World War II Becomes a Chinese War

70 years ago, Japan signed an agreement of formal surrender on an American warship in Tokyo Bay. The anniversary of this event will be marked in Beijing today, September 3rd by a massive military parade in which Chinese and Russian soldiers march together.

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping at the BRICS summit 2015. Photo: Wikimedia Commons

President Xi Jinping’s most important guest during the parade will be Russian president Vladimir Putin. Thanks to Putin, the memory of World War II has shifted from Europe to Asia. Xi and Putin will celebrate their joint victory over German Nazism and Japanese militarism.

When Russia invaded Crimea and sent troops into eastern Ukraine last year, an ice front was created in Europe that made it impossible for Russia and Ukraine to commemorate the Great Patriotic War together. Xi was the only high-profile guest during the parade held in Moscow on 9 May. Angela Merkel arrived only afterwards.

The partnership between Russia and China is now being reaffirmed. West and Central Europe’s wartime history has been put in parentheses. Even the US War in the Pacific War is played down. One result of the “Asiafication” of the memory of war is that less emphasis is being placed on reconciliation. Instead, World War II is being used to emphasize the lines of conflict in the world today.

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The Dangers of Alarmism

Threat identification and threat inflation are clearly important elements in international affairs. However, determining which threats and fears people and policymakers will embrace as notable and important is difficult. Thus, the American public and its leaders have remained remarkably calm about the dangers of genetically modified food while becoming very wary of nuclear power. The French see it very differently. In the United States, illegal immigration from Mexico is seen to be a threat in some years, but not in others. The country was “held hostage” when Americans were kidnapped in Iran in 1979 or in Lebanon in the 1980s but not when this repeatedly happened during the Iraq War or in Colombia. Milošević in Serbia became a monster worthy of attention and alarm, but not Mugabe in Zimbabwe or SLORC in Burma or Pol Pot in Cambodia or, until 9/11, the Taliban in Afghanistan.

John Mueller at the PRIO Annual Peace Address.

However, it does seem that every foreign policy threat in the last several decades that has come to be accepted as significant has, in the process, been unwisely exaggerated. As a result, over the last several decades, alarmism has been prominent in thinking about international security. When successfully generated, alarmism very frequently leads to two responses that are serially connected and often prove to be unwise, even dangerous. First, a threatening event is treated not as an aberration, but rather as a harbinger indicating that things have suddenly become much more dangerous, will remain so, and will become worse—an exercise that might be called “massive extrapolation.” And second, there is a tendency to lash out at the threat and to overspend to deal with it without much thought about alternative policies including ones that might advocate simply letting it be. There is, as Noël Coward once put it in different context, a “dread of repose.” I would like to examine alarmism during the Cold War about the nature of the Soviet threat and alarmism after 9/11 about the threat presented terrorism. I conclude with a discussion about the relevance of deterrence to the process.

With this I do not wish to suggest that all fears are unjustified or that international threats are never underestimated. In fact, I suspect that some of the tendency to inflate threats in the period after World War II derives from the fact that the threat presented by Adolf Hitler’s Germany had been underappreciated in the period before it (and Hitler was keen to help: in virtually all of his foreign policy speeches of the 1930s, he spoke of his ardent desire for peace). The post-war proclivity toward exaggeration and overreaction may also stem in part from the traumatic prewar experience with Japan when there had been something of a tendency to underestimate its capacity and, in particular, its willingness to take risks. Robert Jervis has suggested that “those who remember the past are condemned to making the opposite mistakes.” The pre-war experience with Hitler and with Japan may have been too well remembered.

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Putin’s Pivot to Asia: Profit-Free, but Problem-Rich

The bilateral meeting in Beijing will be demonstratively cordial but loaded with mutual disappointment. Putin cannot fail to see that his hopes for harvesting rich dividends from closer Russian ties with China have failed to materialize and delivered him to a position of one-sided dependency. Xi, meanwhile, has few doubts about the trajectory of Russia’s crisis and probably understands that Putin’s mismanagement brings risks of a catastrophically hard landing. While Russia’s aggressive assault on the European security system is not helpful for China’s plans regarding the evolutionary transformation of the global order. Vladimir Putin has announced his intention to address the United Nations General Assembly in late September; and in the absence of the likes of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Hugo Chavez or Muammar Qaddafi, he might receive a rousing ovation for the most anti-American and “down with the Western hegemony” speech. But China will likely hardly be entertained.

