It has become clear that the plan for establishing a super-ministry for the Arctic has been reduced to setting a government commission, which according to some lobbyists in the Duma, would put security first (Arctic-Info, February 11). Kommersant (February 6) reported that Dmitry Rogozin is approved as the head of this commission, and RIA-Novosti (6… Read more »
Ukraine takes Painful Hits – but Must Stay in the Fight
A pause is a feature of the “Hybrid war”. Photo from RBC.ru
President Vladimir Putin loves to play the “divide-and-deceive” game, imagining that every split between the United States and Europe or inside the European Union is an opportunity to corrupt Western policies, opinions, and values. It was high time to turn this game against him, and last week he indeed found himself on the receiving end of an elegant “deter-and-engage” combination. As NATO announced the decision to strengthen its Response Force and military presence in the Baltic area, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President François Hollande traveled to Moscow to impress upon President Vladimir Putin the urgent need to stop the escalation of hostilities in Eastern Ukraine. Merkel’s stern reflection that the talks made sense is likely a testimony that they didn’t, but it is remarkable that the five-hours-long exchange in the Kremlin (preceded and followed by phone conversations) happened against the background of lively debate in Washington on the issue of providing military aid to Ukraine.
For the rest of the post, see the Brookings blog, February 10.
Diplomacy Delivers Another Pause for Struggling Ukraine and Sinking Russia
In the fog of winter war in Ukraine.
The week of February 2 registered an explosion in political intrigue around the war in eastern Ukraine, and some sort of pause in hostilities is likely to ensue. Undoubtedly, this is a positive development, but it would be an overstatement to describe the late-night talks in the Kremlin between President Vladimir Putin and the two European envoys—German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Francois Hollande—as the “last chance” to stop the war. The five-hour talks concluded without any agreement or press conference. And during their brief photo-session, the three leaders wore their sternest facial expressions, demonstrating how hard it was to reach the compromise, which in fact had been pre-negotiated. Merkel and Hollande held several rounds of phone talks with Putin before hitting the road for their shuttle diplomacy, in which their first stop was Kyiv before proceeding to Moscow. That trip was followed up with another four-way phone conference on Sunday. The parties, indeed, need to show personal commitment to the deal, primarily to their respective domestic audiences. At the same time, they likely realize full well that this latest peace initiative has begun unraveling well before any signing ceremony could take place, if it happens at all.
The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, February 9.
This Week in South Sudan – Week 6
Monday 2 February At least five people were killed and seven others wounded when unknown gunmen attacked a village in Jalle payam in Jonglei’s Bor county. Abdalla Kuot, spokesperson for rebel fighters under the overall command of General Dau Aturjong, said the SPLA (IO) planned to intensify its recruitment efforts in and outside South Sudan… Read more »
Data Challenges in Conflict Research
Quality data is at the heart of quality research. The scholarly community depends on valid, reliable, and easily accessible data in order to empirically test our theories of social and political processes. Yet quantitative data is not “truth” in an absolute sense, but rather, is a numeric representation of complex phenomena. For conflict researchers, the challenge of collecting quality data is particularly acute given the nature of our enterprise.
A graph of the frequency and severity of violent incidents in Afghanistan. By Max Braun.
Given the costs and risks involved, it is practically impossible to observe every battle, civilian massacre, human rights violation, or protest event. Therefore, we often rely upon other sources — journalists, non-governmental organizations, truth commissions, and so on — to report on key features of a conflict, then turn such information into numeric values. Turning such reports into data isn’t a trivial task, but requires digesting large amounts of text, sorting through often-conflicting information, making judgments about coding rules, and dealing with ambiguous cases.
Recently, there have been a number of conversations in the conflict studies community about the challenge of collecting data that is accurate, replicable, and inter-operable with existing data. One such discussion occurred during a workshop held at the 2013 Annual Meeting of the International Studies Association in San Francisco, where several key figures from leading data collection projects were gathered. Some of the key concepts and ideas from that workshop were recently turned into a series of short articles, just published as a special feature of the Journal of Peace Research. In that special feature, scholars discuss their own experiences (good and bad) with collecting data, updates on current data projects, and practical tools for future data collection, all with an eye on common standards and best practices (for an exemplary discussion of best practices, see this paper by Christian Davenport and Will Moore).
