Why Putin is Losing – The Weakness of Personalist Dictatorship

Posted by & filed under Governance, Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

When personalistic dictators go to war, they are more likely to miscalculate and lose than leaders of other types of regimes. Such failures can have dramatic consequences for the stability of their regime at home, as well as for the rest of the world.

Photo: kremlin.ru

Russia’s grotesque invasion of Ukraine is one of the most horrific acts of aggression seen in Europe since the Second World War. The invasion emphasizes the inherent institutional weaknesses of having a personalistic dictator such as Vladimir Putin in charge of decision-making.Read More

New Report by the IPCC: Climate Adaptation Is Happening Too Slowly

Posted by , , , , , and & filed under Urbanization and Environment

When the first part of the IPCC’s Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) was released last summer, the UN Secretary-General António Guterres declared “Code Red for humanity”. The report documented that climate change is more extensive and occurs more rapidly than previously assumed, and showed the urgency of reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

In this blog post, seven authors of the second part of the AR6, reflect on documented consequences of climate change and what is required to minimize future loss and damage.

Flooding in Gonaïves, Haiti after Hurricane Tomas in 2010. Informal, densely populated urban areas like this are among those most vulnerable to future climate change. PHOTO: UN/Marco Dormino CC-BY-NC-ND

The average temperature on Earth is now 1.1°C warmer than when industrialization began in around 1850, and the warming has been particularly great in the northernmost areas of the world. The rise in temperature and the associated melting of glaciers, sea-level rise, and increased incidence of extreme weather events are caused primarily by anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is now higher than at any time in the past two million years.Read More

Should Ukraine Have Kept Soviet Nuclear Weapons?

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

It is widely believed that Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons that it could have used to deter Russia from the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the war of aggression launched last month. This is problematic for several reasons.

Photo: Ministry of Defense of Ukraine / CC BY-SA 2.0

Russia is using nuclear threats in order to deter NATO and European countries from direct military engagement in the war in Ukraine. Last week, Russian forces this week attacked Ukraine’s largest nuclear power plant. The Russian nuclear threat poses an important challenge for European and international security.

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Putin Keeps Losing All the Wars He Has Started

Posted by & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

The word “war” is presently banned in the official Russian discourse on Ukraine, but in fact the “special military operation” launched on President Vladimir Putin’s order early morning February 24, includes several wars fought in different domains.

Putin with military leaders. Photo: Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons

The massive invasion into Ukraine constitutes the most kinetic of them, but on the highest level Putin imagines a multi-dimensional set of contestations with the USA, NATO and the EU for reshaping the European and even global security order (Russian International Affairs Council, March 2).

This inflamed ambition has overruled all remotely realistic assessments of own strength and the enemy’s weaknesses, so none of the fast-moving wars is going well for Russia.Read More

Will Taiwan Be the Next Ukraine?

Posted by and & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

“Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” This warning rings through Taiwanese social media.

“We should not allow this problem to be passed down from one generation to the next,” said Xi Jinping in 2019 about the political differences between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The annual report from the Chinese government that was issued on 5 March 2022, said China is committed to “resolving the Taiwan question in the new era. The “new era” is normally understood as the time of President Xi.

Photo: Mario Tama/AFP/NTB

Still, fortunately, we have not seen open signs that China is preparing itself to invade.Read More

Putin, Xi, and World War III

Posted by and & filed under Regions and Powers, Ukraine War

Vladimir Putin is playing for high stakes against the US and its allies on the global scene. Since Xi Jinping does not play along, Putin has temporarily transformed a bipolar power system into a triangular game, with Xi in the middle. Yet Xi is the one that Biden fears most.

Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping in 2019. Photo: The Russian Presidential Press and Information Office

China does not have and does not want any military alliances. Its close relationship with Russia is therefore a strategic partnership. This partnership has become closer and closer since Xi took the helm as China’s leader in 2012.Read More

Children Born of War Should be More Than an Afterthought

Posted by , , , , and & filed under Civilians in Conflict, Gender

A recent UN report published by the Secretary General in late January is one of the first to focus exclusively on women and girls who become pregnant as a result of sexual violence in conflict and on children born of war.

The term ‘children born of war’ refers to children born to civilians and enemy soldiers during and after armed conflict.

Women’s shelter for victims of sexual abuse in Goma, Democratic Republic of the Congo. UN Photo/Marie Frechon

Most often, they are born to local mothers and fathered by men directly involved in the conflict as enemy soldiers, members of paramilitary groups, or peacekeeping troops. Children born of war can be conceived both in conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) and consensual relationships, including love relationships.Read More

Ukraine as an Instance of State Repression

Posted by & filed under Governance, Ukraine War

The crisis in Ukraine reveals some distinct opinions about how the world is viewed. Most accurately, people see Russia as distinct from Ukraine, in which case what is taking place would be best evaluated as interstate war. Putin and his supporters, however, seem to see things in a different way.

On the one hand, they seem to view Ukraine as a distinct part of Russia, in which case what is taking place would be best evaluated as state repression. Here, a part of the “real” nation has acted in a threatening manner and the “true” political authority is attempting to put down and re-establish dominance.

On the other hand, clearly contradicting the position above, Putin and his supporters have occasionally yielded that Ukraine is a separate nation but noted that they are engaging in behavior that threatens Russians in their midst: genocide.

“We will need to see how much repression will be used against the behavioral challengers in Russia”. Slogan from Moscow in 2014: “Occupation of the Crimea is a shame of Russia”. Wikimedia Commons

Norms against invading other countries are strong and longstanding, so there is perhaps no other justification for moving into another nation than to save its occupants from large-scale, violent, state-sponsored repression.Read More

Forced Displacement from Ukraine: Notes on Humanitarian Protection and Durable Solutions

Posted by and & filed under Humanitarianism, Law and Ethics, Ukraine War

The Russian invasion of Ukraine February 24 2022 marks the start of a new displacement crisis.

UZHHOROD, UKRAINE – FEBRUARY 27, 2022 – Refugees crowd at the Uzhhorod-Vysne Nemecke checkpoint on the Ukraine-Slovakia border, Zakarpattia Region, western Ukraine. Photo: Ukrinform

In a statement on February 24, Filippo Grandi, the High Commissioner for Refugees, emphasized that ‘The humanitarian consequences on civilian populations will be devastating. There are no winners in war, but countless lives will be torn apart. We have already seen reports of casualties and people starting to flee their homes to seek safety’. UN officials estimate up to 4 million people could leave Ukraine if the situation deteriorates. As of March 4, 1.2 million people had fled Ukraine to other countries in the region.Read More

India on Russia-Ukraine: History, Pragmatism and the Dilemmas Therein

Posted by , and & filed under Regions and Powers, Security, Ukraine War

India’s decision to consistently remain ‘neutral’ when voting on resolutions on the Ukraine crisis in multilateral fora might not come as a surprise to those who follow Indian foreign policy closely and know its history. India’s decision to abstain from voting in each and every multilateral fora has, nonetheless, raised eyebrows among security analysts who see India’s ‘neutrality’ as a pro-Russia stance.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi welcomes President Vladimir Putin to the 21st India-Russia Annual Summit, December 2021. Credit: Government of India, Ministry of External Affairs

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