How Can States and Non-State Actors Respond to Authoritarian Resurgence?

Posted by & filed under Governance, Non-state Conflict Actors

Anti-democracy, pro-Sharia public demonstration in Maldives, 2014. By RLoutfy.

Two weeks ago, the Monkey Cage ran a piece by Matthew Baum and Phil Potter suggesting that the policy of “democracy-promotion” has gone out of style.[1] I think they’re right that in many circles democracy-promotion is politically passé and that, more broadly, democracy advocates are really having a tough couple of years. In the midst of pushback against democracy agendas within democracies themselves, they are also dealing with the “comeback” of authoritarianism. [2] Setting aside the debate as to whether the recent resurgence is overstated, it does appear to be the case that while democratic countries are questioning the wisdom of promoting republics abroad, authoritarian regimes are pushing back against civil society, activists, and oppositionists, seeing them as a direct threat to their established orders.Read More

Putin Flexes Diplomatic Muscles on Iran

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Not very sincere smiles: Putin meeting with Prince Mohammed bin Salman at the St. Petersburg economic forum.

“Russia has been rather ambivalent about striking the deal, not because it is worried about the Iranian nuclear program, but because it is worried about the Iranian oil,” said Pavel K. Baev, a researcher at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo.

Mr. Baev noted that at several crucial points in the long negotiations, Russia had seemed to be working to complicate things. In November, for example, it announced a new deal to build nuclear reactors in Iran, and in April said it was resuming the sale of S-300 surface-to-air missiles that Iran had ordered before a 2010 arms embargo was authorized by the United Nations Security Council.

“In the crucial final stage of negotiations, however, Moscow refrained from any spoiling,” Mr. Baev said, adding that “the real influence behind this self-restraint, in my opinion, is China, which wanted the deal concluded and impressed upon Russia the undesirability of any sabotage.”

For the rest of the article, see New York Times, July 15.

Most Muslims Celebrate Eid

Posted by and & filed under Migration, Religion

Now that Ramadan, the Muslim month of fasting, is ending, most Muslims – in Oslo, as elsewhere in the world – celebrate the festival of Eid. It is a time for celebration. For many Muslims, it is also a time to help those less well-off than themselves, either through the annual “religious tax” zakat or through other forms of charity. Muslims in Oslo are engaged in a range of charitable, humanitarian and development efforts. We have learned about these through our research over the past four years, exploring development involvement in Pakistan and beyond, among the Pakistani diaspora. However, charitable work and commitment to social causes are not what dominates current media debates about Muslims. Rather current debates are unfortunately often characterized by stereotypes about what it means to be Muslim, at times coupled with lacking knowledge.

A table set for the celebration of Eid. Photo: CC/Phalinn Ooi

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Greek Agreement and Iranian Deal leave Russia Disappointed and Irrelevant

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

The Iranians are very satisfied, but the Russians are worried.

It was a rare coincidence in world politics that two pivotal and protracted negotiation processes—the European Union’s talks with Greece on managing its debt, and the “P5+1” talks on managing the Iranian nuclear program—both culminated in crucial agreements at the start of this week (July 13–14). Russia was a party (albeit not a very active one by the end) to the bargaining with Iran, but not with Greece (while demonstrating close engagement); and it has large stakes in both crises. Typically, while declaring support for reaching comprehensive agreements in both cases, Moscow was, in fact, more interested in the talks breaking down, so that the EU would plunge into a deep mess marked by a “Grexit” and Iran would remain isolated by the sanctions regime. However, the two landmark compromises signify a big step forward in enhancing the governability of world order, which leaves Russia—as a revisionist power that favors a crisis of the West-imposed global order—quite irrelevant.

The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, July 14.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 28

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Monday 6 July A customs officer was wounded and three freight trucks were torched when armed men attacked the border town of Nimule near Uganda. Rebecca Garang de Mabior said Salva Kiir removed her as Minister of Roads and Bridges in 2007 after she raised concerns about large, unapproved payments to the Sudanese construction company, Eyat… Read more »

The Genocide in Srebrenica

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

On 11 July this year, a number of heads of state and foreign ministers, including Bill Clinton, will meet on a plain seven kilometres outside Srebrenica. They will be there to commemorate the fact that it is twenty years since over 8000 men and boys were killed while the women were put to flight and were subjected to systematic persecution here in the heart of Europe. The site where they will be gathering, Potočari, was the headquarters of the UN forces who were supposed to protect the people of Srebrenica. Their total failure to protect the people of the little town as they had promised to remains a lasting brand of shame, on the international organisation. Potočari is now a cemetary and memorial site for the many lives that were lost.

Gravestones at the Potočari genocide memorial near Srebrenica. Photo: Michael Büker, Wikimedia Commons

The war in Bosnia from 1992 – 1995 was brutal. Few had believed that ethnic cleansing could ever take place in Europe after the Second World War. The people of East Bosnia, where Srebrenica lies, were particularly hard hit by this war, and the Muslim population was sometimes wiped out and sometimes put to flight from areas where they were in the minority. They therefore gathered in areas where they had been in the majority, and became Muslim enclaves. One such place was Srebrenica. In 1993, the French General Philippe Morillon, who was commander of the UN protection force UNPROFOR, visited the town. He was shocked at what he saw. The town was overcrowded, and there was hardly any drinking water left. Food, medicines and other vital commodities were lacking. In response to what he saw, Morillon proclaimed that he would guarantee that the town was safe, and that the UN would protect the townspeople and never leave them.

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Greece’s Russian Fantasy; Russia’s European Delusion

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The striking outcome of this Sunday’s Greek referendum is that the collective attitude departed so decisively from common sense. The question on the ballot was convoluted, but the voters were well-informed about the EU’s demands. Having spent a week lining up at ATMs, Greeks grasped the reality of the coming bankruptcy—and yet, they chose to reject the clear demands of their creditors.

Vladimir Putin and Alexis Tsipras meeting in April. Photo: www.kremlin.ru

One important part of the explanation for an apparently self-punishing choice is Russia. Many Greeks see Russia as a state that upholds its sovereignty and defies the EU diktat. This rosy view—centered on the idea of dignity—conveniently overlooks Russia’s aggression against Ukraine and its threats against the independence of the Baltic states.

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This Week in South Sudan – Week 27

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Monday 29 June South Sudan’s proposed budget for the upcoming fiscal year, is described as “ambitious under the current circumstances” with the ongoing civil war hampering the economy. International Crisis Group: South Sudan: No Sanctions without a Strategy. South Sudanese rebels’ allied to Riek Machar claimed their forces have regained control of Leer county in… Read more »

The Rise of Political Buddhism in Myanmar

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Religion

Narrow Burman-Buddhist nationalism remains the country’s biggest barrier to sustainable political reform.

The Organization for the Protection of Race and Religion, known by the Burmese acronym Ma Ba Tha, is gaining ground in Myanmar. It has also been receiving increased international attention—last month for its proposal to ban Muslim headscarves in public schools.

A Buddhist monk adjusts his robe at a monastery affiliated with the Ma Ba Tha (Organization for the Protection of Race and Religion) on the outskirts of Yangon. The Ma Ba Tha organization, mainly active in Yangon and the northern city of Mandalay, promotes hardline Buddhist nationalism in Myanmar.

The organization was founded in 2014, when central figures from the more widely known 969 movement started campaigning for four laws to ban polygamy, restrict interfaith marriages and religious conversions, and enforce birth control measures among groups with high rates of population growth. All four laws, which are aimed at Myanmar’s Muslim population, passed parliament earlier this year. The new initiative to legally ban Muslim headscarves in public schools is the group’s latest.

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