Two events of profound, and maybe even decisive, importance for the outcome of the Ukraine war happened last week: the Davos gathering of the World Economic Forum and the meeting of top defense officials from some 50 members of the Western coalition at the Ramstein air base in Germany.
Leopard 2A5 main battle tank during a teaching and combat demonstration. Photo: Bundeswehr/Modes/Wikimedia Commons
Let’s keep Thucydides out of Russia’s war against Ukraine
Kyiv under Russian attack in March 2022. Photo: Lynsey Addario for The New York Times / Flickr / CC BY 2.0
“Ukraine is confronted with a stark choice: fight on through a bitter winter with death raining from above, or initiate negotiations with Russia under unfavourable terms. Two-and-a-half millennia ago, the leaders of the Greek island of Melos confronted a similar choice.”
The quote is from the opening paragraph of an article in Commonweal Magazine, December 22, 2022: “Right on Its Side, but Not Might? The lessons an ancient Greek war can teach Ukraine today.” The authors, Gregory M. Reichberg, Stein Tønnesson and Henrik Syse, are research professors at PRIO. Their text was republished on PRIO Blogs 3 January this year.Read More
The war in Ukraine has changed the atmosphere and the dynamics within the UN Security Council.
Security Council Meets on Maintenance of Peace and Security of Ukraine. Photo: UN Photo / Eskinder Debebe
The five permanent members and veto powers of the Council distrust each other, and diplomats fear that the war will have long-lasting negative effects on other matters.
How did Norway and the other elected members of the Security Council work under these circumstances in 2022? Is it rational for states like Norway to allocate time and resources to serving on the Council when great power politics seem to dominate its agenda?
Combat operations in Ukraine have largely contracted to a 10-mile battleground between Bakhmut and Soledar. During this fierce fighting, the command structure of Russia’s “special military operation” was suddenly upgraded on January 11.
Vladimir Putin in 2019 with Minister of defense Sergei Shoigu and the new top leader of the “special military operation” Valery Gerasimov. Photo: kremlin.ru / Wikimedia Commons
General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff, is now in charge, and the previous commander, General Sergey Surovikin, has become subordinate to Gerasimov as one of his three deputies (Izvestiya, January 12).Read More
Global mining uses more than 57.000 km2 of land. This area is likely to expand in the coming years due to a rising mineral demand for low-carbon technologies.
The open pit of the Greenbushes mine, Western Australia, seen from the public mine lookout. Photo: Calistemon / Wikipedia / Calistemon / CC BY-SA 4.0
The more strategic minerals become, the more critical the land becomes below which they are found. This poses a number of challenges.
No cease-fire can possibly mute artillery barrages in Donbas, but the intensity of political battles exceeds the intensity of this cannonade.
Turkish Bayraktar Drone. Photo: Ukrainian Army / Wikimedia Commons
Russian stubborn and costly attacks on Bakhmut may yield only tactical success, but in geo-strategic terms, it is the shift in Western positions on supplying heavy arms to Ukraine that signifies the most significant development in the war since the start of 2023.
France’s announcement to withdraw its forces from the Sahel in November 2022, alongside growing dissatisfaction with the nation’s presence in the region, opens the door for other actors to exercise greater influence in the Sahel and West Africa.
Photo via Twitter / @swimming_free
As the security situation in the Sahel deteriorated dramatically over the past decade, the international response has predominantly been led by Western actors, especially France and the European Union (EU).Read More
It was a striking image for a traditional season of joy and hope: Russian President Vladimir Putin attending the Orthodox Christmas service all alone in one of the Kremlin’s cathedrals.
Vladimir Putin celebrating a less isolated Christmas in 2019. Photo: The Presidential Press and Information Office / Wikimedia Commons
This loneliness stands in contrast with his persistent attempts to show himself actively engaging with subordinates, particularly servicemen — for example, during his visit to the Southern Military District’s headquarters on December 31, 2022 (Kremlin.ru, December 31).
The new year of cheerful celebrations and renewed hopes has failed to arrive in Russia, which is sinking deeper into the vortex of President Vladimir Putin’s devastating war against Ukraine.
This image illustrates Putin’s New Year speech at the official presidential website kremlin.ru
Putin has duly delivered his traditional New Year’s message, emphasizing the sacred duty of defending the motherland (Meduza, December 31).
However, his best wishes did not produce any joy among the populace, which remains disconcerted with lost prosperity and worried about a new wave of mobilization (Nezavisimaya gazeta, December 24).
The first wave of mobilization, which was announced in September 2022 after many reassurances from the Kremlin that such dragooning would be unnecessary, was a big shock for society as many Russians had preferred to pretend that the “special military operation” launched on February 24, 2022 — again after many assertions that it would not happen — had no relevance for their everyday lives.Read More
Ukraine is confronted with a stark choice: fight on through a bitter winter with death raining from above, or initiate negotiations with Russia under unfavorable terms. Two-and-a-half millennia ago, the leaders of the Greek island of Melos confronted a similar choice.