Myanmar’s Ethnic Minorities Marginalized More

For the first time in over half a century, Myanmar has a government with a popular mandate, led by the National League for Democracy (NLD). Although the Myanmar armed forces still have extensive political powers under the 2008 constitution, and may seriously curtail the independent action of the new government, the inauguration of President Htin Kyaw represents a radical increase in the internal and international legitimacy of the Myanmar State.

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Paradoxically, this coincides with a setback for the country’s ethnic minorities and their struggle for autonomous status. Myanmar’s ethnic minority organisations now face a double marginalisation, militarily as well as politically. It is a new era for Myanmar, but there is trouble ahead for ethnic minorities.

There are two main tiers in Myanmar’s peace process. The first is the process of negotiations between the government and the many ethnic armed groups. The second tier is a wider process of including ethnic minorities in political decision-making at the Union, state and regional levels. The success of the first tier is tremendously important for the second.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 14

Tuesday 5 April The SPLA denied reports that their forces had attacked SPLA (IO) positions in Mundri county, Western Equatoria State. Wednesday 6 April The SPLA admitted carrying out attacks against opposition forces in Wau County, Western Bahr el Ghazal State. However, they denied any violations of the peace agreement, saying they targeted criminals not part of… Read more »

Suicide Bombing ≠ Religious Fervor

 

Is it just religious fanatics who blow themselves up as suicide bombers?

Bernt Hagtvet, Professor of Political Science at the University of Oslo, has been active in the Norwegian media lately, stating that only religion (he focuses mostly on Islam) brings the fervor to commit suicide attacks as part of a political struggle – or “only religious totalitarian movements have capabilities to create a fanaticism strong enough to suicide.”

This is not true.

Firstly, there is ample evidence showing that a deterministic relationship between suicide missions and having a religious agenda or ideology is wrong. It is right that more suicide bombers today belong to Islam than any other religion, but their general levels of religiosity and particularly knowledge of Islam is up for debate. Scott Akran in his article published in Science, for example, reported that suicide terrorists are generally only moderately religious, hence not necessarily the epitome of radical religious fervor. Many have tried to offer simple explanations of suicide terrorism, which is likely to be a misguided effort.

Secondly, suicide violence is used by a number of groups, not all Muslim, and not all religious. Expert on South Asian violent movements, Iselin Frydenlund, asked the timely question of whether the overriding focus on Islam for us to overlook that suicide bombings have also been carried out by Christians, Hindus and secular martyrs? Her op. ed. in the major Norwegian newspaper Dagbladet and post at the PRIO Blog point to statistics of suicide attacks that were carried out in the period 1980-2001. It shows that 60 percent of attacks were carried out in the Muslim part of the world, but that a third of these attacks were carried out by groups with a secular orientation, such as the Kurdish liberation movement PKK. The group that has carried out the most suicide attacks in the period 1980-2001 is the Tamil Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. LTTE accounted for more than 40% of all suicide attacks during this period. While the LTTE is a secular movement, the LTTE soldiers were not Muslims, but Hindus and Catholics. For more statistics on the development of suicide terrorism, see the Global Terrorism Database.

These examples show the need for more comparative and empirical studies. More importantly, however, it shows with even more clarity the need for focus on sound evidence in the public debate. Both researchers and media should get better here. In collecting and presenting such evidence, researchers must try as much as possible to distance themselves from seeing the world through the glasses of the current day and letting the contemporary and the media focused version of reality overshadow the true nature of a phenomenon.

Benjamin Acosta, Journal of Peace Research 2016; 53: 180-196

Yes, today, many suicide bombers are Muslims, and many suicide bombers refer to religion as justification for their acts. The havoc and human suffering they cause cannot be underplayed or negated. However, the victims are mostly among their Muslim brethren. Research by Benjamin Acosta, published last month in Journal of Peace Research, shows that most suicide attacks have involved an Islamist organization directly striking a Muslim target. Rather than resulting from religious fervor, Acosta argues, suicide tactics are used for organizational survival, and constitutes a “fashionable” tactic that spreads within networks of similar organizations as less powerful organizations want to increase their status by imitating more powerful groups.

Furthermore, most suicide attacks, as many as 95%, are carried out by individuals in their own home country (e.g. study by Kruyger and Laitin in Terrorism, Economic Development, and Political Openness. Eds. Philip Keefer and Norman Loayza. Cambridge University Press, 2008). This does not mean, however, that only Muslims and/or individuals motivated by religious doctrines or ideas become suicide bombers. Simplified narratives that misrepresent what the world looks like, equating suicide terror with religion, surface again and again and are unhelpful if we want to understand the root causes of such violence.

The EU-Turkey Refugee Deal is Costly – Especially for the Refugees

Syrian and Iraqi refugees arrive from Turkey to Skala Sykamias, Lesbos island, Greece. Photo: CC-BY via Wikipedia

The agreement reflects the EU’s self-interest just as much as Turkey’s, but takes little account of the interests and rights of the refugees.

