Thai Elections Mark Declining Public Interest in Nationalism, Patronage Politics

Posted by & filed under Governance, Regions and Powers

This week’s election results handed a surprising victory to the opposition Move Forward Party. While it remains to be seen if the conservative establishment will allow them to actually take power, the vote signals a turning point in the mindset of the Thai public.

The Thai political map is now painted with orange, the colour representing the opposition Move Forward Party (MFP) which swept away the competition in an unprecedented victory in last Sunday’s general election.

Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of the Move Forward Party. Photo: Sirakorn Lamyai / Wikimedia Commons

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What’s Next in Climate Security Studies? Exploiting Synergies between Practice and Research

Posted by & filed under Environment

The increase in global temperatures by over 1 degree Celsius since pre-industrial times is already having broad and significant impacts. An ongoing multi-year drought in Eastern Africa, for instance, has been attributed to global warming. Hunger crises, displacement, and exacerbated conflict between pastoralist groups are some of the reported dire consequences. This blog post reports on a recent study of the consequences of environmental hazards for attitudes toward violence in Uganda. The story was originally published by New Security Beat.

Piloting UN FAO-led survey data collection near Moroto in Karamoja, Uganda. Photo: Nina von Uexkull.s

The past several years have led to greater recognition of climate-related threats. Most recently, Malta, Mozambique, Switzerland and the UAE made a public pledge to championing climate change within the United Nations Security Council. While a comprehensive resolution on climate change as a threat to peace and security has yet to be adopted, climate change impacts on instability have already been acknowledged in multiple UN Security Council resolutions on UN missions, including those addressing ongoing armed conflicts in DR Congo, Iraq, Somalia and South Sudan.Read More

The Other ‘Peace Process’ on Afghanistan: Geneva Talks 1982-1988

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Regions and Powers

In the past three years, the US government’s role in the Doha Talks (2010-2020) has attracted scrutiny and criticism within the United States and abroad.

Zalmay Khalilzad (USA) and Taliban representative Abdul Ghani Baradar sign the agreement in Doha, Qatar in 2020. State Department photo by Ron Przysucha/ Public Domain

Starting in November 2010, the Doha Talks was a process of intermittent negotiations between the United States and the Afghan Taliban. The culmination of this process was the Doha Agreement, signed in February 2020. The agreement facilitated the withdrawal of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan.

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Erdogan Struggles with Securing the Votes of Young People and Women in Turkey’s Fateful Election

Posted by & filed under Governance, Regions and Powers

In one of Turkey’s most popular soap operas Kizilcik Şerbeti [Cranberry Sorbet] Nursema, a young conservative woman in love with another man, is married off by her family to another against her own wishes. On her wedding night, in an argument with her new husband she is pushed off the balcony. Miraculously surviving, she confronts both families in a dramatic scene that unleashed a discussion among Turks in social media and on the street.

The question posed on Twitter was: «Who would Nursema vote for?”

The answer to this question will help determine Turkey’s future.

Protesters shout anti-government slogans during a demonstration in Ankara. NTB / AFP photo / Adem Altan

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Muted V-Day Celebrations in Russia Amid Disastrous War

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

Victory Day in Russia continues to resonate throughout Russia society, and official propaganda in the past decade has strived to change the meaning of this emotionally charged and solemn day of remembrance into a feast of militarism and jingoism.

Vladimir Putin carrying the photo of his father during Victory Day 2015 and the (now canceled) Immortal Regiment rally (Bessmertny Polk). Photo: kremlin.ru/Wikimedia Commons

The slogan “we can do it again” (mozhem povtorit) pervaded loud festivities even during the pandemic-caused lockdown (Sibreal.org, May 6). Not so this year.

Military parades were canceled in many cities, and the public rally “Immortal Regiment” (Bessmertny Polk), which gathered large crowds carrying portraits of relatives who perished in past wars, was canceled even in Moscow. Officially, these changes were announced as reactions to security concerns; however, in reality, they are perhaps more about the inadvertent exposure of tens of thousands of casualties in the ongoing war against Ukraine (The Moscow Times, April 24).Read More

The Demand For US Leadership Outpaces Resentment Against It

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

President Joe Biden’s long-awaited announcement of decision to run for the second presidential term has brought into a sharper focus the new quality of US leadership in global affairs, which he has delivered, perhaps without any grand strategic design.

President Joe Biden. Photo: Michael Stokes / Wikimedia Commons

The 2024 US elections will be run and determined primarily by competing domestic agendas, as is usually the case, but the coincidence of Biden’s announcement with the state visit to USA of South Korea’s President Yoon Suk Yeol points to a greater prominence of foreign policy matters than was the case in his previous contestation with President Donald Trump in 2020.Read More

Without Clear Goals in Ukraine, All Nations Are “Fighting with the Last War” and That’s a Big Problem.

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

Initial Western support for Ukraine in the face of murderous Russian aggression was strong and unified. With Putin’s ambitions to capture Kyiv in shambles, Ukraine’s survival has been assured, but the war drags on.

Picture created with Dall-E version 2, using the prompt “White crosses on a military cemetery stretching all the way to the horizon on a gray, misty day, oil painting”.

The Ukrainian government has set its sights on absolute victory, including retaking the territories Russia occupies since 2014, reparation payments, extradition of war criminals, NATO and EU membership, and lasting societal change within Russia to tame its expansionist ambitions.

How these goals will be reached without invading Russia for fears of nuclear escalation is not clear, and several well-informed voices stress that absolute victory in Ukraine is very unlikely.Read More

Moscow Engulfed by Anxiety About Impending Ukrainian Offensive

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

Combat operations in the Donbas trenches remain deadlocked, but their diminishing intensity does not signify an impasse in the course of the Russo-Ukrainian war, which continues to evolve on the ground.

Trenchline in Bakhmut, Eastern Ukraine. Photo: Viktor Borinets / Wikimedia Commons

One notable change has been the cessation of Russian long-distance missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and other civilian targets since the attack by 17 Iranian-made drones (of which 14 were intercepted) on Odesa on April 3 (EurAsia Daily, April 4).Read More

Putin’s Political Bubble Tightens Up

Posted by & filed under Governance, Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

Decision-making in the Kremlin had been so erratic — even before the re-invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022 — that the proposition of President Vladimir Putin inhabiting a bubble of servile courtiers and carefully doctored information appeared perfectly plausible.

Putin in his office in the Kremlin in 2020. Photo: kremlin.ru via Wikimedia Commons

Early April 2023 has brought even more evidence supporting this assumption of detachment from reality typical for mature autocratic regimes but aggravated by an unhealthy ambition for determining the course of global affairs.

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It’s Time To Rethink Myanmar’s Ethnic Armed Organizations

Posted by & filed under Non-state Conflict Actors, Regions and Powers

As Myanmar’s armed resistance against the February 2021 coup enters its second year, calls for ethnic armed organizations (EAOs), sometimes known as ethnic revolutionary organizations, to unite and bolster ties with the resistance movement grow louder.

Photo: PublicDomainPictures.net / CC0 Public Domain

This sentiment resonates not only among international observers but has also been expressed by the opposition National Unity Government (NUG), which is coordinating the resistance to the military junta that seized power in 2021. EAO alliances, such as the K3C coalition, which includes key players like the Kachin Independent Organization, Karenni National Progressive Party, and Chin National Front, are already forming.

Meanwhile, the military regime is working to maintain the status quo by upholding ceasefires and engaging with some EAOs, while continuing to fight others.Read More