Read more in the post at Political Violence @ A Glance.
Peacekeeping Works
An assessment of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations
The increase in the deployment of UN ‘blue helmets’ is a key driver of the gradual decline in the number and severity of armed conflicts worldwide since the mid-1990s. This brief summarizes a study that assesses the complete, long-term effectiveness of UN peacekeeping operations. It shows a remarkably strong combined effect of UN operations’ ability to contain the lethality of wars as well as preventing them from reerupting or spreading.
UN Peacekeepers in East Timor. Photo: Geoffrey C. Gunn. Licensed under CC BY 3.0 via Wikimedia Commons
The Effect of Proposed US Arms Supplies to Ukraine
A report published on Monday by the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution, and the Chicago Council on Global Affairs that calls for the US to supply Ukraine with arms has generated a lot of discussion on both sides of the Atlantic.
Image from the Rapid Trident 2014 training exercise which took place in Ukraine during September 2014 and involved troops from Ukraine, NATO members and other states.
Written by eight high ranking former US diplomats, defence and military personnel – Ivo Daalder, Michele Flournoy, John Herbst, Jan Lodal, Steven Pifer, James Stavridis, Strobe Talbott and Charles Wald – the report called for the supply by the USA of military equipment to Ukraine. Most of the equipment suggested is ‘non-lethal’, namely: radar that would identify the location of artillery being fired; secure communications equipment; unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs or drones) designed for reconnaissance; electronic jamming equipment to counter enemy UAVs; armoured Humvee vehicles; and medical equipment.
Always an Immigrant, Never Norwegian
Immigrants have become integrated into Norwegian society with degrees of success that range between two possible extremes: strong attachment and total alienation. In debates about integration, ethnicity and country of origin are often claimed to be the key factors for determining whether or not integration will be successful. Other important factors are seen as secondary. This contributes to the one-track nature of debates about integration.
Foto: Werner Anderson/Norwegian Peoples Aid. V`CC BY 2.0
The significance of time
Politicians, the media and researchers tend to focus on where a person “is from”. But in our research on migration – including in particular the relative strength of an immigrant’s sense of attachment to Norway versus his or her sense of attachment to people and places in other countries – we find that two other questions are just as relevant: “When did you come to Norway?”; and “How old were you when you arrived?” For one of our research projects we interviewed 67 people originating from 21 different countries, including Australia, Brazil, Iran, Pakistan, Poland and Sri Lanka. The interviewees had either come to Norway recently; during their childhood; or been born in Norway to two immigrant parents. Despite their very diverse national backgrounds, the interviewees had much in common when asked about their senses of belonging.Read More
Russia Makes Haste in Severing Ties with Europe
On the road in Eastern Ukraine (photo from Novaya gazeta).
Russia has achieved much success last week in its rush toward self-isolation, and perhaps the most demonstrative step was made in the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE). Sergei Naryshkin, the Chairman of the State Duma, came to Strasbourg as the head of the Russian delegation expecting to reach a compromise on the issue of restoring Russia’s full participation in this important pan-European forum. But he was so irked by the international body’s decision to prolong its sanctions against Russia (including the suspension of the right to vote) for another three months that he stormed out of the Palace of Europe and announced that his country would abstain from partaking in the PACE proceedings until the end of 2015.
The rest of the article is in Eurasia Daily Monitor, February 2.
This Week in South Sudan – Week 5
Monday 26 January Foreign Policy article ‘Inside the White House Fight over the slaughter in South Sudan’ focuses on the threat of an arms embargo and the slow pace of American diplomacy on South Sudan. South Sudan fighting grinds on, one year after the Cessation of Hostilities agreement was signed. Tuesday 27 January The UN… Read more »