Somalia’s Hope for the Future? The Return of Young Diaspora Somalis

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Young Somalis at the University of Simad, Mogadishu. Wikimedia Commons

The Somali conflict has affected Somali citizens inside and outside the Somali region for over 25 years. While Somaliland and Puntland have enjoyed relative stability for more than two decades, conditions are much more fragile in south-central Somalia, and residents in many parts of the Somali region face considerable levels of insecurity still. In late 2012, however, the first permanent central government since the start of the civil war was installed in Mogadishu. This increased expectations that south-central Somalia is transitioning towards greater stability and created hope amongst the Somali diaspora. Since 2011-2012, the number of people returning to south-central Somalia has increased considerably.Read More

Norway’s Role in South Sudan’s Independence

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In an interview, 21 November with the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten, Øystein. H. Rolandsen at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) explains why it is a misunderstanding to hold Norway and other Western countries accountable for South Sudan’s secession. The Norwegian government and civil society organisations have for decades been extensively engaged in efforts to bring… Read more »

How Much Should we Tolerate?

Posted by & filed under Law and Ethics, Security

Henrik Syse presents his book on the topic of this article: “Det vi sier til hverandre – Om tanke, tale og toleranse“. Photo: Iver Kleiven, PRIO

In his New Year’s Eve speech last year, King Harald used the expression “We should say kind words”. Some weeks later, many of us were saying “Je suis Charlie”, expressing solidarity with a periodical that published satire that many people certainly found was not kind at all. Can we reconcile these sentiments? Yes, I believe so.

Where we stand in the debate about freedom of expression and the responsibility that comes with that freedom will often depend upon which side of the debate we are arguing from. A person who is fearful that freedom of expression is under attack in our society, may point easily – and unfortunately – to examples of public-sector employees being gagged; controversial opinions being suppressed through self-censorship; or attempts at pressuring film makers to hand over source materials. A person who fears that we are insufficiently critical of freedom of expression may point just as easily to the witch-hunts, bullying and insults that flourish online; threats and calls to extremism; or to people being branded as idiots because they have said something controversial or simply dared to be themselves.

Can we both defend a broad freedom of expression and fight for a better culture of expression, without the one destroying the other? I strongly believe that we can and must — because a good and open discourse within society is arguably dependent upon society’s ability to accommodate both of these goals. We must defend a broad freedom of expression and not least understand why that freedom is so important, and at the same time struggle tirelessly for a civilized, open and inviting debate, preferably one where people don’t go home in tears after an exchange of opinions – or in which they quite simply don’t dare to participate.Read More

Russia Breaks the Partnership with Turkey – but Builds a New One with Iran

Posted by and & filed under Regions and Powers

De-escalation of the crisis between Russia and Turkey, caused by the first ever air fight between them resulting in a destruction of a Russian Su-24, has suddenly become the hottest issue in global affairs. What has been overshadowed by this clash of military missions and political ambitions is the strengthening of ties between Russia and Iran achieved in the course of President Vladimir Putin’s visit to Tehran on 23 November 2015. This partnership-building may be of importance for the Syrian war, for the wider Middle East and beyond.

Hassan Rouhani and Vladimir Putin meeting in 2013. Wikimedia Commons

All war trails lead to Damascus

Since the start of Russian military intervention in Syria on 30 September 2015, Russia and Iran have to all intents and purposes become military allies. The scale of Iranian direct involvement in this convoluted civil war is unclear, but the track record of sustained support from Iran to the al-Assad regime is beyond doubt. One perfect illustration of the newly-achieved brotherhood-in-arms was the escorting by Iranian F-14s of Russian strategic bombers Tu-95MS, when the latter delivered a cruise missile strike on targets in Syria last week. Turkish hit on the Russian Su-24 this Monday has brought into a sharp focus the fact that the main target of Russian air campaign is not ISIS (or Daesh) forces but various other rebel groups, including for that matter the Turkomans. US President Barack Obama tried to explain to Putin the imperative to make a “strategic adjustment” and French President Francois Hollande travels to Moscow with the message of shifting the targeting to Daesh – but it is hard to expect now that Moscow would swallow the insult of Turkish attack and discover the benefit of joining the US-led anti-ISIS coalition.

