Renewable Energy, Renewable Conflicts? How a Lithium Rush in Zimbabwe Is Raising Tensions

Posted by and & filed under Energy Transitions and Conflict, Environment, Security

In October 2022, lithium prices reached an all-time high.

Lithium is an essential component for electric vehicle batteries, and with the current high ambitions in electrification of transport, demand for the mineral has been rapidly increasing, hitting a record price of $74,475 per tonne in October 2022.

Artisanal chrome mining in Lalapanzi, Midlands Province. Photo: Ernest Muvunzi, Fotokulture Films

In Zimbabwe, where some of the world’s largest deposits of lithium are found, the surging prices have led small-scale and artisanal miners to turn to mine lithium ores.Read More

Putin’s War-Mongering Spectacle Reveals War Fatigue

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

As the one-year mark of President Vladimir Putin’s disastrous war against Ukraine neared, the Russian army failed to score anything resembling even a minor victory to provide the Russian leader with a talking point for his public performances.

Putin’s address to the Federal Assembly. Photo: kremlin.ru

In his address to the Federal Assembly on February 21, Putin said nothing about the prospects of bringing the “special military operation” to a successful end, asserting instead the need to prepare for more sacrifices (The Moscow Times, February 21).

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Don’t Forget the Children Born of War in Ukraine

Posted by , , and & filed under Civilians in Conflict, Ukraine War

Over nine months have passed since Russia’s attack on Ukraine. Several of the first Ukrainian women who became pregnant as a result of wartime sexual violence have now given birth to children who were conceived as a result of this violence. More will be born in the coming months.

And if the conflict and the current pattern of violence continues, even more children will come into the world as a result – not only in Ukraine, but also in Poland, Germany and other countries Ukrainian women have fled to.

Photo: Kelly Sikkema / Unsplash

How can we ensure that these children do not suffer as a consequence of the actions of their biological fathers?Read More

Before Decisive Battles, Russia’s War Against Ukraine Reaches a Political Culmination

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

As the one-year mark approaches, the Russo-Ukrainian war shows little movement along the battle lines but plenty of action along the political dimension, which may be approaching a culmination point.

First came the meeting of Ukraine’s key supporters in the Ramstein format; then the meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) defense ministers, to which Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov was invited; and, over the long weekend, the 2023 Munich Security Conference, which started with a virtual presentation by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy (Kommersant, February 17).

Putin about to address the Federal Assembly 21 February 2023. Photo: Ramil Sitdikov, RIA Novosti / kremlin.ru

Countering this political offensive, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered his postponed address to the Federal Assembly on February 21 and asserted, among other things, that “Western elites have become a symbol of total, unprincipled lies” (Kremlin.ru, February 21).Read More

NATO Should Pursue Peace over Victory in Ukraine. Here Is Why and How.

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

In his foundational book on the causes of war, Kenneth Waltz observed that “[a]sking who won a given war […] is like asking who won the San Francisco earthquake. That in war there is no victory but only varying degrees of defeat is a proposition that has gained increasing acceptance in the twentieth century.”

Generated with OpenAI’s Dall-E system, using the prompt ‘a peace dove over a map of Ukraine, stylized’

These lines ring more true today than they have in decades. Russia and Ukraine kill their soldiers by the hundreds each week, as a consequence of Russian aggression. Outrage against its murderous onslaught has galvanized the West, dusted off NATO’s image, and unified public opinion.

However, at the one-year mark of a full-blown war that has seen massive destruction, murder, rape, and the horrors of trench warfare, Western opinion and policies begin to run the risk of pursing elusive total victory at the expense of working toward durable peace.Read More

Towards a Chip-Alliance?

Posted by and & filed under Security

Long-lasting trilateral negotiations between the US, the Netherlands and Japan are expected to result in joint efforts to limit China’s domestic production of chips. The decision represents a symbolic win for the Biden Administration, but further negotiations will determine the scope and significance of the emerging “Chip-Alliance”.

Photo: Fabricio Sciami / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

On January 27th, news agencies reported that the Netherlands and Japan had agreed to join the US in common efforts to restrict China’s access to key technologies in the semiconductor supply chain.Read More

Governance and Survival after the Earthquake: The Political Complexities of Humanitarian Assistance

Posted by and & filed under Governance, Humanitarianism

The earthquake in Turkey and Syria on 6 February is tragic beyond what we are able to fathom.

Photo: EU Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid / Flickr / CC BY-SA 2.0

The World Health Organization’s Europe branch has labelled the 7.8 magnitude earthquake and a secondary 7.6 magnitude aftershock as the region’s “worst natural disaster” in 100 years. By 17 February, there have been near 44 000 registered deaths.

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Bias in Economic Models Ignores the Impact of War in Poor Nations

Posted by , , and & filed under Conflict Patterns

New research shows that existing economic forecasting models vastly underestimate the impact of conflict on marginalized countries.

National income for war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen could be up to 50 to 70 per cent lower than existing estimates by the end of the century.

Photo: EU/ECHO/Peter Biro / Flickr / CC BY-NC-ND 2.0

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Russia Seeks to Circumvent the Advancing Western Alliance in Africa

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War, Uncategorized

The broad coalition built last week for supplying main battle tanks to Ukraine signifies a new surge in strengthening the unity of the US-led Western alliance, and Russia has had no response to this upgrade.

It will take a few months to train and equip new armored battalions in the Ukrainian army for breaking through the Russian trenches in Donbas, but the political reverberations of this agreement are instantaneous, and the new level of Western unity may be discomforting for some actors in the Global South.

The South African Minister of International Relations, Naledi Pandor, and Minister of Foreign Affairs of Russia, Sergey Lavrov in January 2023. Photo: Ministry of International Relations of South Africa

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, paying a working visit to South Africa on January 23, tried to impress upon the attentive hosts that their position of neutrality could become less strict due to the hostile West’s escalating pressure on Russia (RIA Novosti, January 27). Yet, while few practical results came from Lavrov’s labors, the fake anti-colonial discourse finds more than a few receptive audiences (Izvestiya, January 27).Read More

Diplomacy Isn’t Delusional

Posted by , and & filed under Ukraine War

Why it’s wise for Ukraine to engage with an adversary like Putin.

Putin and Zelensky meet in France in 2019. Photo: Ian LANGSDON / POOL / AFP / Flickr. CC BY 2.0

Sven G. Holtsmark offers a rebuttal to our December Commonweal article in which we discussed possible negotiations over Ukraine by referencing an ancient Greek account of war on the island of Melos (also posted on the PRIO blog here and here).

We appreciate Holtsmark’s engagement with our piece and believe our divergence may not be as significant as he claims. We do, however, disagree with him that our approach is in any way detached from reality.Read More