Reflections on Humanitarian Negotiation

This blog provides reflections on the study and practice of humanitarian negotiation, delving into ethical considerations such as power, representation, compromise, competition and tacit aspects of negotiation.

Photo: Wikimedia Commons

People have probably always held humanitarian negotiations in human history as they have asked and argued for the right to help people in war, disaster and epidemics. In 2004, a how-to manual from the Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue formally named and analysed the practice. This was followed by a second manual from OCHA in 2006 that focused on negotiating with armed groups.Read More

UNRWA: In Anticipation of a Double Collapse

There is a looming infrastructural collapse of parts of UNRWA, the UN’s relief agency for Palestinian refugees. Such a collapse could bring down the Palestinian Authority (PA) in its wake. That would be a catastrophe for the situation on the occupied West Bank.

A view of Aida refugee camp. The camp, in the West Bank town of Bethlehem, was built in 1950 by UNRWA. Photo: Issam Rimawi / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

On the Israeli-occupied West Bank, things are going from bad to worse. The two-state solution has become a near-impossible vision, violence is rising and Palestinian desperation is becoming ever more obvious.Read More

On Duty: The Aftershock of Police Violence in France

The killing in late June of 17-year-old Nahel Merzouk in Paris, with a bullet fired point blank through a car window by a policeman, prompted a wave of rioting across cities in France. The damage from the riots was considerable, but more considerable still has been the aftershock at all levels of society.

Protestors climb on street signs during the protest to the death of 17-year-old Nahel, who was shot in the chest by police in Nanterre on June 27, 2023. Photo: Ibrahim Ezzat / Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Initially, this included signs of a new public receptiveness to the grieving, angry reminders from those on the brunt of racialized violence who have long been calling for radical reform of police practices in France.

But the pendulum quickly swung the other way: first, into outrage at the levels of destruction of public and private property as the riots ensued, and second, buoyed by this outrage, an increasingly virulent emphasis on the moral and social failure of families, on the need for more law and order, and the rapid normalizing of the notion that French youth need to be ‘recivilized’ in a broad-brush indictment aimed at young people from the poorest districts whose parents and grandparents typically arrived in France as workers through the different phases of colonial and postcolonial immigration.Read More

Moscow Seeks to Benefit From Fighting in Gaza

Russia’s war against Ukraine crosses the 600-day mark this week, and the fighting between Israel and the Hamas terrorists based in Gaza is on its tenth day. The effects of the latter on the former are still emerging.

Smoke rises following Israeli strikes in Gaza. Photo: Ahmed Zakot / SOPA Images / LightRocket via Getty Images

The interplay between these two major breakdowns in the world order is certain to be strong. Russian President Vladimir Putin already is seeking opportunities to benefit from the new turmoil.Read More

A New Geopolitical Chapter for the Middle East?

In recent years, several Arab countries have adopted a more pragmatic attitude towards Israel. Some have even signed official agreements. But much geopolitical progress is now in danger of being reversed – and not only within the region.

Saudi Arabian Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman meets with U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Riyadh on October 15, 2023. Photo: Royal Court of Saudi Arabia/Anadolu via Getty Images

Over recent years, the Palestinians have become increasingly isolated in the Arab part of the Middle East. In 2020, the Abraham Accords brought the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain and Morocco closer to Israel. And in recent weeks, there have been rumours that the regional superpower, Saudi Arabia, was close to concluding a similar agreement. But now the events of last weekend are forcing Middle Eastern countries to adopt clearer positions on the Palestinian conflict.Read More

Russia Does Not Want Peace – At Least, Not Now

Only the Kremlin can take a decision that would end the war in such a way as to achieve a credible and long-lasting peace in Europe.

What does the world look like when viewed from Moscow?

This is the question asked by the president of Norges Forsvarsforening (the Norwegian Defence Association – NFF) Lieutenant General (Ret.) Arne Bård Dalhaug, who served as the Senior Manager for the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission to Ukraine from 2016 to 2019.

Vladimir Putin during a meeting with military personnel of Russian Air Forces Base on October 12, 2023, in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. Photo: Contributor / Getty Images

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Does the Situation in Iran Call for a Second Nobel Peace Prize?

Since the last time an Iranian woman was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize, the situation in Iran has only got worse. This does not mean that the previous award was a failure.

Friday’s Nobel Peace Prize announcement of the winner for 2023 was an astonishing occurrence. Not because this year’s Nobel Peace Prize was unexpected or unique, quite the opposite: it is almost a carbon copy of the prize awarded exactly 20 years ago.

The 2023 Nobel Peace Prize laureate, Iranian human rights activist Narges Mohammadi in 2007. Photo: Morteza Nikoubazl / Nur Photo via Getty Images

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Putin Uses Valdai Club to Repeat Nuclear Bluff

Last week, the annual gathering of the Valdai International Discussion Club was held in Sochi, Russia. Today, this conference does not deserve the attention such events used to have a decade ago, when many Western experts saw it as a unique opportunity to gain access to Russian policy-makers, particularly President Vladimir Putin.

Putin at Valdai October 2023. Photo: President of Russia/kremlin.ru

The only topic touched upon during the conference that stood out from the wishful thinking about the resilience of the Russian economy and the platitudes on the shifts in world order was the pronounced emphasis on the nuclear theme.

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Community Deprivation Drives Far-Right Violence

Using disaggregated data for England, the authors show that community deprivation drives far-right violence. Their research reveals how deprivation fuels it, and how it may be possible to predict where such violence is likely, even when we cannot predict who may be carrying out attacks. They also suggest that efforts to reduce community deprivation can also help reduce political violence.

Harehills, Leeds, UK. Photo: Daniel Harvey Gonzalez/In Pictures via Getty Images

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Winter in the Long War Is Coming for Russia

Russia’s strategy for prevailing in the long war with Ukraine does not have a protracted timeline and looks no further than 2024.

The Kremlin in the winter. Photo: Vyacheslav Argenberg / Wikimedia Commons

This strategy is based on three premises:

  • economic performance will keep the war machine going;
  • Western support for Ukraine will erode and contract;
  • and the Ukrainian army’s capacity to conduct offensive operations will be exhausted.

All three are set to be tested during the winter, but it is Russia’s economic trajectory that came into focus over the past week.Read More