Tag: Ukraine War

Failure Looms Over Russia’s Decisive Offensive in Donbas

Triumphalist rhetoric coming out of Moscow notwithstanding, Russia’s war in Ukraine is not progressing according to plan (see EDM, April 11). Nevertheless, President Vladimir Putin repeated yet again last week (April 12) that the central objective of the massive re-invasion of Ukrainian territory starting on February 24 purportedly was always limited to seizing the whole of… Read more »

Putin Is Staking His Political Future on Victory in Ukraine – and Has Little Incentive to Make Peace

Despite stop-and-start peace talks, a resolution to the brutal war in Ukraine appears distant. Major cities in Ukraine are faltering. Civilians, including children, are dying of shrapnel and glass wounds, exposure and thirst. At the same time, Ukraine’s resilience and a coordinated global response means the war is not ending as many expected before it… Read more »

Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable

Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if the initial “Blitzkrieg” design was based on the assumption that the Ukrainian military would… Read more »

Different Responses to Mobility at Europe’s Borders

In the weeks since Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine significant proportions of Ukraine’s population has gone on the move, the majority of whom are internally displaced. By 29th March 2022, 4 million people had fled Ukraine across borders to neighbouring countries: Poland (2 million in 3 weeks), Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova (some reportedly to… Read more »

A Pope’s Dilemma

Pope Francis has condemned the war in Ukraine in strong words. He dismisses the assertion of Putin’s propaganda that it merely involves “military operations,” and instead condemns it as a war that causes “death, destruction, and distress.” But as head of the Catholic church and its diplomatic arm the “Holy See,” he has not confronted… Read more »

Putin’s First Assertive Move On the Energy Front Goes Astray

Combat operations on all key fronts of the Ukraine war continue non-stop, even if without decisive action, but the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline system continues without interruptions. This may appear aberrant given President Vladimir Putin’s well-documented propensity for “weaponizing” energy exports against European customers, most crudely during the… Read more »

A Popular Uprising Can Oust Putin

Putin’s place at the long table in the Kremlin is more insecure than ever, and even though he will cling to power, it is not inevitable that he will succeed. Fears that the so-called colour revolutions will spread to Russia have dogged Putin’s time in power. Colour revolutions in two of Russia’s neighbours, Georgia and… Read more »

Putin May Fall

We can be pretty sure that the likelihood of both a coup and a revolution in Russia is significantly higher today than it was a couple of months ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like becoming a historic event with far-reaching consequences. Alongside the loss of human life and devastation in Ukraine, the Russian economy… Read more »

Как влияет террор на украинское сопротивление – сдерживает или усиливает? Данные опроса из осажденной Украины

Вторжение в Украину, похоже, идет не совсем по плану Кремля. Как и во время Второй чеченской войны, российские войска прибегли к террору в отношении мирных граждан, надеясь, что украинцы сложат оружие. Террор принимает различные формы – от бомбардировок жилых домов до расстрелов эскадронами смерти. Но достигнет ли подобное насилие намеченной цели или — напротив —… Read more »