirut, Lebanon. Photo: Manu Brabo / Getty Images

So far – and here things could change rapidly – the border clashes have remained within the limits of an understanding between Israel and Hezbollah as to what kinds of combat can take place without further escalation. Read More

Two Wars Set a Triple Test for Western Unity

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Security, Ukraine War

International attention has shifted its focus from Ukraine to the conflict in Gaza and its potential impact on global governance. The Western front faces challenges in navigating peace efforts in both regions.

In Granada October 05, the shift of attention to Gaza was two days away (the summit of the European Political Community (EPC)). Photo: Alex Camara / Europa Press via Getty Images

The war in Ukraine has all but disappeared from the international news stream since the brutal attack by Hamas terrorists on Israel on October 7, and this shift of attention is a concern for President Volodymyr Zelensky, who expressed unequivocal support for Israel.Read More

The Next Surge of Conflict in the South Caucasus Is Still Preventable

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

The tragic exodus of the Armenian population from the Nagorno Karabakh region has closed a chapter in the long saga of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh are evacuated in September 2023. Photo: Astrig Agopian / Getty Images

The disappearance of this self-proclaimed republic provides the opportunity to bring these bitter hostilities to an end; it takes, nevertheless, plenty of wishful political thinking to believe that a peace treaty could be swiftly negotiated.

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Reflections on Humanitarian Negotiation

Posted by & filed under Humanitarianism, Law and Ethics

This blog provides reflections on the study and practice of humanitarian negotiation, delving into ethical considerations such as power, representation, compromise, competition and tacit aspects of negotiation.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

People have probably always held humanitarian negotiations in human history as they have asked and argued for the right to help people in war, disaster and epidemics. In 2004, a how-to manual from the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue formally named and analysed the practice. This was followed by a second manual from OCHA in 2006 that focused on negotiating with armed groups.Read More

UNRWA: In Anticipation of a Double Collapse

Posted by & filed under Middle East, Regions and Powers

There is a looming infrastructural collapse of parts of UNRWA, the UN’s relief agency for Palestinian refugees. Such a collapse could bring down the Palestinian Authority (PA) in its wake. That would be a catastrophe for the situation on the occupied West Bank.

A view of Aida refugee camp. The camp, in the West Bank town of Bethlehem, was built in 1950 by UNRWA. Photo: Issam Rimawi / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

On the Israeli-occupied West Bank, things are going from bad to worse. The two-state solution has become a near-impossible vision, violence is rising and Palestinian desperation is becoming ever more obvious.Read More

On Duty: The Aftershock of Police Violence in France

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security

The killing in late June of 17-year-old Nahel Merzouk in Paris, with a bullet fired point blank through a car window by a policeman, prompted a wave of rioting across cities in France. The damage from the riots was considerable, but more considerable still has been the aftershock at all levels of society.

Protestors climb on street signs during the protest to the death of 17-year-old Nahel, who was shot in the chest by police in Nanterre on June 27, 2023. Photo: Ibrahim Ezzat / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Initially, this included signs of a new public receptiveness to the grieving, angry reminders from those on the brunt of racialized violence who have long been calling for radical reform of police practices in France.

But the pendulum quickly swung the other way: first, into outrage at the levels of destruction of public and private property as the riots ensued, and second, buoyed by this outrage, an increasingly virulent emphasis on the moral and social failure of families, on the need for more law and order, and the rapid normalizing of the notion that French youth need to be ‘recivilized’ in a broad-brush indictment aimed at young people from the poorest districts whose parents and grandparents typically arrived in France as workers through the different phases of colonial and postcolonial immigration.Read More

Moscow Seeks to Benefit From Fighting in Gaza

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

Russia’s war against Ukraine crosses the 600-day mark this week, and the fighting between Israel and the Hamas terrorists based in Gaza is on its tenth day. The effects of the latter on the former are still emerging.

Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza. Photo: Ahmed Zakot / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images

The interplay between these two major breakdowns in the world order is certain to be strong. Russian President Vladimir Putin already is seeking opportunities to benefit from the new turmoil.Read More

A New Geopolitical Chapter for the Middle East?

Posted by & filed under Middle East, Regions and Powers

In recent years, several Arab countries have adopted a more pragmatic attitude towards Israel. Some have even signed official agreements. But much geopolitical progress is now in danger of being reversed – and not only within the region.

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Riyadh on October 15, 2023. Photo: Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Anadolu via Getty Images

Over recent years, the Palestinians have become increasingly isolated in the Arab part of the Middle East. In 2020, the Abraham Accords brought the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco closer to Israel. And in recent weeks, there have been rumours that the regional superpower, Saudi Arabia, was close to concluding a similar agreement. But now the events of last weekend are forcing Middle Eastern countries to adopt clearer positions on the Palestinian conflict.Read More

Russia Does Not Want Peace – At Least, Not Now

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

Only the Kremlin can take a decision that would end the war in such a way as to achieve a credible and long-lasting peace in Europe.

What does the world look like when viewed from Moscow?

This is the question asked by the president of Norges Forsvarsforening (the Norwegian Defence Association – NFF) Lieutenant General (Ret.) Arne Bård Dalhaug, who served as the Senior Manager for the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine from 2016 to 2019.

Vladimir Putin during a meeting with military personnel of Russian Air Forces Base on October 12, 2023, in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Photo: Contributor / Getty Images

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Does the Situation in Iran Call for a Second Nobel Peace Prize?

Posted by and & filed under Gender, Nobel Peace Prize

Since the last time an Iranian woman was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, the situation in Iran has only got worse. This does not mean that the previous award was a failure.

Friday’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement of the winner for 2023 was an astonishing occurrence. Not because this year’s Nobel Peace Prize was unexpected or unique, quite the opposite: it is almost a carbon copy of the prize awarded exactly 20 years ago.

The 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi in 2007. Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl / Nur Photo via Getty Images

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