Putin’s Nuclear Blackmail Goes Doctrinal

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced neither surprising nor radical revisions in Russia’s nuclear doctrine on September 25 (Kremlin.ru, September 25).

President Vladimir Putin in Moscow 25 September 2024. Photo: Getty Images

He committed to revising the government’s vague document back in June. In the ensuing months, many “patriotic” pundits have advocated various drastic changes, from formalizing the “escalate-to-deescalate” proposition to breaking the non-proliferation regime (see EDM, June 3; Kommersant, September 11).Read More

Spectre of Escalation Over the Ukraine War

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

The first striking sentence of the Communist Manifesto issued in 1848 – A spectre is haunting Europe – the spectre of communism – has long become a historical anecdote. Even the leftist fringe cherishes no illusions about the unity of the proletariat.

A different spectre, however, is looming over Europe – the spectre of nuclear escalation of the Ukraine War.

Illustration: GOCMEN / Getty Images

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Anti-Globalist Alliances?

Posted by and & filed under Governance, Regions and Powers

The far right and far left have partly overlapping views on issues of global economic cooperation. Why don’t they unite?

Electoral boards with posters from the parties ‘Reconquête’, ‘La France Insoumise (LFI)’, ‘Rassemblement National’, and ‘Les Ecologistes’ for the European Elections on May 28, 2024, in Lyon. Photo: Robert Deyrail / Getty Images

“We have moved from ‘we the workers’ to ‘we the French,’” said the French sociologist Didier Eribon to Libération recently, to explain the working class’s support for the populist party Rassemblement National in France in the context of the country’s parliamentary elections in June and July this year.Read More

Moscow Takes the Measure of Western Vacillations

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Security

Since the start of Russia’s war against Ukraine, the US-led Western coalition has demonstrated remarkable determination in supporting Kyiv. Yet, every practical step in providing military support to defiant Ukraine has involved protracted deliberations (Kuzio, “Crimea: Where Russia’s War Started and Where Ukraine Will Win,” July 8).

Putin greets Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

Moscow has sought to exploit and exacerbate these concerns but has been unable to derail coalitions formed for supplying Ukraine with Leopard main battle tanks or F-16 fighter jets.Read More

Is China Truly a Neutral Development Actor? 

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

China presents itself as a different kind of development actor compared to Western donors — more equal and with less imposition and interference in national affairs, based on the belief that economic development leads to peace. However, many doubt this is the case. A look at Pakistan shows that local conditions and conflicts challenge this neutrality.

Pakistani soldiers and Chinese staff during the opening of a trade project in Gwadar port, west of Karachi in 2016. This port was a key part of the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). Photo: Metin Aktas/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

Two contrasting images of China emerge: one of an aggressive superpower, allied with Russia and preparing for war, posing a threat to the world and NATO, and another as a peaceful actor supporting economic development and cooperation through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Read More

Putin Cannot Escape War in Ukraine Amid Travels to Far East

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

Russia’s ninth annual Eastern Economic Forum was held last week on September 3–6 in Vladivostok. It was intended to promote Moscow’s commitment to pivoting its economic policy toward the Asia-Pacific, but instead exposed the shortcomings of this ambition.

Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, September 2024. Photo: kremlin.ru

The Kremlin is not only demanding the redeployment of all combat-capable Russian units to the battlefields in Donbas for its war in Ukraine, but also is forced to sustain political efforts on withstanding Russia’s confrontation with the West.Read More

Putin Puts Forth Resolute Indifference to Kursk Debacle

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

The impact of Ukraine’s August 6 offensive operation into Kursk oblast remains an open strategic question following four weeks of increasingly intense and fluid fighting (see EDM, August 14, 15).

Ukrainian soldier on August 30, 2024 in Sudzha, Kursk Region, Russia. Photo: Oleg Palchyk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first reaction to this incursion was clearly misinformed by intelligence assessments portraying it as just another tactical raid.

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Community Initiatives to Mitigate Group Tensions: Reflections from Uganda

Posted by , and & filed under Humanitarianism, Migration, Regions and Powers

Forced displacement places increased pressure on host communities. Refugees are often hosted in resource-scarce areas with high unemployment and poverty. Local, national and international collaboration is therefore crucial to mitigate social conflict and prevent instability from traveling with those fleeing war.

Photo from fieldwork in the TRUST project at PRIO.

Uganda, with its progressive refugee policies, is often presented as a success story in the world of refugee management. Through the 2006 Refugee Act, refugees and asylum seekers in Uganda are given employment opportunities, freedom of movement and access to basic services. Read More

Prisoner Exchanges and the Prospects for Peace Talks

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Ukraine War

The timing of the unprecedented exchange of prisoners between Russia and the West on August 1 remains a difficult question.

The largest Russia-West prisoner exchange since the Cold War, which involved 24 individuals being freed. Photo by Omar Zaghloul/Anadolu via Getty Images

The final decision was most likely made in the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s red carpet reception of the released Russian spies along with an official honor guard leaves few in doubt of that (RBC, August 1).Read More