A Young and Fragile Time in Afghanistan

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Afghanistan’s “youth boom” means that the country has a large generation of young people with high expectations for a better future – and high levels of frustration. Such a situation provides fertile ground for radicalization.

Boys in Badakhshan: do they have a brighter future? Photo: Norwegian Afghanistan Committee, 2013

Afghanistan’s population is estimated to have grown by as much as 2.4 per cent in 2014, and around 68 per cent of the total population is under 25 years of age. The absence of a strong and responsive state means that young Afghans’ prospects and quality of life are blighted by lack of security, poverty, drug dependency, lack of educational opportunities, and unemployment.

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Two Summits and a Military Exercise

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

People are still coming to the Nemtsov bridge. Photo from Novaya gazeta.

While Putin may believe in his own infallibility, his courtiers have to persist in reassuring him about the fragility of Western unity. Just another push and a couple more bribes, they argue, will convince some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members that Narva or Spitsbergen are not worth fighting for, or to persuade some EU members that the sanctions regime is counter-productive. This split needs to be achieved in the coming weeks, in time for a summer offensive in eastern Ukraine toward Mariupol and Melitopol (opening the land corridor to Crimea) to be condoned at new (Minsk Three) summit—where France and Germany would be tasked with convincing Ukraine that peace has to be paid for with more concessions. This wishful strategizing is not without reason, and it is up to the EU to prove its capacity to stand together—and up to the United States to lead a successful Western rejection of Russia’s tactics of bullying and bluff. Deterring Putin’s Russia is a different and trickier task than containing the Soviet Union, but statesmanship will always prevail over scoundreldom.

This is the ending of the article published in Eurasia Daily Monitor, March 23.

How can Norway best Support Afghanistan?

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The current situation in Afghanistan is the subject of two opposing narratives: one is a success story about international support and involvement since 2001; the other is a story where much has gone wrong and everything can only get worse. Agreeing on a narrative that is closer to the truth is crucial when deciding what form Norwegian support and involvement should take in the future.

International forces have changed their focus from attacking Al-Qaeda and the Taliban to also rebuilding an Afghan army and police force: Afghan National Civil Order Police officers train for operations in Afghanistan. Photo: NATO, via Flickr

The lion’s share of international funding has so far been earmarked for security measures. Over time, the international forces have changed their focus from attacking Al-Qaeda and the Taliban to also rebuilding an Afghan army and police force. During 2014, responsibility for the military operations was gradually transferred to Afghan forces. Since the start of this transfer, there has been an increase in the number of Afghans killed, both among civilians and soldiers, and the number of desertions. The cost of running this army exceeds Afghanistan’s entire public revenues, making Afghanistan entirely dependent on international funding to maintain its army at current levels. Corruption is a huge problem, both in the army and the police, and numbers of soldiers and police officers are inflated, as are their food rations, in order to attract higher levels of funding. In addition, if actual soldiers and policemen become unemployed, they may represent a major security problem. Thus a limited international military presence, primarily in a mentoring role, may be important for national stability in Afghanistan – along with support for soldiers’ salaries.

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Basta! Brazilians Move from Apathy to Action

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

In Rio de Janeiro, when the going gets tough, the tough… often go to the beach. The expanse of blue shoreline lined with small botecos (bars) is a sanctuary from the troubles of everyday life and according to some Cariocas – natives of Rio – the explanation for their relaxed attitude. On 15 March, they turned up – in droves – at Copacabana beach. Cariocas came dressed in the national colors green and yellow with some sporting the slogan “Basta” (Enough). The same scene was repeated in 160 towns across Brazil with numbers said to be as high as 1.5 million. Only this time, it was to protest against the state of the country and the corruption that has become synonymous with Brazilian political life. Most particularly, their anger turned against President Dilma Rousseff whose Partida Popular (Worker’s Party – PT) is seen to embody a culture of impunity.

Fora Dilma! (Out Dilma). Photo: Jørgen Skjelsbæk

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The Fire in the House of Islam

Posted by & filed under Conflict Patterns, Religion

Generally speaking, the global map of conflict is increasingly shaped by armed conflicts involving Muslims on one side or the other, or on both. Are Muslim countries particularly belligerent? Is the religion to blame?

