Soldiers, refugees, victims, mothers: we must listen to stories about the women’s war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian female sergeant being awarded an order. Photo: President of Ukraine’s office
Five weeks have passed since the start of the war in Ukraine. Shocking images dominate television news broadcasts. Europe is experiencing its largest refugee crisis since World War II. Men aged between 18 and 60 have to stay in Ukraine, while women, children and the elderly flee.Read More
We can be pretty sure that the likelihood of both a coup and a revolution in Russia is significantly higher today than it was a couple of months ago.
Photo: DimitroSevastopol / Pixabay
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like becoming a historic event with far-reaching consequences.
Alongside the loss of human life and devastation in Ukraine, the Russian economy is declining at full speed, world market prices of important raw materials are rising and the European Union is demonstrating renewed vigour and ability to interact, among other things.
Could the invasion lead to yet another historic consequence, namely Putin’s fall from power?Read More
Вторжение в Украину, похоже, идет не совсем по плану Кремля. Как и во время Второй чеченской войны, российские войска прибегли к террору в отношении мирных граждан, надеясь, что украинцы сложат оружие. Террор принимает различные формы – от бомбардировок жилых домов до расстрелов эскадронами смерти.
Но достигнет ли подобное насилие намеченной цели или—напротив—укрепит готовность украинцев к сопротивлению?
Фото:: Мурал в Киеве. Фото: Димитер Тошков
Чтобы ответить на этот вопрос, мы опросили более 1000 украинцев посредством онлайн-опроса в течение третьей недели войны с тем, чтобы сформировать репрезентативную выборку городского населения (подробности об опросе приведены в конце этого поста).
Сначала мы попросили респондентов сообщить, как часто они, члены их семей или близкие друзья и знакомые подвергались прямым нападениям со стороны российских или пророссийских сил (с применением огнестрельного, артиллерийского или другого оружия) в период с 24 февраля 2022 г. по дату опроса. Краткий итог ответов: 20% опрошенных сообщили, что подверглись нападению как минимум один раз, 36% сообщили о нападениях на свою семью или близких друзей, а 59% — о нападениях на знакомых.Read More
For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv.
Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu inexplicably disappeared from the Russian public space last week. Photo: Russian Ministry of Defense
The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what the ostracized Russian leadership will do in this unwinnable situation.Read More
Inviting more women to brief the United Nations Security Council helps include them in decision-making on international peace and security. But despite progress, challenges remain. The Council must integrate recommendations from women’s voices into Council decisions.
Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka leaving office as the executive director of UN Women in 2021. Photo: ITU Pictures / Flickr / cc-by-2.0
As the struggle over existing norms in multilateral systems has hardened, women’s rights have become a battleground in the UN Security Council (UNSC). In terms of influence and of symbolism, who is allowed to brief the Council can be considered an indicator of women’s inclusion in decisions on international peace and security. Briefing the UNSC is by invitation only.
Therefore, this is a situation in which the state holding the monthly rotating Presidency plays a clear role in promoting more balanced and nuanced representation.
One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains.
Putin celebrating the anniversary of Crimea’s reunification with Russia. Moscow, March 2022.
Photo: The Russian Presidential Press and Information Office
The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure of their business activities over the weekend (Kommersant, March 19).
In contrast, the cyber-domain, where disruptive attacks and counter-attacks were expected, has remained remarkably quiet.
Cultural ties have been severed and Russia is expelled from most international sports, but a diplomatic compromise has been reached in the Vienna talks on reconfiguring the nuclear deal with Iran, which can be finalized this week (Rosbalt, March 16).
Perhaps the most apparent discord has emerged between the deadlock in key military battlefields and the sequence of defeats for Russia’s policy, of which this war is supposed to be a continuation.Read More
Half of the nation states who chose not to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly’s extraordinary session on March 2nd were member states of the African Union (AU).
In the event, 25 of the AU’s 55 member states either abstained, did not vote, or voted against the resolution. This apparent split within the AU votes raises an intriguing question of why did the block fail to unite in condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Voting in the UN is generally motivated by perceived national interests. In this perspective blog, we will use a security standpoint to try to explain what those perceived interests may be.
The first Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi in Russia in 2019. Photo: Government of South Africa via Flickr. CC BY-ND 2.0
We shouldn’t think of African states as a bloc which will naturally step in line with entreaties from Western countries.Read More
The invasion of Ukraine does not seem to follow the Kremlin’s plan. Much the same way as in the Second Chechen War, the Russian forces turned to terrorizing ordinary citizens, hoping that Ukrainians will lay down their arms. The terror takes various forms, from bombing of apartment blocks to execution by death squads.
But will such coercion achieve its intended goal or—in fact—strengthen the willingness of Ukrainians to resist?
Mural in Kyiv. Photo: Dimiter Toshkov
To answer this question, we interviewed more than 1,000 Ukrainians via an online survey during the third week of the war, aiming to generate a representative sample of the urban population (details about the survey are provided at the end of this post).Read More
Виглядає, що вторгнення в Україну йде не за планом Кремля. Так само, як під час Другої чеченської війни, російські війська почали тероризувати мирних жителів, сподіваючись, що українці складуть зброю. Терор здійснюється у різних формах–від бомбардування житлових кварталів до розстрілів каральними загонами. Але чи досягне таке насильство своєї мети або ж насправді посилить опір українців?
Photo: Дімітар Тошков
Щоб відповісти на це запитання, ми опитали на третьому тижні війни методом онлайн-опитування понад 1000 українців, що забезпечує репрезентативну вибірку міського населення (опис дослідження наведено в кінці цієї публікації). Спочатку ми запитали респондентів, якою мірою вони, їх сім’я чи близькі друзі та знайомі зазнали нападів з боку російських чи проросійських сил (з використанням вогнепальної зброї, артилерії чи іншої зброї) у період з 24 лютого 2022 року до моменту інтерв’ю. Короткий підсумок відповідей: 20% опитаних повідомили, що зазнали нападу щонайменше один раз, 36% повідомили про напади на свою сім’ю або близьких друзів, 59% – про напади на знайомих.Read More
Russia’s war in Ukraine has been met with global condemnation drawing NATO and the EU closer together in coordinating collective responses.
In contrast to this coordinated front among US, French and German responses, it is worth drawing attention to the mixed regional responses among states in the Middle East for whom the war can have long-lasting destabilising effects.
Syrian protesters assemble in solidarity with Ukrainians under Russian attack. Photo: Alisdare Hickson via Flickr. CC BY-SA 2.0