The Consequences of Internal Armed Conflict for Development (part 1)

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Child in a rebel camp in the north-eastern Central African Republic. Photo from Flickr.

War is a development issue. War kills, and its consequences extend far beyond deaths in battle. Armed conflict often leads to forced migration, long-term refugee problems, and the destruction of infrastructure. Social, political, and economic institutions can be permanently damaged. The consequences of war, especially civil war, for development are profound.

In this two-part post, we examine the development consequences of internal armed conflict. Part 1 focuses on how conflict affects development. Part 2 turns to the conflict trap and the post-2015 development agenda.

Development in reverse

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Apocalypse a Bit Later: The Meaning of Putin’s Nuclear Threats

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

The words that Russian President Vladimir Putin chose for describing the nuclear angle of the special operation for seizing and annexing Crimea in March 2014, might appear so odd that it is well-nigh impossible to make sense of them. “Yes, we were ready,” he said to the question about whether the option of putting strategic forces on high alert was considered. He then clarified that these forces were always on high readiness status. And when “some military experts” advised him to use all available means of deterrence, he said “No,” according to the propaganda documentary shown two weeks ago on Russian television.

Russian Topol-M intercontinental ballistic missile is displayed during a Victory Day parade rehearsal on April 24, 2009 in Alabino, outside Moscow, Russia. Photo: Dmitry Korotayev

The message is perhaps confusing, but regardless we should take Putin’s nuclear discourse very seriously. Broadly ignorant of how nuclear deterrence works, Putin and his cronies are both irresponsible and reckless when it comes to using nuclear threats for political purposes.

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The Secular Suicide Bomber

Posted by & filed under Religion

Is the all-consuming focus on Islam leading us to ignore the fact that suicide attacks have also been carried out by Christian, Hindu and secular martyrs?

Suicide attacks:  The group responsible for most suicide attacks during the period 1980-2001 was the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) in Sri Lanka. None of the LTTE soldiers were Muslims. This photo, by Thomas Haugersveen, is part of a 2009 series on the Tamil Tigers. The photo was also part of PRIO’s 2009 Anniversary photo competion/exhibition.

There can be no doubt that violent actions conducted in the name of Islam constitute a threat to state and individual security not only in Europe, but most of all in the Muslim world itself. The question, however, is whether the all-consuming focus on Islam is leading us to ignore the fact that suicide attacks have also been carried out by Christian, Hindu and secular martyrs. Such actions are motivated by politics, strategy and individual self-realization.Read More

Iranian Deal leaves Russia in Deeper Isolation

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Putin tries to make a clever face, and Rouhani doesn’t have to.

While Iran appears to be recognizing the need to reform its domestic politics and change its attitude toward the West, Russia is turning into a massively corrupt police state and is apparently thriving in the atmosphere of confrontation. The contrast between these two regimes has become strikingly sharp as nuclear negotiations approached the final stretch toward a binding agreement. Moscow still tries to present itself as a responsible stake-holder in the international system. But with every turn of the screw in the government’s repressions against members of the domestic opposition—stigmatized as “traitors” and “foreign agents”—Russia’s external behavior tends to turn erratic. Putin tries to maintain the appearance of confident statesmanship, but his subordinates remain eager to repeatedly violate international law because this law is after them. The survival of Putin’s Russia depends upon the inability of international institutions to deter its militarism and to punish aggression; and Moscow is set to discover which step along its path of “hybrid war” escalation will be the one too far.

This is the bottom line from the article in Eurasia Daily Monitor, April

This Week in South Sudan – Week 12  

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Monday 16 March Between 70 to 100 people estimated killed in Lakes State after clash between youths from Rumbek East and Rumbek Center. Tuesday 17 March Five dead in another inter-clan clash in Lakes state between youth from the Pakam community and Ruop in Rumbek Central. At least two people were shot dead, allegedly by… Read more »

An Uncertain Future in Afghanistan

Posted by & filed under Migration, Regions and Powers

Under the tripartite agreement entered into between Afghanistan, Norway and the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Afghans who are refused asylum in Norway have two choices:

  • either to take advantage of the assisted repatriation programme;
  • or to reject this offer and risk being forcibly deported and returned to Kabul almost empty handed.

In 2014 Norwegian authorities started forcible return of Afghan families. The Hashemi familiy was returned to Kabul in the autumn 2014. Photo: Sune E. Rasmussen

The two groups return home under very different circumstances.

