Tag: Ukraine War

Five Shifts in the Balance of War in Ukraine’s Favour

At the start of 2024, the deadlocked European war reached the balance point where Russia was at the peak performance, while Ukraine arrived at the dangerous minimum of its capabilities. Massive budget allocations ensured that Russian defense-industrial complex expanded production to the maximum possible level, while North Korea supplied wagon-loads of artillery shells and Iran delivered hundreds of Shahed-135 drones. On… Read more »

Breaking the Russian-Ukrainian Stalemate: Lessons from Military History

Today it is still the case that neither side seems to possess the military capability needed to end the war to its advantage, but there is also no prospect of peace negotiations anytime soon. Ukraine’s summer offensive did not alter the overall state of the war. From the perspective of military history, there is nothing… Read more »

Russian Siren Song of Peace and Baltic Warnings of War

Russian propaganda on the war against Ukraine illogically, but deliberately, combines three different narratives. First, President Vladimir Putin insists that his goals for the “special military operation” remain unchanged. Ukraine must be “neutralized,” and a pro-Russian government will be installed in Kyiv (Interfax, December 14). Second, Putin repeatedly confirms his readiness to engage in peace… Read more »

Ukraine’s Resilience and Russia’s Indifference Shape Their Strategies for 2024

The Russia-Ukraine war exhibits a stark asymmetry: Russia pursues aggression while Ukraine fights to preserve sovereignty, leading to divergent societal attitudes. The deadlocked Russia-Ukraine war remains strikingly asymmetric in its character and key features. The core of this asymmetry is plain clear: Russia persists with the crime of aggression and Ukraine keeps fighting for preserving its… Read more »

Russia Enters Third Year of War Diminished, Degraded, and Joyless

On the night of December 29, 2023, Russia conducted a series of massive missile strikes on Ukrainian cities. This operation was meant to add weight to President Vladimir Putin’s confident and unwavering words in a series of public events that concluded the year. It produced another failure, however, as most missiles were intercepted by Ukraine’s… Read more »

Russian Influence Diminished in Remaking the Middle East

The Kremlin has welcomed the Israel-Hamas truce in Gaza that began on November 24. The pause, however, does not fit into Russia’s larger designs for the Middle East. From Moscow’s perspective, further escalation would have been a much better option in disrupting the US-led world order.

Is the Time Ripe for Peace Diplomacy Regarding Ukraine?

In the war between Russia and Ukraine, the distance between the parties seems insurmountable. Ukraine has proposed a ‘peace formula’, and various other peace plans have also been put forward. Now Ukraine’s supporters are starting to signal that the time is ripe for diplomatic solutions.

Russia Tries and Fails to Gain a Foothold in Asia-Pacific

Few prospects worry Moscow more than a potential reduction of tensions between the United States and China. Such a development, even if half-hearted and temporary, would threaten a curtailment of Beijing’s support for Russia in the international arena — at least from Moscow’s perspective. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit set to take place in… Read more »

Chronic Refugees: A Burden on Poor Countries

We are continually reminded of how wars result in mass human migrations: think only of Palestine, Syria, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Sudan. In general, poor neighbouring countries shoulder most of the burden of housing these refugees, while rich countries do little to take in their share. The result has been to create ‘chronic’ refugees in… Read more »

Russian Nuclear Blackmail Remains Ineffective

The degradation of Russian morale in the trenches of Avdiivka and Bakhmut has driven Moscow to try altering the course of the war with a revival of nuclear blackmail tactics. On October 30, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that Western attempts to inflict strategic defeat on Russia has increased the risk of a direct… Read more »