Hezbollah Is Holding Lebanon Hostage

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security

In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon in order to drive out the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). The invasion marked the start of a dangerous balance of terror between Israel and Hezbollah.

Hundreds of people gather to follow the speech of Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, on a screen, in Beirut, Lebanon on November 3, 2023. Photo: Houssam Shbaro/Anadolu via Getty Images

Lebanon held its breath on Friday 3 November. People stood by their packed suitcases, ready to travel to the airport to leave the country.

Even Lebanon’s prime minister, Najib Mikati, sat in front of the television, waiting to find out whether the country he leads was at war. Then Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah, the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, came to the lectern.Read More

Is the Time Ripe for Peace Diplomacy Regarding Ukraine?

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Security, Ukraine War

In the war between Russia and Ukraine, the distance between the parties seems insurmountable. Ukraine has proposed a ‘peace formula’, and various other peace plans have also been put forward.

Now Ukraine’s supporters are starting to signal that the time is ripe for diplomatic solutions.

Early attempts at peace diplomacy between Russia and Ukraine: Turkish President Erdogan ahead of the peace talks between delegations from Russia and Ukraine in Istanbul in March 2022. Photo: Arda Kucukkaya/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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Russia Tries and Fails to Gain a Foothold in Asia-Pacific

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

Few prospects worry Moscow more than a potential reduction of tensions between the United States and China.

Such a development, even if half-hearted and temporary, would threaten a curtailment of Beijing’s support for Russia in the international arena — at least from Moscow’s perspective.

A view of the venue of the APEC Economic Leaders’ Week the days before the opening in San Francisco, California in November 2023. Photo: Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu via Getty Images

The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit set to take place in San Francisco this week starting on November 15 will serve as a testing ground for the Kremlin’s fears.

The planned meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping will likely constitute the summit’s main event.Read More

Chronic Refugees: A Burden on Poor Countries

Posted by & filed under Migration

We are continually reminded of how wars result in mass human migrations: think only of Palestine, Syria, Myanmar, Afghanistan, Ukraine and Sudan.

In general, poor neighbouring countries shoulder most of the burden of housing these refugees, while rich countries do little to take in their share. The result has been to create ‘chronic’ refugees in fragile, unstable neighbouring countries.

A view from Burj El Barajneh Palestinian refugee camp located in Beirut, Lebanon. Photo: Mahmut Geldi/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

This year, Israel celebrated its 75th anniversary. Accordingly, it is 75 years since 750,000 Palestinians fled. This mass forced displacement was caused by a combination of direct expulsion, widespread fear-mongering propaganda, fears of massacres and ongoing violent conflict.Read More

Russian Nuclear Blackmail Remains Ineffective

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

The degradation of Russian morale in the trenches of Avdiivka and Bakhmut has driven Moscow to try altering the course of the war with a revival of nuclear blackmail tactics.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu at Beijing Xiangshan Forum on October 30, 2023 in Beijing, China. Photo: VCG/VCG via Getty Images

On October 30, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu stated that Western attempts to inflict strategic defeat on Russia has increased the risk of a direct clash between nuclear powers (RIA Novosti, October 30).

Yet each time Russian leaders engage in nuclear brinksmanship, resolute international disapproval forces them to take a step back.Read More

Argentina’s Desperate Choice

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

No matter who wins the presidential election in Argentina on 19 November, the result will be difficult to understand.

Presidential candidate Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza greets supporters during a rally on November 4, 2023 in San Isidro, Argentina. Milei will face Sergio Massa of Union Por La Patria in the presidential runoff on November 19. Photo: Tomas Guesta / Getty Images

We will have to explain either why the Argentinians have elected an apparently mentally disturbed radical libertarian like Javier Milei, or why they have elected the incumbent economy minister, Sergio Massa, in the midst of a profound, and partially self-inflicted, economic crisis.

The answers to both these questions will inevitably include the words inflation, corruption and polarization.Read More

But “Evil” Is a Dangerous Word

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Religion, Security

The conflict in the Middle East can only be resolved with good and patient political craftsmanship. It will not end until everyone in the region has the same rights.

The Music Festival site where hundreds were killed and dozens taken by Hamas militants near the border with Gaza on October 12, 2023 in Kibbutz Re’im, Israel. Israeli soldiers and civilians have also been taken hostage by Hamas and moved into Gaza. This 12 October attack prompted a declaration of war by the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu Photo: Leon Neal / Getty Images

“I understand the Jews’ need for security,” said the sheikh to Jewish, Christian and Muslim leaders.

The sheikh is one of the most outspoken opponents of Israel’s occupation of the West Bank and East Jerusalem. “Did you hear what he said?” I chaired the meeting and asked.

There was silence. It was a golden moment. And then the debate began about whether the Palestinians or the Jews should feel the least secure.Read More

The Middle East at a Crossroads: Gaza, Israel, and Lebanon

Posted by & filed under Middle East, Regions and Powers

The heart of the Middle East, known for its intricate geopolitics, ever-evolving conflicts, and tumultuous history, is once again in the throes of change. As I stand here in Oslo, my thoughts are irresistibly drawn to Lebanon, my homeland, and the crises that have unfolded in the region to which I am closely connected.

Relatives of victims who lost their lives during the Beirut Port blast in August 2020. The explosion killed more than 200 people, injured some 6,000 more, and left some 300,000 homeless. Photo: Houssam Shabaro/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

Amidst this chaos, I find it challenging to encapsulate my academic and professional journey — a blend of legal intricacies, Middle Eastern complexities, and a deep concern for the unfolding events.Read More

Putin and Xi Meet as Hidden Differences Mount

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

Foreign trips are now rare occasions for Russian President Vladimir Putin. As such, it was highly important to him to hold a position above that of the other participants at the Belt and Road Forum in Beijing on October 17 and 18.

Chinese Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping obliged by making Putin the guest of honor and granting his “dear friend” a three-hour meeting.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Third Belt and Road Forum on October 18, 2023 in Beijing. Photo: Suo Takekuma-Pool/Getty Images

Xi did not mention the two sides’ “partnership without limits,” the descriptor used during Putin’s previous visit on the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

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Lebanon’s Impending Catastrophes

Posted by & filed under Middle East, Regions and Powers, Security

Lebanon is teetering on the brink of an abyss that it is not equipped to deal with. If Hezbollah drags Lebanon into a war, the consequences will be catastrophic for a country that is already deep in economic and political crisis.

At the time of writing, Hezbollah, together with Palestinian groups in southern Lebanon, has attacked targets in Israel for almost two consecutive weeks and Israel has responded to the attacks.

Lebanese women, wave Hezbollah flags after a rally in support of Palestinians in Gaza on October 20, 2023 in Beirut, Lebanon. Photo: Manu Brabo / Getty Images

So far – and here things could change rapidly – the border clashes have remained within the limits of an understanding between Israel and Hezbollah as to what kinds of combat can take place without further escalation. Read More