The Victory of Mustafa Akıncı in Northern Cyprus gives Hope to Turkish Cypriots of a Better Future

Posted by & filed under Civilians in Conflict, Conflict Patterns

Northern Cyprus held the second round of its presidential election on 26 April, with Mustafa Akıncı defeating the incumbent President, Derviş Eroğlu. Rebecca Bryant writes on what the result of the election might mean for the people of northern Cyprus and future negotiations with the Greek Cypriot-controlled Republic of Cyprus. She notes that while Akıncı’s victory has been met with euphoria on both sides of the island, all indications are that he will not only work toward a federation, but will also seek to defend the interests of Turkish Cypriots.

Turkish flag alongside the flag of the self-declared Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus. Credit: Nick Leonard (CC-BY-SA-3.0)

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What Would Have Been New about Bombing Migrant Boats?

Posted by & filed under Humanitarianism, Migration

GUE/NGL (flickr)The European Union has made it clear that bombs were not part of the plan for war against people smuggling after all. “No one is thinking of bombing,” said Federica Mogherini, EU foreign policy chief, yesterday. The alleged plans for bombing had already caused widespread alarm and protest.

But what would have been new about bombing the boats that might have  ferried migrants and refugees across the Mediterranean? On the one hand, such action would have been unprecedented and dramatic — the ultimate militarization of migration control.

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After the swaggering celebrations, a “Now what?” moment for Russia

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Chinese troops marching on the Red Square.

The extraordinary pomp around the celebration of the V-Day made it possible for Putin to sustain the momentum of mobilization created by last year’s Crimean anschluss. Now that the fanfare and fireworks have fallen silent, this momentum may dissipate—and Putin, who has made himself into the central figure in militarized festivities, can ill afford such a slackening of “patriotic” fervor. The heavy emphasis on the decisive and glorious victory won by the “grandfathers” sits poorly with the evasive and ambivalent discourse on the on-going war with “brotherly” Ukraine. For the aggressively “patriotic” propaganda, it is hard to explain the point of demonstrating all the tanks and missiles, if there is no intention to use them for achieving another great victory for Russia. Reckoning with reality is not an option for Putin, but the stock of other useful “national projects” is quite exhausted.

This is the final passage from the article in Eurasia Daily Monitor, May 11.

This Week in South Sudan – May 1-11

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Friday 1 May The South Sudanese government accepted the involvement of the Troika countries in the IGAD + negotiations. The SPLA claimed they have regained control of rebel-held areas in Nhial Diu Payam, south-west of Unity state’s capital, Bentiu. The SPLA (IO) dismissed the claims, saying they tactically withdrew from some areas to avoid harming the civil population. Saturday 2 May… Read more »

Women’s Empowerment in India

Posted by & filed under Gender, Peacebuilding, Uncategorized

From participation to political agency

Women’s empowerment and equal participation in political life is important at all levels of Indian society.

A school outing in Taj Mahal. Photo: Jason Miklian, PRIO

Despite benefitting from reservations, women frequently experience obstacles when they participate in politics. However, to address women’s aspirations for political agency we should explore the emerging opportunities, and not only the challenges. We should also keep in mind that there are multiple aspects of identity, and huge differences in the economic and political status of women, within India as in the rest of the world. ‘Women’ is not a homogenous category that can be defined merely by the need for aid or support.Read More

Dead economy walking in South Sudan

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Ever since early 2012, South Sudan’s imminent economic collapse has been routinely predicted. Impressions from a recent visit to Juba indicate that this time around it might be more to these divinations than before.  The economic crisis is compounded by a de facto break-down in peace negotiations and South Sudan faces a formidable threat to… Read more »

A Climate of Conflicts?

Posted by and & filed under Conflict Patterns, Environment, Urbanization and Environment

Political violence correlates strongly with climate: Civil conflict risk is seven to ten times higher in dry and tropical climates than in continental climate zones. Yet, there is little evidence that climatic variability and change are important in understanding this pattern. The prospect of climate change causing forced migration and food and economic insecurity, meanwhile, raises new concerns about possible future conflict scenarios.

  • Climate change is not likely to have a common and universal effect on armed conflict risk.
  • Indirect effects of climate on conflict may work via migration, food insecurity or economic shocks.
  • Many of the factors that increase conflict risk also make societies vulnerable to climate change.
  • Investing in climate change adaptation is likely to have significant, positive security implications.

Read more in a recent Policy Brief from the Conflict Trends Project at PRIO.

Therapeutic Prosecutions?

Posted by , and & filed under Gender, Law and Ethics

Assessing the therapeutic potential of criminal prosecution of international crimes at the International Criminal Court (ICC).

In 2012, the International Criminal Court (ICC) handed out its first-ever prison sentence, giving a 14-year jail term to former Congolese warlord Thomas Lubanga.

Over the past twenty years, the global community has shown a renewed commitment to the pursuit of international criminal justice. A hallmark development in this regard is the establishment of the permanent International Criminal Court (ICC). A central asset of the court is victim and witness participation, based on an assumption that this approach will benefit those who have been affected by the crimes and their communities. In a recent policy brief we explore the therapeutic potential and pitfalls of this approach based on a literature review, relevant studies in the field and initial interviews at the ICC.

  • A sense of confidence in the system and a feeling of security are vital in order for the ICC to have a positive impact on victims and their communities.
  • The possibility of reparation is important, but can also have adverse effects if perceived as a way of silencing victim’s accounts.
  • The court process may represent a form of social recognition and acknowledgement of what happened which has an important healing potential.

Read more in a recent Policy Brief from PRIO.

Putin’s Political Pause Amid National Mobilization

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

XXL-missiles are again rolling on Moscow streets. Photo Novaya gazeta.

The focal point for the “patriotic” propaganda for the last several months has been the celebration of the 70th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory in the Great Patriotic War (as World War II is known in Russia), which is now just a few days away. Reflections on the horrible costs of that bitter victory or on coalition efforts with the Allies have been nearly nonexistent; instead, jingoistic triumphalism, combined with the traditional display of military might, translates into an eager anticipation of yet another victorious campaign. Putin has invested a lot of personal effort in turning this celebration into a demonstration of Russia’s prominent position in the international arena, and now has to swallow not only the fruits of isolation but also the consequences of progressing economic feebleness. The artificially induced moment of national unity will likely dissipate with unpredictable speed in the weeks to come, so his window for a new morale-boosting aggressive action may turn out to be quite narrow.

This is the final point from the article in Eurasia Daily Monitor, May 4.

Humanitarianism and Return

Posted by and & filed under Humanitarianism, Migration

Humanitarianism and Return: Compromising Protection

In many contexts around the world, states use funding for humanitarian programming as an active part of their attempts to manage populations displaced by conflict. Humanitarian aid to refugees and internally displaced is commonly understood as a temporary activity that ends when people will return home. Yet returnees can often not be provided with protection and ‘return’ for many entails a first encounter with a new place. In a recent policy brief we argue that humanitarian organizations have the responsibility to analyze the long-term security implications of their decisions on where to provide aid.

  • Somali refugees returning. Photo: The Africa Migration Insider

    Return of refugees is a common aim of humanitarian policies in (post-) conflict contexts.

  • For a portion of refugees, ‘return’ entails a first encounter with a new place, while many others have lost social networks in places of origin.
  • To guarantee protection, programming for returnees requires mobile forms of assistance that build on social networks.
  • If return programming is considered, humanitarian actors should include a systematic analysis of its long-term security impact.

Read more in a recent Policy Brief from PRIO