Partnership of Contrarians

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Russia connects with Turkey seeking opportunities in the Middle East.

Putin heeded to Erdoğan on 3 December 2012. Photo: The Presidential Press and Information Office

Violent conflicts in the Middle East gained new momentum in 2014, and the forceful multilateral efforts to contain them yielded far from satisfactory results. Both Russia and Turkey have remained aloof from these efforts, and often oppose US-led endeavors but they have major stakes in the overlapping regional conflicts and so are exploring opportunities to claim a key role in pro-active conflict management.

  • Russia’s best opportunity to boost its role in the Middle East is by launching joint initiatives with Turkey.
  • Energy ties are a less solid foundation for this partnership because of the drop in oil prices.
  • Personal chemistry between Putin and Erdoğan is a major asset for the joint initiatives.
  • Positions on the Syrian war remain far apart, but both states aim to undermine US leadership.

Read more in the new PRIO Policy Brief: Partnerhip of Contrarians

Who’s Afraid of “Waging Nonviolence”?

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Since at least 2011, the Chinese government has censored numerous websites on the topic of nonviolent resistance, including websites for the Albert Einstein Institution, the International Center on Nonviolent Conflict, an online bibliography of scholarship of nonviolent action, and the website for the NAVCO data project, among others.

Hong Kong’s Umbrella Revolution. Photo: Pasu Au Yeung, via Flickr

A month ago, the Chinese government allegedly blocked Google, along with a variety of search terms such as the phrase “waging nonviolence.” It’s revealing that content related to nonviolent struggle would be so concerning to the Chinese government.

Read more at Political Violence @ a Glance, where the full text was posted 16 January 2015.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 7

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Tuesday 10 February New clashes between government forces and the SPLM/A (IO) in Obudo County, Upper Nile state, and north of Bentiu in Unity state.   The Nuer Council of Elders (NCE) issued a statement criticizing the IGAD for suffering from conflict of interest and called for greater impartiality. Juba and Kampala denied claims by… Read more »

The Window of Opportunity Closes in Nigeria

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On 14 February, the population of Nigeria, Africa’s largest democracy, were supposed to go to the polls to elect a new president. This election might have proven a watershed in Nigerian history. For the first time, the opposition had a realistic opportunity to take over from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), which has held power ever since free elections were re-introduced in 1999. The security problems in the north-east of the country have made the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) postpone the election until 28 March. This may prove an effective barrier for the opposition, and increase the risk of an explosion of violence both before and during the election.

Student elections in Calabar, Nigeria.

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Rogozin for the Arctic viceroy?

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It has become clear that the plan for establishing a super-ministry for the Arctic has been reduced to setting a government commission, which according to some lobbyists in the Duma, would put security first (Arctic-Info, February 11). Kommersant (February 6) reported that Dmitry Rogozin is approved as the head of this commission, and RIA-Novosti (6… Read more »

Ukraine takes Painful Hits – but Must Stay in the Fight

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A pause is a feature of the “Hybrid war”. Photo from RBC.ru

President Vladimir Putin loves to play the “divide-and-deceive” game, imagining that every split between the United States and Europe or inside the European Union is an opportunity to corrupt Western policies, opinions, and values. It was high time to turn this game against him, and last week he indeed found himself on the receiving end of an elegant “deter-and-engage” combination. As NATO announced the decision to strengthen its Response Force and military presence in the Baltic area, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande traveled to Moscow to impress upon President Vladimir Putin the urgent need to stop the escalation of hostilities in Eastern Ukraine. Merkel’s stern reflection that the talks made sense is likely a testimony that they didn’t, but it is remarkable that the five-hours-long exchange in the Kremlin (preceded and followed by phone conversations) happened against the background of lively debate in Washington on the issue of providing military aid to Ukraine.

For the rest of the post, see the Brookings blog, February 10.

Diplomacy Delivers Another Pause for Struggling Ukraine and Sinking Russia

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In the fog of winter war in Ukraine.

The week of February 2 registered an explosion in political intrigue around the war in eastern Ukraine, and some sort of pause in hostilities is likely to ensue. Undoubtedly, this is a positive development, but it would be an overstatement to describe the late-night talks in the Kremlin between President Vladimir Putin and the two European envoys—German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande—as the “last chance” to stop the war. The five-hour talks concluded without any agreement or press conference. And during their brief photo-session, the three leaders wore their sternest facial expressions, demonstrating how hard it was to reach the compromise, which in fact had been pre-negotiated. Merkel and Hollande held several rounds of phone talks with Putin before hitting the road for their shuttle diplomacy, in which their first stop was Kyiv before proceeding to Moscow. That trip was followed up with another four-way phone conference on Sunday. The parties, indeed, need to show personal commitment to the deal, primarily to their respective domestic audiences. At the same time, they likely realize full well that this latest peace initiative has begun unraveling well before any signing ceremony could take place, if it happens at all.

The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, February 9.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 6

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Monday 2 February At least five people were killed and seven others wounded when unknown gunmen attacked a village in Jalle payam in Jonglei’s Bor county. Abdalla Kuot, spokesperson for rebel fighters under the overall command of General Dau Aturjong, said the SPLA (IO) planned to intensify its recruitment efforts in and outside South Sudan… Read more »

Data Challenges in Conflict Research

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Quality data is at the heart of quality research. The scholarly community depends on valid, reliable, and easily accessible data in order to empirically test our theories of social and political processes. Yet quantitative data is not “truth” in an absolute sense, but rather, is a numeric representation of complex phenomena. For conflict researchers, the challenge of collecting quality data is particularly acute given the nature of our enterprise.

A graph of the frequency and severity of violent incidents in Afghanistan. By Max Braun.

Given the costs and risks involved, it is practically impossible to observe every battle, civilian massacre, human rights violation, or protest event. Therefore, we often rely upon other sources — journalists, non-governmental organizations, truth commissions, and so on — to report on key features of a conflict, then turn such information into numeric values. Turning such reports into data isn’t a trivial task, but requires digesting large amounts of text, sorting through often-conflicting information, making judgments about coding rules, and dealing with ambiguous cases.

Recently, there have been a number of conversations in the conflict studies community about the challenge of collecting data that is accurate, replicable, and inter-operable with existing data. One such discussion occurred during a workshop held at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, where several key figures from leading data collection projects were gathered. Some of the key concepts and ideas from that workshop were recently turned into a series of short articles, just published as a special feature of the Journal of Peace Research. In that special feature, scholars discuss their own experiences (good and bad) with collecting data, updates on current data projects, and practical tools for future data collection, all with an eye on common standards and best practices (for an exemplary discussion of best practices, see this paper by Christian Davenport and Will Moore).

Read more in the post at Political Violence @ A Glance.

Peacekeeping Works

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An assessment of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations

The increase in the deployment of UN ‘blue helmets’ is a key driver of the gradual decline in the number and severity of armed conflicts worldwide since the mid-1990s. This brief summarizes a study that assesses the complete, long-term effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations. It shows a remarkably strong combined effect of UN operations’ ability to contain the lethality of wars as well as preventing them from reerupting or spreading.

UN Peacekeepers in East Timor. Photo: Geoffrey C. Gunn. Licensed under CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons

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