Russia Makes Haste in Severing Ties with Europe

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

On the road in Eastern Ukraine (photo from Novaya gazeta).

Russia has achieved much success last week in its rush toward self-isolation, and perhaps the most demonstrative step was made in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). Sergei Naryshkin, the Chairman of the State Duma, came to Strasbourg as the head of the Russian delegation expecting to reach a compromise on the issue of restoring Russia’s full participation in this important pan-European forum. But he was so irked by the international body’s decision to prolong its sanctions against Russia (including the suspension of the right to vote) for another three months that he stormed out of the Palace of Europe and announced that his country would abstain from partaking in the PACE proceedings until the end of 2015.

The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, February 2.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 5

Posted by

Monday 26 January Foreign Policy article ‘Inside the White House Fight over the slaughter in South Sudan’ focuses on the threat of an arms embargo and the slow pace of American diplomacy on South Sudan. South Sudan fighting grinds on, one year after the Cessation of Hostilities agreement was signed. Tuesday 27 January The UN… Read more »

Why Assisted Return Programmes Must Be Evaluated

Posted by & filed under Migration

Rejected asylum seekers often resist the legal obligation to return. Consequently, European policy makers tasked with migration managament have turned to so-called ‘Assisted Voluntary Return and Reintegration programmes’ (AVRRs) to incentivize return to and support reintegration in the country of origin. Such programmes are described as less politically costly, more humane, simpler and cheaper than deportation. But with very limited monitoring and evaluation of AVRRs we know little about how well they work and whether the promised support is given. In a recent policy brief, I outline some of the compelling reasons to monitor and evaluate AVRRs.

It may seem as if return programmes are all about logistics, but a comprehensive evaluation should raise a wide range of analytical questions. Image: radarqnet, and Lauren Manning, used under CC BY 2.0.

Read More

Legality and Courtesy

Posted by & filed under Law and Ethics, Religion

In his opinion article in the Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten on 21 January, Per Edgar Kokkvold (secretary general in the Norwegian Press Association) stated the obvious, “It is people who must be protected – and who are protected under current legislation, under the law that prohibits discriminatory or hateful utterances, persecution or insults based on religion or belief. But here it is the individual person who is protected, not the religion. Religions and beliefs must be open to insult.”

This is the position under Norwegian law, and this is the position that Norwegian politicians – and the Church of Norway – want to continue.

What is more remarkable is that Kokkvold does not comprehend that this was the position adopted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 2006 in the very statement that Kokkvold cites: the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has “great understanding” for the fact that the Danish caricatures “are experienced as offensive by Muslims worldwide”.

Expressing “great understanding” is not the same as saying that the caricatures should be illegal. It is a phrase that conveys empathy.

Read More

Amid Mounting Domestic Troubles, Putin Tries to Regain Initiative in Eastern Ukraine

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Russia makes a bit of Winter War in Ukraine.

The sharp escalation of hostilities in eastern Ukraine last week (January 22) has disheartened many in Europe who had hoped for a gradual resolution of the Ukraine conflict. On the other hand, it has been a welcome return to the path of victory for many in Russia who consume or produce the flow of war propaganda. For some observers, the fragility of the ceasefire and the impossibility of “freezing” the conflict in the present configuration were beyond doubt, so the question that is looming large in the commentary is not “Why?” but rather “Why now?”

The rest of the article can be read in Eurasia Daily Monitor, January 26.

Can we Comprehend the Incomprehensible?

Posted by & filed under Uncategorized

In 1945, most of us believed that genocide could never happen again. What happened to Jews and Roma (Gypsies) made such a strong impression on us that we believed that the time was definitively past when people murdered each other simply because they belonged to different races or followed different religions or philosophies of life.