Despite the numerous items of bad news delivered by the mass media on a daily basis, a global overview of armed conflict shows several positive trends. Read More

Evaluating Ebola: the Politics of the Military Response Narrative

Posted by & filed under Humanitarianism

While the humanitarian community is still struggling to help end the Ebola epidemic, talk about lessons learned and the need for critical evaluations have been on the way for some time already. Here, I suggest that humanitarians must pay keen attention to the post-Ebola narrative of military victory that is currently emerging. To see the deployment of military personnel, strategies and tactics as the game changer is unfair, because it invisibilises the resilience of the nationals of Ebola affected countries, as well as the efforts of local health workers and (some) humanitarians to address and control the outbreak. However, this narrative also has important strategic consequences for patterns of funding and intervention in future health emergencies.

U.S. Army Africa Clearing the way for Ebola treatment unit sites near Barclayville, Liberia. Photo: U.S. Army Africa. Photo by Pfc. Craig Philbrick/via Flickr

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Putin’s Disappearing Act is a Sign of Leadership Crisis

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Upon reappearing, Putin ordered to stage snap exercises of the Northern Fleet.

Since the Ukraine crisis exploded a year ago, Putin’s system of power has rigidified into a uni-centric combination of a police state, kleptocracy and “propagandocracy” (if such a word could be invented), in which no transition of authority can be planned or envisaged. His recent poorly camouflaged and worse explained “disappearance” has not re-confirmed his indispensability, but signaled that the courtier-siloviki will not be able to manage the appointment of a new boss without unleashing a multi-clan feud—in which Kadyrov with his battalions and billions could be a major force. Putin is leading Russia toward state failure; and the incapacitation of this disastrous leadership by some sort of “Ides of March” scenario would likely trigger a big leap forward in this degradation.

This is the final para from the article in Eurasia Daily Monitor, March 16.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 11

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Monday 9 March A high ranking SPLA officer said they launched a military offensive to retake Wadakona from the SPLM/A (IO) last week. Tuesday 10 March Clashes between SPLM/A (IO) and government forces continued in Manyo County in Upper Nile State. According to Vice-president, James Wani Igga the IGAD peace talks hit a deadlock after… Read more »

Buddhist Nationalism Threatens Myanmar’s Democratic Transition

Posted by & filed under Religion

It’s election year in Myanmar, the big test for the country’s aspiring democratic transition. Among the spirited national debates there are four controversial pieces of legislation currently under consideration in Myanmar’s Assembly of the Union parliament (the Pyidaungsu hluttaw). These reportedly aim to protect race and religion. But in truth, the bills represent a setback for religious freedom and women’s rights and — if adopted — are likely to deepen existing religious divides, threaten the reform agenda and stir violence prior to the elections.

The controversial Buddhist nationalist monk Wirathu attends a conference about religious violence in Yangon in 2013.

A rising Buddhist nationalist movement has lobbied for the bills, in particular the ‘Organisation for the Protection of Race and Religion’ (known in Myanmar under the Burmese acronym ‘Ma Ba Tha’), a group related but not identical to the infamous 969 movement. The organisation has collected more than a million signatures in support of the laws meant to protect Buddhism against a perceived threat from Islam.

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How Migration Spurs Battles over Women

Posted by & filed under Gender, Migration

Andrada Radu / Flickr

(This post was originally published on Jørgen Carling’s personal web site.)

Migration affects the lives of women in many ways. One subtle but critical mechanism lies in disputes over ‘who’ migrant women are. Migration researchers can play a role in making the battles apparent and showing how they matter.

I have collected fifteen articles that have inspired me to write this post. I’ll mention them as I write, highlighting what I think they bring to our understanding of battles over women in the context of migration. You’ll find the abstract and full reference for each article at the end of the post (or this PDF).

The battles I refer to can, for the most part be related to a simple question: Who are ‘migrant women’? Let’s leave aside the demographics and socio-economic profiles of women who migrate and focus on the idea of ‘migrant women’. A good place to start is the message that the Director General of the International Organization for Migration (IOM) published on the occasion of International Women’s Day 2015. The Director General’s carefully worded message paints a picture that I think is typical in the field of policy and practice: migrant women are strong, yet in need of protection; they are pillars, yet vulnerable; they are leaders, yet need to be empowered.

It’s easy to point out that the IOM’s description is riddled with tensions. This is not a problem—life is full of tensions and contradictions. But it’s worth pausing to think about the attempt to fill the notion of ‘migrant women’ with meaning. Even if the description is a multi-faceted one, we are still left with a fixed category: migrant women.

‘We can learn a lot from them’ writes the IOM Director General about migrant women. I agree. In my own research, I have relied heavily upon ethnographic methods, which are essentially about learning from people who talk about their experiences. But I’ve grown increasingly sceptical of learning from people as ‘representatives’ of a particular category.Read More