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A Muted Voice? Religious Actors and Civil Society in Post-2001 Afghanistan

Posted by and & filed under Regions and Powers, Religion

In general, religious actors are not perceived as possible contributors to civil society. In Afghanistan, where religion permeates society and politics, and where religious leaders and networks bear considerable influence, this is particularly problematic. There is a need for a thorough rethink of what civil society is, and the role of religion within it. While knowledge is deficient in vital areas, what we do know merits a thorough reorientation of policy and practice.

Tribal and religious leaders in southern Afghanistan, 2010. Photo: Mark O’Donald

Religious actors are under double pressure. The Taliban, as the main armed opposition, see Islam as their main source of legitimacy. Religious leaders who express support for the government, or who declare their neutrality, are subject to pressure and, not infrequently, assassination. The government and their international allies, on the other hand, are deeply suspicious of religious authority, which they tend to associate with traditionalism and backwardness, if not with radical militancy. Given the immense politicization of religion in Afghanistan, both historically and during the last three decades of war, this is not surprising. But, Islam remains a strong force in Afghan society, and current policies tend to radicalize large parts of the religious leadership, hence strengthening the militant opposition.

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A Young and Fragile Time in Afghanistan

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

Afghanistan’s “youth boom” means that the country has a large generation of young people with high expectations for a better future – and high levels of frustration. Such a situation provides fertile ground for radicalization.

Boys in Badakhshan: do they have a brighter future? Photo: Norwegian Afghanistan Committee, 2013

Afghanistan’s population is estimated to have grown by as much as 2.4 per cent in 2014, and around 68 per cent of the total population is under 25 years of age. The absence of a strong and responsive state means that young Afghans’ prospects and quality of life are blighted by lack of security, poverty, drug dependency, lack of educational opportunities, and unemployment.

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Two Summits and a Military Exercise

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers

People are still coming to the Nemtsov bridge. Photo from Novaya gazeta.

While Putin may believe in his own infallibility, his courtiers have to persist in reassuring him about the fragility of Western unity. Just another push and a couple more bribes, they argue, will convince some North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) members that Narva or Spitsbergen are not worth fighting for, or to persuade some EU members that the sanctions regime is counter-productive. This split needs to be achieved in the coming weeks, in time for a summer offensive in eastern Ukraine toward Mariupol and Melitopol (opening the land corridor to Crimea) to be condoned at new (Minsk Three) summit—where France and Germany would be tasked with convincing Ukraine that peace has to be paid for with more concessions. This wishful strategizing is not without reason, and it is up to the EU to prove its capacity to stand together—and up to the United States to lead a successful Western rejection of Russia’s tactics of bullying and bluff. Deterring Putin’s Russia is a different and trickier task than containing the Soviet Union, but statesmanship will always prevail over scoundreldom.

This is the ending of the article published in Eurasia Daily Monitor, March 23.

How can Norway best Support Afghanistan?

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The current situation in Afghanistan is the subject of two opposing narratives: one is a success story about international support and involvement since 2001; the other is a story where much has gone wrong and everything can only get worse. Agreeing on a narrative that is closer to the truth is crucial when deciding what form Norwegian support and involvement should take in the future.

International forces have changed their focus from attacking Al-Qaeda and the Taliban to also rebuilding an Afghan army and police force: Afghan National Civil Order Police officers train for operations in Afghanistan. Photo: NATO, via Flickr

The lion’s share of international funding has so far been earmarked for security measures. Over time, the international forces have changed their focus from attacking Al-Qaeda and the Taliban to also rebuilding an Afghan army and police force. During 2014, responsibility for the military operations was gradually transferred to Afghan forces. Since the start of this transfer, there has been an increase in the number of Afghans killed, both among civilians and soldiers, and the number of desertions. The cost of running this army exceeds Afghanistan’s entire public revenues, making Afghanistan entirely dependent on international funding to maintain its army at current levels. Corruption is a huge problem, both in the army and the police, and numbers of soldiers and police officers are inflated, as are their food rations, in order to attract higher levels of funding. In addition, if actual soldiers and policemen become unemployed, they may represent a major security problem. Thus a limited international military presence, primarily in a mentoring role, may be important for national stability in Afghanistan – along with support for soldiers’ salaries.

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