On Friday 11 October, we will find out the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The announcement will take place against the background of full-scale wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as a record number of other conflicts around the world.
At noon on the day of the announcement of the Nobel Peace Prize, a peace dove flies from the windows of the Nobel Peace Center in Oslo, carrying the news of the new Nobel laureate. Photo: Johannes Granseth / Nobel Peace Center
Could the Nobel Committee decide that the situation is so bad that no one is worthy of the Peace Prize this year?
I have been asked this question repeatedly over the past few weeks. And there is no doubt that the world has become a more dangerous place.
Steeply rising conflict levels
PRIO’s report on Global Conflict Trends, which uses data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program, shows that in 2023, the number of armed conflicts worldwide was the highest since 1946. Last year, 59 armed conflicts were ongoing in 34 countries. This is almost twice the number of conflicts experienced during the optimistic years at the start of the 21st century, when the previous decade had seen a sharp decline in conflict levels.
Today, by contrast, we have just experienced a decade of steeply rising conflict levels. Since 2014, the number of conflicts has increased by almost 50 percent. The reasons are complex, but one important factor has been destabilization in the wake of the Arab Spring and the ensuing emergence of the Islamic State (IS). IS has expanded from Iraq and Syria and is now operating in many countries. Last year, IS was involved in conflicts in 12 countries, which remarkably is the lowest number since 2015.
Another important factor contributing to the rising conflict levels is the polarization of international relations, which has made it more difficult for the global community to agree on measures such as the deployment of peacekeeping forces. Moreover, states are often getting involved in other countries’ internal conflicts. Almost all the armed conflicts taking place worldwide are civil wars, but in 40 percent of these, at least one other country is directly involved in supplying troops, to either the government or the insurgents.
The main issue is not that new conflicts are breaking out more often, but that many conflicts involve multiple parties, making them more difficult to resolve. No significant peace agreement has been concluded since Colombia’s 2016 peace agreement.
People worry about global unrest
In advance of Arendalsuka (an annual week-long political gathering in Arendal, Norway), PRIO ran an opinion survey to ask participants whether they were concerned about current conflict trends. While we had expected a decisive response, we were surprised by the strength of the responses. When asked whether there are more armed conflicts today than 20 years ago, two-thirds of participants correctly answered ‘yes’. A majority also responded that democracy has declined worldwide. This decline is confirmed by research from the V-Dem Institute, which shows that on average, people around the world are experiencing the lowest level of democracy since the 1980s.
Our respondents also expressed significant concern that the situation may worsen. 41 percent thought it likely that a new world war would break out during the coming decade, while only 33 percent thought such an event unlikely. Fear of more warfare in Europe is even greater: 55 percent of respondents expected there to be a new war in Europe in the coming decade.
Our findings revealed widespread anxiety among Norwegians that we are on the verge of significant global unrest. The number of Norwegian respondents who believe that a new world war is likely in the near future was greater than those who do not. There is also significant concern that such a war could reach Norway. More than a quarter of survey respondents thought that armed conflict was likely to take place on Norwegian territory in the coming decade.
Efforts for peace in 2023
Given the precarious status of peace, people have been asking whether the Nobel Peace Prize should be awarded at all. Dan Smith, director of the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), is among those who have speculated that the prize could be withheld. In the 123-year-long history of the Nobel Peace Prize, the prize has been withheld only 19 times, most recently in 1972 (in addition, the 1976 prize was awarded one year late, in 1977).
A decision to withhold the prize would be a complete admission of failure and probably contrary to the terms of Alfred Nobel’s bequest. According to Nobel’s will, the Peace Prize should be awarded to the person who has done the most to promote peace in the preceding year. A decision by the Nobel Committee to withhold the 2024 prize would imply that there were no significant efforts to bring about peace in 2023.
Fortunately this was not the case, and accordingly the committee should not reach such a conclusion. In the situation we now find ourselves in, where many people are reacting with hopelessness to the rising dominance of armed conflict, it is important to focus attention on people who have made great efforts to promote peace, even though they may not attract much media attention.
In PRIO’s list of favourites for the Nobel Peace Prize, we focus on a number of such candidates. Our favourite is the ODIHR, the European organization responsible for observing elections. The dismantling of democratic institutions has resulted in the loss of non-violent mechanisms to resolve conflicts. Electoral observors have an important role to play in ensuring compliance with democratic rules of play.
What the Peace Prize can reward
Amidst news reports dominated by the conflicts closest to us both geographically and emotionally, such as those in Ukraine and the Middle East, other serious conflicts blur into the background. The Peace Prize can provide an opportunity to reward efforts to assist the victims of these ‘forgotten’ conflicts. One example is the efforts of Emergency Response Rooms, a grassroots network in Sudan, a country that is currently experiencing one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises.
The Peace Prize can also be used to emphasize the value of international cooperation. A large majority of respondents in PRIO’s survey from Arendalsuka stated that institutions and organizations tasked with upholding global peace are seen as less important than before. PRIO’s list of Peace Prize favourites includes UN organizations that in various ways are important for peace, including UNRWA, the International Court of Justice and UNESCO.
At a time when war cries are sounding, it is important that we improve our ability to promote peace.
Accordingly we must boost peace diplomacy, human rights, democratic institutions and humanitarian relief efforts. It is my firm expectation that the Nobel Committee will use this year’s prize to focus attention on one of these important areas.
- Henrik Urdal is the Director of the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO)
- This text was first published in Norwegian by Aftenposten 9 October 2024
- Translation from Norwegian: Fidotext