The world is suffering from escalating levels of conflict. The Civil war in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the bombing of Gaza have all significantly contributed to dramatic increase in battle deaths in recent years. Moreover, 2023 witnessed the highest number of state-based conflicts – 59 – since 1946. While armed… Read more »
Category: Conflict Patterns
Can We Award a Prize for Peace in a World Full of War?
On Friday 11 October, we will find out the winner of this year’s Nobel Peace Prize. The announcement will take place against the background of full-scale wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as a record number of other conflicts around the world. Could the Nobel Committee decide that the situation is so… Read more »
More and More Children at Risk of Conflict
News reporting from around the world constantly and painfully reminds us about the heavy toll paid by children in current conflicts, such as in Ethiopia, Ukraine, and Gaza. In addition to being directly exposed to grave violations such as killing and maiming, recruitment by armed groups, sexual violence, abduction, attacks on schools and hospitals, and… Read more »
Bias in Economic Models Ignores the Impact of War in Poor Nations
New research shows that existing economic forecasting models vastly underestimate the impact of conflict on marginalized countries. National income for war-torn nations like Afghanistan, Niger and Yemen could be up to 50 to 70 per cent lower than existing estimates by the end of the century.
The Results of a Prediction Competition Suggest the Fog of War Can Be Partially Lifted
We may never be able to eradicate political violence like what is now seen in Ethiopia, or in the deaths and damage wrought around the Colombo region in Sri Lanka. As Plato noted, “Only the dead have seen the end of war”. But a more realistic goal may be within our grasp: if we can… Read more »
Fewer Children Affected by Conflict, but Conflict Intensity Is on the Rise
Today Save the Children launches its new report Stop the War on Children: The Forgotten Ones. The report is based on PRIO’s sixth annual mapping of children in armed conflict covering the period 1990-2021.
2021 – A Bad Year for World Peace
After a declining trend since 2014 for the number of people killed in armed conflict, approximately 84,000 people died last year. Since 2014, we have seen a global declining trend for the number of people killed in armed conflict, but in 2021 this trend experienced a sharp reversal. New figures from the Uppsala Conflict Data… Read more »
Staying Rather Than Leaving? Displacement and Conflict-Exposure in Ukraine
The Russian invasion of Ukraine on 24 February has led to rapid and large-scale displacement. What do we know about the dynamics of conflict and mobility in Ukraine, and how does conflict exposure impact people’s decisions to stay or to go? Drawing on new survey data from Ukraine, we shed light on how people are… Read more »
Why Widespread Sexual Violence Is Likely in Ukraine
Sexual violence has not received much attention in the coverage of the war in Ukraine. However, reports of cases of sexual violence by Russian or pro-Russian soldiers are just starting to appear. Some human rights organizations in Ukraine have already warned about this risk. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba recently claimed that Russian soldiers have committed… Read more »
How Did Europe Get into This Predicament? We Must Look in Our Own Backyard
It’s easy to condemn the opposing party in a polarized situation. But it’s more difficult to exercise self-criticism. It’s easy to condemn the opposing party in a polarized situation. Particularly when there are good reasons for such condemnation, as in the current situation. It’s easy to state that Russia’s lust for power and its violation… Read more »