But then it did happen again… Gravestones at the Potočari genocide memorial near Srebrenica. Photo Michael Bueker. CC BY-SA 3.0

Read More

More on the Waning of War

Posted by & filed under Conflict Patterns

On 22 December I reported in this blog on an article by political science professor Øyvind Østerud 18 December in the leading Norwegian newspaper Aftenposten that attacked Steven Pinker and ‘large parts of peace research’ for using ‘relative numbers’, i.e. numbers weighted by population, to assess long-term trends in the severity of war. In my brief response to Østerud, published in the print version of Aftenposten on 28 December, I pointed out that both absolute and relative numbers of battle-related deaths have declined after World War II. I also argued that although criticizing established truths is an important part of the research process, skepticism alone does not advance science. (I posted a longer version in the comment field to Østerud’s article as well as on this blog.) Østerud responded on 2 January and acknowledged that ‘absolute numbers belong to the same breath as relative numbers’. In a further rejoinder published on 3 January I queried Østerud on the nature of the column in which he published his original article. This column is dedicated to exposing ‘incompetent research, poor popularization, political proposals without a knowledge base, and sheer fraud’. Which of these four deadly sins were committed by Steven Pinker and assorted peace researchers? This question remains unanswered.

Read More

This Week in South Sudan – Week 4

Posted by

Tuesday 20 January According to the SPLM/A, its forces are still fighting the SPLM/A (IO) in Lakes state.  At least 11 civilians were killed and three wounded in an attack on Kworijik near Juba in Central Equatoria State. The attack was allegedly carried out by neighboring Mundari raiders. Wednesday 21 January The South Sudan government… Read more »

Boko Haram does not have the Fire Power of the Islamic State

Posted by & filed under Non-state Conflict Actors, Regions and Powers, Security

Boko Haram’s influence and cruelty is still increasing. On the 3rd of January the Islamist group first attacked Baga, situated at the riverside of Lake Chad in the north of the State of Borno. They then came back several days later and demolished the entire city and its surrounding villages. The attack reportedly caused more than 2000 victims, although the numbers are not verifiable. The Nigerian army considers it as the most deadly attack since the beginning of the Islamist insurrection in 2009, so fare causing more than 13 000 causalities. 

Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos, specialist on Nigeria, and PRIO Global Fellow, analyses the multiplication and intensification of the Islamist group’s deadly attacks at the outset of this year in this interview by Jean-Louis le Touzet.

Boko Haram. Photo: Africa – News and Analysis

An attack on Saturday 10 January particularly affected the population in Maiduguri; a bomb attached to a 10-year old girl killed at least 19 people. Specialist on Nigeria and researcher at the Development Research Institute, Marc-Antoine Pérouse de Montclos, discusses the central state´s incapacity to contain the attacks in the North-East and to protect its own population, just as the presidential elections are to take place in mid-February in the most populated country in Africa.Read More

Surveillance Under Control?1

Posted by & filed under Security

We cannot make do without surveillance, and even political actors must expect to be kept under observation if they espouse extreme positions. But we must keep surveillance under control. This article tells the story of the information about me that had lain in the files of the police security service and to which I gained access in 2001. It also records some reflections that have emerged in my mind about ways to improve legal protection for people who come to the attention of the state security services.2

I stood trial with Owen Wilkes in the Oslo City Court in May 1981 and then in the Norwegian Supreme Court in February 1982. While I have gained access to my (illegally assembled) secret police records up to 1977, I have been refused access to the (presumably more interesting) records for the period 1977-82 – despite the fact that there is no longer any reasonable justification for classifying them. Photo: Arne Pedersen, Dagbladet

As one author summed up the new women’s movement of the 1970s, ‘What was personal became political’.3 This was also the case for me. I had long been interested in security policy and intelligence matters, but not particularly concerned with political or other kinds of surveillance. I thought – perhaps somewhat naively – that a person who is not involved in any kind of subversive activity does not have much to lose by being subjected to a limited amount of surveillance. As regards closed-circuit television cameras in public places, this is still my basic position.

Read More