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The Threat from ISIS is not Military

Posted by & filed under Non-state Conflict Actors, PRIO Annual Peace Address, Security

For more than a decade, alarmists have essentially argued that, because the 9/11 attackers proved to be good with box-cutters, they would soon be able to fabricate nuclear weapons.

And now, after the dramatic and horrible Paris terror attacks, a similar process of alarmed exaggeration seems to be happening with ISIS. In a reactive pose that has become routine for it, the group has claimed responsibility for — or, more accurately, boorishly celebrated — the tragic venture.

French police gathering evidence at the Bataclan theatre on 14 November. Photo: Maya-Anaïs Yataghène

In fact, whatever its degree of complicity in the Paris attacks, ISIS does not deserve credit for great military prowess. Its ability to behead defenseless hostages certainly should not be taken to suggest that. And its major military advance, the conquest of the city of Mosul in Iraq last year, was essentially a fluke. Its idea was to hold part of the city for a while in an effort, it seems, to free some prisoners. The defending Iraqi army, “trained” by the American military at enormous cost to US taxpayers, simply fell apart in confusion and disarray, abandoning weaponry, and the city, to the tiny group of seeming invaders.Read More

This Week in South Sudan – Week 47

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Monday 16 November SPLA (IO) and government forces trade accusations over recent clashes in areas south west of Rubkotna county, Unity state. Explaining South Sudan’s peace deal: Part 25: How will victims be compensated? Wednesday 18 November The SPLM parliamentary caucus held a closed-door meeting where they agreed to give President Salva Kiir new constitutional… Read more »

How did the 13 November Paris Killers get their Guns?

Posted by & filed under Urbanization and Environment

Full details of the arms used in the 13 November massacres will emerge in time. This post provides some information on illicit automatic weapons, such as the Kalashnikov, in France, and how they reach illicit markets.

Tracing firearms by serial numbers is a valuable aid in fighting crime. Photo: OSCE

Overall, it appears that there is a pool of several thousand illicit military style firearms in France and relatively small numbers are trafficked in from abroad. Such quantities mean that terrorists and criminals in France and neighbouring countries can obtain Kalashnikovs and similar weapons, and that should be a matter of great concern.

Nevertheless, Europe is very far from being ‘awash’ with illegal Kalashnikovs or similar automatic firearms. The relatively small numbers being trafficked and in illicit possession in Western Europe suggest that better coordinated police action – especially improved coordination, intelligence and analysis of illicit firearm markets – could meaningfully reduce illicit trafficking and possession.Read More

This Week in South Sudan – Week 46

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Tuesday 10 November UNICEF has estimated that nearly 1,500 children were killed since the start of South Sudan’s civil war, according to a recent briefing released by the agency.  Wednesday 11 November Voice of America: South Sudan in Focus News Video. Thursday 12 November SPLA (IO) and government forces trade accusations over attacks in Leer… Read more »

Paris Attacks may have Consequences for European Cities

Posted by & filed under Uncategorized, Urbanization and Environment

Attacks in Paris show how urban security challenges are becoming more complex. They ask difficult questions and present no easy answers.

Peace for Paris by Jean Julien.

Friday’s attacks in Paris were an alarming reminder of the threats of organised violence in European cities. This comes less than a year after the assault against French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, and days after similar attacks in Beirut, in Lebanon, and Sinai, in Egypt. The coordinated events in the French capital were quickly linked with islamic terrorist groups, with ISIS on Saturday claiming responsibility. In response, the French President Francois Hollande declared a state of emergency, implemented curfews in Paris, and took the unprecedented step of closing French borders. Balancing outrage and agony, Hollande promised the response against those responsible to be ‘remorseless’.Read More

This Week in South Sudan – Week 45

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Monday 2 November New accusations of ceasefire violations in areas south of Malakal, Upper Nile state. Wednesday 4 November Al Jazeera: ‘Hiding from horror in the swamps of South Sudan’ South Sudan’s government will release $10 million in a bid to shore up the economy and stabilize the rapidly rising black market exchange rate. President… Read more »