This is the bottom line from my article in Eurasia Daily Monitor, August 31.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 35

Monday 24 August The South Sudanese government admitted that the SPLA (IO) unexpectedly overran the strategic town Lainya, in central Equatoria state on Monday morning. According to a county official, four people were killed and five others seriously wounded following a revenge attack at Ayen cattle camp in Rumbek North county, Lakes state. Tuesday 25… Read more »

Russia’s Arctic illusions

Russia appears firmly set on its course of militarization of the Arctic. In a region where economic activities are mostly declining and where environmental challenges are on the rise, Russia appears to be engaged in a one-sided arms race. It is glaringly obvious to observers outside the Kremlin that Russia’s severe economic recession makes this… Read more »

Small and Far Between: Peacekeeping Economies in South Sudan

New open access article by Øystein H. Rolandsen in Journal of Intervention and Statebuilding. This work was supported by the Research Council of Norway (RCN) under the NORGLOBAL programme. Abstract The massive expenditure on UN peacekeeping missions combined with a significant commitment of personnel and infrastructure creates ‘peacekeeping economies’ within host societies. We need to understand… Read more »

NEWS UPDATE: IGAD+ Peace Agreement – 27.08.15

President Salva Kiir signed the IGAD+ peace agreement 26 August 2015. For further information see a collection of news articles below from various media outlets commenting on the event: International Media: Al Jazeera: ‘South Sudan president signs peace deal with rebels.’ New York Times: ‘South Sudan’s President Signs Peace Deal With Rebels.’ The Guardian: ‘South Sudan’s President… Read more »

Cracking the Glass Ceiling: Hillary Rodham Clinton and U.S. presidential politics

In a now legendary 2008 Saturday Night Live skit, comedians Amy Poehler and Tina Fey opened the show by imitating Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin and unsuccessful Democratic contender for the nomination Hillary Clinton, respectively. The skit could have been a harmless imitation game, with Fey and Poehler simply doing their brilliant impressions of each candidate’s personalities. Instead, it was an extended comment by two female comedians on what they saw as the unacceptable sexism in the 2008 campaign. As Fey wrote in her memoirs Bossypants:

“This sketch easily could have been a dumb catfight between two female candidates. What Seth [Meyers] and Amy [Poehler] wrote, however, was two women speaking out together against sexism in the campaign… you all watched a sketch about feminism and you didn’t even realize it because of all the jokes. […] Suckers!” (2012: 216-17)

That the 2008 presidential cycle was “rife with overt [gender] bias,” as political scientist Jennifer Lawless has written should not be a controversial claim (2009: 71). If you think it is, then I invite you to have a look at this rather shocking compilation of TV clips that the Women’s Media Center made in 2008. The compilation shows established TV news anchors focusing on Hillary Clinton’s clothes, hair and style rather than on her position on the issues.

A caricature of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Rodham Clinton. PHOTO: CC/Flickr

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Return Migration: Pakistan as a Return Migration Destination

Karachi Airport. Photo: Moin via Flickr.

Return migration to Pakistan is diverse. It ranges from return mobilities of naturalized citizens and those born abroad to so-called ‘voluntary assisted returns’ and deportations of migrants without regular status. Pakistan receives returnees from the Middle East, as well as from Europe and North America, which reflects broader Pakistani migration patterns. This policy brief explores the multiplicity of return migration to Pakistan. From a return destination perspective, it presents some of the dilemmas faced when governing return migration.

  • Return migration to Pakistan is extremely diverse; legal status and citizenship are important distinctions among returnees.
  • Pakistanis abroad account for about 4 per cent of the total Pakistani population of 185 million. Most migrate to the Middle East. Remit-tances are key to migration’s salience as a societal concern in Pakistan.
  • Pakistan as a return destination is characterized by instability and socioeconomic stagnation but also future potential.
  • The governing of return migration to Pakistan is complicated by the multiplicity of return.

… Read more in a recent Policy Brief from the project ‘Possibilities and Realities of Return Migration’ (PREMIG)

See also: Return Migration: Polish Migrants to Norway

Return Migration: Polish Migrants to Norway

How do Polish Migrants in Norway Consider Return Migration? 

Metro in Warsaw. Photo: Giuseppe Milo, via Flickr

After Poland’s accession to the European Union in 2004 and the substantial emigration that followed, return migration was an expectation widely shared by observers in Poland and abroad. Return migration has been modest, however, even in the wake of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Due to the post-accession migration wave, Poles comprise the largest immigrant group in Norway. Although Polish migrants in Norway were also expected to stay for short periods of time, they are for the most part not returning to Poland. This Policy Brief explores why, presenting five common perspectives on return migration among Poles in Norway.

  • A majority of recent Polish migrants is not returning to Poland any time soon.
  • A segment of Polish migrants sustains mobility over time, working in Norway but living in Poland.
  • As of 2015, males make up two thirds of Polish migrants in Norway despite the increasing settlement of families.
  • Return considerations have changed rapidly, with many migrants postponing return indefinitely and focusing on settlement.
  • Not all Polish migrants want to settle permanently; return migration and onward mobility remain as alternatives.

… Read more in a recent Policy Brief from the project ‘Possibilities and Realities of Return Migration’ (PREMIG)

See also: Return Migration: Pakistan as a Return Migration Destination