How did the Paris Killers Acquire their Guns?

Posted by & filed under Non-state Conflict Actors

At present we have very little information on the guns used last week by Saïd and Chérif Kouachi to commit a massacre at the offices of the publication Charlie Hebdo; and by Amedy Coulibaly in several shootings in Paris. They were armed with Kalashnikov pattern guns, however as nearly 200 different versions of the Kalashnikov have been produced around the world since the introduction of the AK-47, at the time of writing there isn’t enough information to start working out how they obtained the guns used in the attacks. 

One of the killers, Amedy Coulibaly, posed next to a firearm in a video; and it has been identified as a Czech made VZ-58 Compact. Screenshot from video.

This blog post is intended to clarify one misconception that has been present in the media and present some information on arms trafficking in Western Europe in order to show the most likely means by which they acquired their arms.

I’ve been asked a few times about a news report entitled Paris Hebdo attack: France awash with black-market weaponry which mentions unnamed ‘expert s‘ who state that despite strong gun regulations in France “While the exact number is not known, estimates run to 10 to 20 million illegal weapons in circulation in France’s population of 65 million.” This estimate makes France seem like a war zone such as Libya and is highly misleading. Read More

The Road to Hell is Paved With Rapid Reactions

Posted by & filed under Law and Ethics, Religion

In the wake of a vicious crime, caution and restraint are a virtue.

We don’t really have to use a terror act as an excuse to throw up all our discomforts about coexistence, tolerance, and difference. Mural of Guernica by Pablo Picasso, from Wikimedia.

Once upon a time, in the realm of Xanadu, two and a half dim-witted but well-armed, well-funded and well-trained professional criminals committed cold-blooded murder, commando-style. While committing their crime, they uttered two sentences vocally and publically, following their script to a T.

First they cried/lied: “Allah o Akbar.” Obviously, anyone who takes the sacred life of another human being either does not believe in God, or tries to be God himself, in which case he is a lunatic. But the citizens of Xanadu took their words literally and engaged in virulent debates with each other on religion: whether Islam was inherently violent, Muslims innately intolerant, whether they should live their religion or be amalgamated in western societies. Freedom of religion and belief took a first hit when the criminal terrorists rhymed their lie to the sound of automatic rifle.

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Who is Charlie? And What Now?

Posted by & filed under Law and Ethics, Media

On Sunday 11 January France witnessed the largest rally on records of people taking to the streets with close to 4 million people all over the country, of which almost 1,5 million in Paris. The world saw one of the largest gatherings of state leaders in one place outside of those we witness during the annual UN General Assemblies, in what was reportedly a nightmare for the security services. Prior to this, the social media sphere saw one of the largest spreads of a hashtag, with more than 3,4 million #jesuischarlie in less than 24 hours.

Plantu, Le Monde

 

So who is this Charlie able to trigger such massive mobilization?

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Futile Hopes for the Dubious Summit in Astana

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Moscow Echo shows solidarity with Charlie Hebdo.

Despite the apparent deadlock in armed clashes in eastern Ukraine, an idea to bringing together the presidents of Russia and Ukraine, together with their peers from Belarus and Kazakhstan as well as the leaders of France and Germany, gained momentum at the end of last week. Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev made an unscheduled visit to Berlin on Friday (January 9), seeking to persuade German Chancellor Angela Merkel that a summit in Astana on January 15 could make sense to break the Russian deadlock in the talks, and he then had a telephone conversation with President Vladimir Putin (Rossiiskaya Gazeta, Kremlin.ru, January 9, 2015). A day before that, Merkel held talks with Ukraine’s Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk and made a firm statement that the third package of sanctions on Russia could be lifted only after Moscow ensures the full implementation of all ceasefire provisions as agreed in Minsk in September 2014 (Newsru.com, January 8, 2015). The same position was taken by Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, who also mentioned some “positive signals” on changes in Russia’s position; but neither Merkel nor Mogherini expressed any interest in a summit (RIA Novosti, January 8, 2015).

The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, January 12.

This Week in South Sudan – Week 2

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Tuesday 6 January    South Sudan’s minority leader in parliament, Onyoti Adigo Nyikwak spoke out against the planned elections in June, saying it would enflame tensions and further divide the country. China pledged $33 million to improve South Sudan health care, the majority of the funds will be used to modernize the Juba Teaching Hospital…. Read more »

This Week in South Sudan 23-28 Dec. & Week 1

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Dec 23-28th Opinion piece in Radio Tamazuj by PRIO Global Fellow Luka Biong Deng: South Sudan: Who to arrest, detain, search and seize? US President, Barack Obama, announced on Dec 23rd that South Sudan will be dropped from the AGOA trade benefit program with US markets as of Jan 1st 2015. China’s UN Peacekeeping troop… Read more »

Russia Enters New Year Mired in Troubles

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Police forces driving protesters from the Manezhnaya square. Photo from BBC.com.

The post–New Year holidays in Russia have brought less joy or happy expectations than usual to the country’s elites, the urban middle classes and even to Russia’s millions of labor migrants. Over the past 15 years, all these groups shared in the country’s prosperity, which had grown steadily since President Boris Yeltsin resigned and made Vladimir Putin his successor. The crisis of 2008–2009 delivered only a short interruption to this increase in incomes and fortunes, though the mass protests in 2012 revealed growing discontent among liberal-minded “creative classes” in Moscow. The year 2014, on the other hand, began with optimistic anticipations of success focused on the Sochi Winter Olympics. The Games were, indeed, spectacular; but the serious escalation of the Ukraine crisis immediately after the Olympics’ Closing Ceremonies swiftly and profoundly altered Russia’s trajectory. Moscow’s aggressive actions against its western neighbor brought Russia into a sharp confrontation with the West, which has evolved into the current economic disaster (Kommersant, December 26, 2014).

The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, January 5 2015.

The Arctic comes into the new Russian military doctrine

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  The new military doctrine approved by President Putin on December 26, 2014 is actually not that new; Defense Minister Shoigu opted for limiting his mark to a few minor and symbolic revisions, against many far-reaching statements on the background of the Ukraine conflict. One of the changes that has attracted attention is the inclusion… Read more »

This Week in South Sudan – 15-22 Dec.

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Monday 15 December Foreign Policy article by Ban Ki-Moon calling on the South Sudanese leaders to show statesmanship and commitment to the peace negotiations. South Sudan marks first anniversary of civil war. Opinion piece by John Kerry and Susan Rice: South Sudan’s leaders need to set aside their dispute. One year into the South Sudanese… Read more »

Poor Research or What?

Posted by & filed under Conflict Patterns

A Norwegian political scientist published an article in the Norwegian daily Aftenposten on 17 December where he criticized the ‘waning-of-war’ argument promoted by, among others, Steven Pinker and ‘major parts of peace research’. Curiously, the article was published in the paper’s column for ‘dårlig forskning, flau formidling, kunnskapsløse politiske forslag og ren fusk’ (‘incompetent research, poor popularization, political proposals without a knowledge base, and sheer fraud’). The article does not explain which of these mortal sins were committed by Steven Pinker and the peace research crowd.Read More