This Week in South Sudan – Week 3

Tuesday 13 January  Al Jazeera: Inside Story ‘China’s motive in South Sudan’ (video). President Salva Kiir reshuffled the Finance Ministry, replacing Finance Minister Aggrey Tisa Sabuni with David Deng Athorbei. 8 killed, 2 injured in Lakes state revenge attack in Cueibet county. President Salva Kiir warned against attempts to delay the elections and democratic process… Read more »

Are Norwegian Oil Companies making Civil Wars More Likely?

East Africa has become the latest hotspot for oil-and-gas discoveries, but the reserves are located in countries characterized by weak state institutions and social unrest.

The Algerian military increased security at the In Aménas plant following the terror attack.
Photo: Uncredited/AP via NRK.no

A number of African countries – several of them with significant Norwegian assistance – are on the threshold of becoming major producers of oil and gas. Does this mean that Norwegian companies are contributing to increase the risk of civil war in these countries?Read More

Discussing Arctic issues in Brussels

Last Thursday (as it happens, right before the terror alert), a brainstorming session on Arctic matters was organized by the EU Institute for Security Studies, and I am glad to be a part of this undertaking. Juha Jokela from the Finnish Institute of International Affairs is in charge of this project, and the output is… Read more »

A Third Palestinian Intifada?

The level of conflict in Jerusalem is now so high that more and more people are talking of a “Third Intifada” – a new popular uprising by Palestinians against the Israeli occupation – that would be centred in Jerusalem. In fact, there is little to suggest that a Third Intifada is imminent, but it does seem likely that there will be an increase in violence and unrest in Jerusalem in the future. In this article I will attempt to explain why.

Right-wing Israelis have been making renewed demands for Jews to be allowed to pray on the Temple Mount, which is also the site of the al-Aqsa Mosque, the third holiest site in Islam. Photo from Wikimedia Commons.

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After Charlie Hebdo: We Must Never Cease to Protect the Rights of People who Provoke and Challenge

Why do satirists and critics of religion have to be so provocative? Why must they publish images that they know to be offensive to some people’s beliefs and traditions – and that brutal extremists may use as a pretext for terrorist acts?

Illustrator Lucille Clerc, via Twitter (@LucilleClerc)

That such questions are asked is understandable. But for many reasons they must be answered with a solid defence of the freedom of expression.

In the wake of the terrorist acts in Paris, let us take a moment to remind ourselves of some of the most important reasons why this is so:Read More

How did the Paris Killers Acquire their Guns?

At present we have very little information on the guns used last week by Saïd and Chérif Kouachi to commit a massacre at the offices of the publication Charlie Hebdo; and by Amedy Coulibaly in several shootings in Paris. They were armed with Kalashnikov pattern guns, however as nearly 200 different versions of the Kalashnikov have been produced around the world since the introduction of the AK-47, at the time of writing there isn’t enough information to start working out how they obtained the guns used in the attacks. 

One of the killers, Amedy Coulibaly, posed next to a firearm in a video; and it has been identified as a Czech made VZ-58 Compact. Screenshot from video.

This blog post is intended to clarify one misconception that has been present in the media and present some information on arms trafficking in Western Europe in order to show the most likely means by which they acquired their arms.

I’ve been asked a few times about a news report entitled Paris Hebdo attack: France awash with black-market weaponry which mentions unnamed ‘expert s‘ who state that despite strong gun regulations in France “While the exact number is not known, estimates run to 10 to 20 million illegal weapons in circulation in France’s population of 65 million.” This estimate makes France seem like a war zone such as Libya and is highly misleading. Read More

The Road to Hell is Paved With Rapid Reactions

In the wake of a vicious crime, caution and restraint are a virtue.

We don’t really have to use a terror act as an excuse to throw up all our discomforts about coexistence, tolerance, and difference. Mural of Guernica by Pablo Picasso, from Wikimedia.

Once upon a time, in the realm of Xanadu, two and a half dim-witted but well-armed, well-funded and well-trained professional criminals committed cold-blooded murder, commando-style. While committing their crime, they uttered two sentences vocally and publically, following their script to a T.

First they cried/lied: “Allah o Akbar.” Obviously, anyone who takes the sacred life of another human being either does not believe in God, or tries to be God himself, in which case he is a lunatic. But the citizens of Xanadu took their words literally and engaged in virulent debates with each other on religion: whether Islam was inherently violent, Muslims innately intolerant, whether they should live their religion or be amalgamated in western societies. Freedom of religion and belief took a first hit when the criminal terrorists rhymed their lie to the sound of automatic rifle.

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Who is Charlie? And What Now?

On Sunday 11 January France witnessed the largest rally on records of people taking to the streets with close to 4 million people all over the country, of which almost 1,5 million in Paris. The world saw one of the largest gatherings of state leaders in one place outside of those we witness during the annual UN General Assemblies, in what was reportedly a nightmare for the security services. Prior to this, the social media sphere saw one of the largest spreads of a hashtag, with more than 3,4 million #jesuischarlie in less than 24 hours.

Plantu, Le Monde

 

So who is this Charlie able to trigger such massive mobilization?

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Futile Hopes for the Dubious Summit in Astana

Moscow Echo shows solidarity with Charlie Hebdo.

Despite the apparent deadlock in armed clashes in eastern Ukraine, an idea to bringing together the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, together with their peers from Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as the leaders of France and Germany, gained momentum at the end of last week. Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev made an unscheduled visit to Berlin on Friday (January 9), seeking to persuade German Chancellor Angela Merkel that a summit in Astana on January 15 could make sense to break the Russian deadlock in the talks, and he then had a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin (Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Kremlin.ru, January 9, 2015). A day before that, Merkel held talks with Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and made a firm statement that the third package of sanctions on Russia could be lifted only after Moscow ensures the full implementation of all ceasefire provisions as agreed in Minsk in September 2014 (Newsru.com, January 8, 2015). The same position was taken by Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who also mentioned some “positive signals” on changes in Russia’s position; but neither Merkel nor Mogherini expressed any interest in a summit (RIA Novosti, January 8, 2015).

The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, January 12.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 2

Tuesday 6 January    South Sudan’s minority leader in parliament, Onyoti Adigo Nyikwak spoke out against the planned elections in June, saying it would enflame tensions and further divide the country. China pledged $33 million to improve South Sudan health care, the majority of the funds will be used to modernize the Juba Teaching Hospital…. Read more »