On Friday 18 March, Turkey and the EU concluded a deal designed to put an end to refugees’ use of the sea route to travel from Turkey to Greece, because the route is costing too many lives, and because the EU and Turkey want to get the flood of refugees under control.

The majority of the refugees and migrants who have arrived in Europe in recent months have travelled via this route.

The EU’s website claims that the agreement “removes the incentive to seek irregular routes to the EU, in full accordance with EU and international law”.

The core of the deal is a “one in, one out” system: for every Syrian refugee the EU sends back across the Aegean to Turkey, another will be resettled from Turkey to the EU.

Humanitarian organizations have been strongly critical of the deal, with Amnesty International’s UK director, Kate Allen, stating: “This is a dark day for the Refugee Convention, a dark day for Europe and a dark day for humanity.”Read More

This Week in South Sudan – Week 13

Tuesday 29 March The Government of Sudan issued a directive ending cross border movement in the south, effectively closing its border with South Sudan. MTN South Sudan announced it is cutting jobs and cancelling expansion plans in face a U.S. dollar shortage and falling subscriptions due to the country’s economic crisis. Four people were killed… Read more »

The Politics of Fun in Egypt

Phot: Jacob Høigilt, PRIO

Yes, this little piece will relate to Asef Bayat’s gem of an article ‘Islamism and the politics of fun.’ But first a comment on the current goings-on in Egypt.

The last time I visited the country, in early February, the news about the murder of Giulio Regeni broke. The Italian PhD student was tortured for a week and then killed. The Egyptian security authorities deny that they have been involved, but nobody believes them, just as nobody believes them when they claim they do not abduct Egyptian citizens – the so-called ‘forced appearances.’ The murder of Regeni was chilling to Western scholars, because this is the first time the Egyptian authorities have targeted one. The message is clear: stay away, don’t meddle in our affairs (Regeni wrote about the independent labour organizations in Egypt). The Egyptian authorities’ urge to be left alone is understandable, as they continue to crush what remains of civil society in the country. This week the case against foreign-funded NGOs was reopened. Human rights and women’s rights activists, and even employees of charities, face travel bans, asset freezes and prosecution on ridiculous charges as Egypt probes new depths of authoritarianism.Read More

India’s Nuclear Behavior

India’s Nuclear Policy has been the subject of debate for many decades now. A non-signatory to the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty, the country has pursued an atomic bomb amid regional tensions and precarious relations with its neighbors. India has also used its nuclear weapon to bolster its national identity tied to the concept of ‘security’.

An Indian Agni-II intermediate range ballistic missile on a road-mobile launcher, displayed at the Republic Day Parade on New Delhi’s Rajpath, January 26, 2004. Photo: Antônio Milena

Despite all this, the state has been provided tacit support for its nuclear program and given back door entry into the Nuclear Suppliers Group. As a recognized nuclear weapons state, India has been integrated economically as well as politically into the international system.This text explores the different facets of India’s nuclear behavior that provide explanations for the special status the state has received.Read More

This Week in South Sudan – Week 12

Tuesday 22 March Officials in Morobo County, Central Equatoria State claimed unknown gunmen kidnapped three SPLA wildlife officers on duty and stole dozens of machine guns. Foreign Affairs Minister, Barnaba Marial Benjamin, denied reports that he had conceded the disputed Abyei region to Sudan by referring to the area’s residents as non-South Sudanese. President Salva… Read more »

This Week in South Sudan – Week 11

Monday 14 March The South Sudanese government is allegedly planning to “temporarily” close down many of its embassies abroad due to lack of funding. The government later dismissed these claims, stating they are only reducing the number of embassy staff. Wednesday 16 March The SPLM (IO) announced 23 of their top generals are expected to… Read more »

Is The War on Drugs a Humanitarian Crisis?

Humanitarian actors increasingly look to frame the failure of the War on Drugs as an imperative for renewed engagement in Latin America. When leaders meet at UNGASS 2016 in April, legalization will be central in discussions, but issues of humanitarian encroachment should also be on the table.

Bricks of cocaine, a form in which it is commonly transported. Wikimedia Commons.

In Latin America, the four-decade long War on Drugs has had devastating impacts on the health, safety and wellbeing of rural communities, and imposed de facto states of siege in heavily militarized urban areas where government forces engage narco-trafficking groups. In reflecting on the legacies of disappearances, murders and displacement, the Drug Policy Alliance calls the Drug War ‘a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions’. In October 2015, the Colombian Ombudsman’s Office declared that fighting between paramilitaries over drug trade routes was causing a humanitarian crisis. Such instances reflect how the War on Drugs in Latin America has encouraged a highly militarized yet unsuccessful approach to drug control, leading to violence, displacement and human suffering throughout the region.

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