Putin Cannot Escape War in Ukraine Amid Travels to Far East

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

Russia’s ninth annual Eastern Economic Forum was held last week on September 3–6 in Vladivostok. It was intended to promote Moscow’s commitment to pivoting its economic policy toward the Asia-Pacific, but instead exposed the shortcomings of this ambition.

Putin at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, September 2024. Photo: kremlin.ru

The Kremlin is not only demanding the redeployment of all combat-capable Russian units to the battlefields in Donbas for its war in Ukraine, but also is forced to sustain political efforts on withstanding Russia’s confrontation with the West.Read More

Putin Puts Forth Resolute Indifference to Kursk Debacle

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

The impact of Ukraine’s August 6 offensive operation into Kursk oblast remains an open strategic question following four weeks of increasingly intense and fluid fighting (see EDM, August 14, 15).

Ukrainian soldier on August 30, 2024 in Sudzha, Kursk Region, Russia. Photo: Oleg Palchyk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s first reaction to this incursion was clearly misinformed by intelligence assessments portraying it as just another tactical raid.

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Community Initiatives to Mitigate Group Tensions: Reflections from Uganda

Posted by , and & filed under Humanitarianism, Migration, Regions and Powers

Forced displacement places increased pressure on host communities. Refugees are often hosted in resource-scarce areas with high unemployment and poverty. Local, national and international collaboration is therefore crucial to mitigate social conflict and prevent instability from traveling with those fleeing war.

Photo from fieldwork in the TRUST project at PRIO.

Uganda, with its progressive refugee policies, is often presented as a success story in the world of refugee management. Through the 2006 Refugee Act, refugees and asylum seekers in Uganda are given employment opportunities, freedom of movement and access to basic services. Read More

Prisoner Exchanges and the Prospects for Peace Talks

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Ukraine War

The timing of the unprecedented exchange of prisoners between Russia and the West on August 1 remains a difficult question.

The largest Russia-West prisoner exchange since the Cold War, which involved 24 individuals being freed. Photo by Omar Zaghloul/Anadolu via Getty Images

The final decision was most likely made in the Kremlin. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s red carpet reception of the released Russian spies along with an official honor guard leaves few in doubt of that (RBC, August 1).Read More

Victory for the Civilian Uprising in Bangladesh: What is Next for the ‘Second Independence’?

Posted by and & filed under Governance, Regions and Powers

It was an unprecedented and historic moment that unfolded in Bangladesh on 5 August 2024 when Prime Minister Sheik Hasina hastily fled the country in a military helicopter.

Protesters continue their demonstration for the abolition of the quota system in government jobs, on August 05, 2024 in Barishal, Bangladesh. Photo: Niamul Rifat/Anadolu via Getty Images

The protesters had demonstrated in the streets for several weeks, and that moment marked a ‘second independence’. This was not an independence from a foreign country or an external body. This was a liberation from the increasingly suffocating iron fist of Sheikh Hasina’s regime.

Can a democratic society now re-emerge from this totalitarian regime?Read More

Russian Intrigues in Middle East Surge

Posted by & filed under Middle East, Peacebuilding

On July 24, Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was summoned to Moscow for a secret meeting in the Kremlin with Russian President Vladimir Putin, the same day that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addressed a joint session of the US Congress.

Vladimir Putin meets Bashar Al-Assad in Sochi in 2018. Photo: Kremlin Press Office / Handout/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

The visit was announced only the following day when al-Assad was already back in Damascus, which was hardly a coincidence (Kommersant, July 25).Read More

Moscow Seeks to Drive ‘Peace’ Wedge into Trans-Atlantic Unity

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Security, Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin has not demonstrated any discernible change over the last few weeks in his maximalist stance on how to end his war in Ukraine.

Viktor Orban in Kyiv, Ukraine, on July 2, 2024 Photo: Maxym Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images.

Nevertheless, many other governments and organizations continue to propose ideas and initiatives for how to end this devastating conflict, though not all of these are conducive to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s proposal for organizing the second peace summit this November (Kommersant, July 17). Some pleas for an immediate ceasefire, like the letter from a group of Nobel Prize laureates calling for peace in both Ukraine and Gaza, come from sincere humanitarian concerns (Novaya gazeta, July 13). Other maneuvers are less magnanimous and more self-serving.

Still, Moscow is keen to channel every proposition toward its obsessive goal of eroding Western unity and undermining the pro-Ukraine coalition.Read More

Russia Seeks to Maintain Battlefield Initiative on Eve of NATO Summit

Posted by & filed under Security, Ukraine War

The ever-changing battlefield dynamics of Moscow’s war against Ukraine have made it impossible for predictions to be accurately tied to the political calendar. This unpredictability is particularly acute in the lead-up to one of the most critical events of 2024 — the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit in Washington on July 9–11.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks in Washington in June 2022. Photo: Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images

Recently, Russia’s war-making has included renewed efforts to increase pressure on Ukraine and thus foster discord between the transatlantic allies (see EDM, May 28, June 3, 10). Those efforts have been centered on the offensive operation in the Kharkiv direction, which gained some ground in the first couple of weeks but has now been exhausted and started to roll back.

Combat operations have reached an unstable equilibrium, granting NATO and its partners an opportunity to recalibrate their strategy for defeating Russia’s aggression calmly and carefully (Nezavisimaya Gazeta, June 26).Read More

Can High-Level Diplomacy Turn the Tide of the Ukraine War?

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Ukraine War

World politics in the first half of June is set to be enlivened not only by elections in such major powers as India, Mexico and South Africa, but also by a heavy concentration of international summits, conferences and visits.

Volodymyr Zelensky meets with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Manila, Philippines. Zelensky arrived in Manila following his speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Photo: Jam Sta Rosa – Pool/Getty Images

Agendas are rich and diverse, as many global issues demand collective action, but one 27-months old calamity continues to demand priority attention – the Ukraine War.

The high-intensity trench battles remain effectively deadlocked, but the political context of this long war keeps evolving, and the joint efforts of key world leaders as well as initiatives of smaller states may make a difference in deciding its outcome.Read More

Russia Attempts New Anti-Peace Offensive

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued reassurances of his readiness to negotiate an end to his war against Ukraine many times over the past 27 months, which Kyiv has duly rejected as attempts to pressure it to capitulate (see EDM, January 29, February 6, 26, April 15).

Meeting in the Russian cabinet in the Kremlin in May, 2024. Photo: Kremlin Press Office/Anadolu via Getty Images

A maneuver executed last week may, however, signify a change in Russia’s war strategy. Instead of yet another statement, the Kremlin orchestrated a series of “leaks” that were originally collected by the Reuters news agency.Read More