Are Myanmar’s Monks Hindering Democratization?

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The upcoming general elections in Myanmar raise the question of religion’s role in democratisation processes. Previously Buddhism has been an important force in favour of democracy, but in the 2015 election campaign strong Buddhist forces are supporting the military-aligned Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP). This is their democratic right, but it may hinder further political reforms and democratisation in Myanmar.

The Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu, leader of the 969 Movement, during a procession in Mandalay in September. PHOTO: John Zaw

Buddhist nationalism has flourished since political reforms were introduced in 2011. Leading Buddhist monks have formed the Organization for the Protection of Race and Religion, generally known by the abbreviation ‘MaBaTha’, which has the aim of promoting Buddhist interests. MaBaTha monks and nuns have been the driving force behind, among other things, four controversial laws designed to ‘protect race and religion’. The aim of these laws is to protect Buddhist interests, but they are seen by some women’s rights groups and religious minorities as extremely discriminatory.

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This Week in South Sudan – Week 44

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Monday 26 October The United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights will deploy a 10-member assessment mission to South Sudan following reports of rights abuses. The SPLM/A (IO) signed the agreement on security arrangements during a transitional period, despite their earlier refusal to do so last month at the security workshop in Addis Ababa. The… Read more »

Unarmed Protests Force Leaders from Power Twice as Often as Violent Uprisings

Posted by & filed under Governance

 

Research lends support to the Nobel Committee’s rationale for its award of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2015; the revolution in Tunisia shows how non-violent protest can assist in democratization.

Protesters on Avenue Habib Bourguiba, downtown Tunis on 14 January 2011, a few hours before president Ben Ali fled the country. VOA Photo/L. Bryant

The award of the Nobel Peace Prize to the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet came as a surprise to most observers. But the committee’s rationale – which cites the so-called Jasmine Revolution and the role of civil society in the democratization of Tunisia, together with the potential for inspiring processes of democratization in other countries – is closely linked to the findings of research conducted in recent years into non-violent protests, democratization and the spread of democracy in a global perspective.

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A Predicted Tragedy

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

The last time that the Palestinians staged a collective uprising in anger and frustration was in 2000. Why is there a new wave of violence now?

Palestinian boy and Israeli soldier in front of the West Bank barrier. Photo: CC BY 2.0

The Palestinians have been betrayed by everyone: by their own leaders, by Israel, and by the international community. Their sense of hopelessness has bred the recent uncoordinated knife attacks. The fundamental problem – one that is spoken of all too seldom by diplomats and politicians – is Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territory.Read More

This Week in South Sudan – Week 43

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Monday 19 October The Government of South Sudanese stated it rescued 50 police and civilians from rebel groups in Western Equatoria. Tuesday 20 October Security for aid workers in South Sudan has sharply deteriorated, as there have been increased incidences of violence, particularly a new trend of sexual violence. IGAD appointed former president of Botswana, Festus Gontebanye… Read more »

When Internet Access Becomes a Weapon

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Social Media has rightly been celebrated as an empowering tool for ordinary citizens to mobilize against repressive rulers, and make marginalized voices heard. But a crucial question remains unanswered: why should power-hungry states, with de facto control over access to the Internet, impassively concede to defeat?

Experts have called the civil war in Syria the most socially mediated civil conflict in history. Illustration: Hani Abbas

 

The simple answer is: they do not. Behind the scenes, autocratic governments across the world have been extremely active in developing and refining a whole arsenal of tools to surveil, manipulate and censor the digital flow of information in their own country.Read More

Can an Economic Boom Ensure Peaceful Elections in Côte d’Ivoire?

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On Oct. 25, Ivorians head to the polls for their first presidential election since the disputed 2010 election that left more than 3,000 dead and more than 500,000 displaced. Despite the previous electoral violence and a decade of civil war and political turmoil from 2000-2010, most discussion before this election has been about the country’s remarkable economic resurgence.

Incumbent president Alassane Ouattara is the favourite for this year’s election. PHOTO: Creative Commons.

Once known as the “Paris of West Africa,” the commercial capital Abidjan and the country more generally are again benefiting from high cocoa prices and investor-friendly policies. The World Bank estimates a growth rate of approximately 8.7 percent over the last two years.

Many analysts and Ivorian citizens believe (or hope) that the economic boom will help defuse political hostilities between the opposition parties, led by the Front Populaire Ivoirien, and President Alassane Ouattara’s ruling party, Rassemblement des Républicains. The underlying assumption is that with a growing economy, the ruling party can consolidate political support and reduce the likelihood of a closely contested election. And it does appear that the incumbent president Alassane Ouattara will win big.

Political scientists suggest that it is only when vote margins are very narrow that candidates and their supporters may resort to violence to prevent competitors from voting. Violence provides a way of “redistricting” by eliminating opposition supporters from competitive areas. After voting day, violence can escalate if politicians or supporters protest the poll results.

But can we expect economic growth to yield violence-free elections?

This Week in South Sudan – Week 42

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Monday 12 October UPDF to withdraw from South Sudan: Government of Uganda: ‘Press statement: UPDF withdrawal from South Sudan Oct 12th 2015’ BBC: ‘Ugandan army confirms it will leave South Sudan’ Reuters: ‘Uganda says to start troop exit from South Sudan’ The Wall Street Journal: ‘Uganda to withdraw troops from South Sudan’ SPLA (IO) accused… Read more »

This Week in South Sudan – Week 41

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Monday 5 October The repartition of South Sudan into 28 new states: In a joint statement, the Troika urged Salva Kiir to delay the repartition of South Sudan until the Transitional Government of National Unity is formed. South Sudan opposition politicians and legal experts questioned the legality of the repartition order issued last week by President… Read more »

Russia’s Syrian Entanglement: Can the West Sit Back and Watch?

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Photo: the Kremlin

For observers who are confined by the boundaries of conventional strategic sense, every day of Russia’s military intervention in Syria brings fresh surprises. Indiscriminate strikes against Turkey-backed and CIA-trained opposition groups (which could not possibly be mistaken for ISIS) were followed by deliberate violations of Turkey’s airspace, and then by the spectacular cruise missile salvo from warships in the Caspian Sea. More astonishing turns are almost certain to come, prompting more reevaluation of the power projection capabilities that Russia brings to bear in this high-risk enterprise.

Good morning, Latakia

The intervention, which President Vladimir Putin preferred not to announce in his address to the U.N. General Assembly on September 26, could become an exemplar of achieving maximum political effect from very limited application of force. The three dozen or so combat planes deployed to the hastily prepared airbase outside Latakia perform 20 to 30 sorties a day. That would not have made much of a difference in the U.S.-led air campaign against ISIS that has been going on for more than a year. What makes a difference is targeting opposition groups of various persuasions that were not anticipating such treatment. This tactical surprise is by definition short-term, and in order to continue making a difference — and for the campaign to really resonate — Russia needs to escalate.

  • Read the full text at the Brookings blog Order from Chaos, where it was published 9 October 2015.