The Reality of Firearms Trafficking

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The film The Lord of War and high profile trial of Victor Bout helped to seal in the public imagination the image of an illicit arms trafficker as being someone who smuggled planeloads of Kalashnikovs around the world and into war zones.

Example of the firearms seized by the Attorney General of California in a sweep for illegal weapons. Photo: Seth Taylor

Such characters do exist, but the reality of firearms trafficking (especially outside war zones) is very different. With two exceptions, the 48 participating countries did not have wars on their territories, so the study provides a picture of trafficking associated with criminality (and crime accounts for far more deaths than armed conflict).  Some of the findings from the study show that firearms trafficking is much more prosaic than often imagined.Read More

ASEAN’s Rohingya Challenge: Can ASEAN fail to act and yet be a Community?

Posted by & filed under Migration, Regions and Powers, Religion

A human tragedy has been unfolding in the Bay of Bengal. Thousands of poor Rohingya and Bangladeshi refugees and job seekers have been the victims of xenophobia, cynical smugglers and incapable governance.

Many of the perhaps 1.3 million Rohingya… have so poor living conditions, or are so badly treated, that tens of thousands place their fate in the hands of smugglers. As long as this tragedy is allowed to persist, it will lead to new acute crises. Photo: Joseph Allchin

What has ASEAN done? So far very little. Yet this crisis is exactly the kind of non-traditional trans-national security challenge that ASEAN must cope with if it means seriously its ambition to form a peaceful “ASEAN Community” by December 2015.

  • The exodus of refugees and job seekers from Myanmar and Bangladesh presents an acute challenge for ASEAN
  • Four member countries are directly involved: Myanmar, Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia
  • ASEAN lacks a capacity for handling trans-national security challenges
  • A minister-level working group should be established

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The Child Welfare Services in Norway and Migration

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The recent demonstrations against Norway’s Child Welfare Service (Barnevernet), in Oslo and outside Norwegian embassies abroad, express the deep frustration and fear felt by some parents with immigrant background. In recent years this frustration has received increased attention both in Norway and internationally. The international diplomatic repercussions of this crisis of confidence between the Child Welfare Service and families with immigrant background reveal how this is not purely a domestic matter, although it concerns children in Norway.

 

Lithuanians demonstrating outside the Norwegian Embassy in London 30 May, protesting against the Norwegian Child Welfare Service (Barnevernet). Foto: Espen Aas/NRK

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Celebrating Russia Day, the country finds itself with no future

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

The bottom line: By the grace of God, I have nothing to regret in my life.

The pattern of brinksmanship, in which air incidents in the Baltic theater interplay with tank and artillery engagements in the Donbas war zone, is so obviously detrimental to Russia’s interests that a determined effort at breaking it appears inevitable. Western leaders focus on measures for containing Russia, expecting that the break may come in the form of discharging tensions and managing the hostilities. For the Kremlin, however, the incentives to go in this direction are weakened by the need to justify the consequences of the maturing economic crisis to the demobilized populace and disgruntled elites. The more emphasis is placed on the “majestic” and “heroic” past, the less space there is for compromises and retreats for the policymakers entrapped in their own propaganda. Russia’s history is rich and tragic indeed, but turning the country toward a glorified and deeply false version of the past is not just a convenient means to politically prop up the regime. It promises to deny Russia a peaceful future, or maybe any future at all.

The full article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, June 15.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 24

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Saturday 6 June The SPLA launched an operation in Western Bahr el Ghazal to find the suspected rebels who killed at least 10 soldiers two weeks ago. Sunday 7 June South Sudanese presidency dismissed media reports over President Salva Kiir bad health and alleged speculations that Minister of Defence, Kuol Manyang Juuk would replace him…. Read more »

A cause of war or an impetus for peace? Uganda’s economic interests in South Sudan

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  UPDF’s intervention in South Sudan indicates Uganda’s strong interest in the new country. Security and regional stability seems to be the chief motives, but various economic interests also crops up in discussions about Uganda’s involvement. It is, however, difficult to assess the importance of this dimension since the extent and nature of Ugandan economic activities… Read more »

Finding Connections: The Nexus between Migration and Corruption

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International migration and corruption have several things in common: they play key roles in development processes, feature prominently on policy agendas, and are the subject of large research literatures. However, the connections between migration and corruption, whether in the country of origin or along migration trajectories, remain relatively unexplored.

An anti-corruption billboard near the Rwanda-Uganda border crossing (Photo: Fred Inklaar via Flickr)

The migration-corruption nexus has important implications for migrants, policymakers, practitioners, and local communities affected by emigration and immigration. Although focused attention to corruption remains rare in migration research, corruption frequently comes up as a topic because it affects people’s lives. For instance, one of the studies that inspired this article set out to examine the reintegration of return migrants and discovered that corruption was an overwhelmingly important issue, not foreseen at the outset.

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Russia’s accident-prone air might

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I made an argument about Russia’s weakening and vulnerability in Brookings’ blog Order from Chaos, suggesting, in particular, that What is less obvious for many Russia-watchers is that the military strength demonstrated so pompously on the Red Square during the May 9 Victory Day parade is also in decline. In Ukraine, the lack of any… Read more »

Aborted Offensive in Donbass on the Eve of the G7 Summit

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

A subtle Russian message to the G7 summit.

The swiftly terminated rebel attack on Maryinka was probably meant to be Putin’s “warning shot” to the Western leaders. But he only succeeded in reminding them about the near certainty (rather than risk) of a summer spasm in the “hybrid war.” While the Russian battalions concentrated in the war zone appear far from eager to go into battle, the assorted war-bands of local thugs and Russian “volunteers” of invariably aggressive persuasions have nothing else to do but to resume fighting. It seems Putin’s support base is eager to cheer for new victories but absolutely not ready to keep waiting for them while experiencing Russian-style austerity, even if it is explained away as caused by the economic “aggression” of the hostile West. Every picture from the top-level schmoozing in the Bavarian Alps presumably reminds Putin that there is no way back for him, and every opinion poll tells him that the time for the next strike is now, before his loyal subjects tire of the chronic deadlock. There is really no point in waiting for the European Council meeting in late June, where the sanctions are certain to be prolonged; but it is quite tempting for Moscow to try to reshape its agenda.

The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, June 8.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 23

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Monday 1 June The Government of South Sudan expelled the United Nations’ resident relief coordinator and deputy envoy to the country, Toby Lanzer. The SPLM later explained the expulsion, describing Lanzer as an ‘’enemy’’ of South Sudan. A delegation of 5 SPLM-G10, accompanied by South African Deputy President Cyril Ramaphosa, returned to South Sudan to… Read more »