Putin’s place at the long table in the Kremlin is more insecure than ever, and even though he will cling to power, it is not inevitable that he will succeed. Fears that the so-called colour revolutions will spread to Russia have dogged Putin’s time in power. Colour revolutions in two of Russia’s neighbours, Georgia and… Read more »
Tag: Putin
Putin May Fall
We can be pretty sure that the likelihood of both a coup and a revolution in Russia is significantly higher today than it was a couple of months ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like becoming a historic event with far-reaching consequences. Alongside the loss of human life and devastation in Ukraine, the Russian economy… Read more »
Stalled Military Offensive and Unfolding Political Defeat for Russia in Ukraine
One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure of their business activities over… Read more »
Why Putin is Losing – The Weakness of Personalist Dictatorship
When personalistic dictators go to war, they are more likely to miscalculate and lose than leaders of other types of regimes. Such failures can have dramatic consequences for the stability of their regime at home, as well as for the rest of the world. Russia’s grotesque invasion of Ukraine is one of the most horrific… Read more »
Putin Keeps Losing All the Wars He Has Started
The word “war” is presently banned in the official Russian discourse on Ukraine, but in fact the “special military operation” launched on President Vladimir Putin’s order early morning February 24, includes several wars fought in different domains. The massive invasion into Ukraine constitutes the most kinetic of them, but on the highest level Putin imagines… Read more »
Putin, Xi, and World War III
Vladimir Putin is playing for high stakes against the US and its allies on the global scene. Since Xi Jinping does not play along, Putin has temporarily transformed a bipolar power system into a triangular game, with Xi in the middle. Yet Xi is the one that Biden fears most. China does not have and… Read more »
Turkey’s Difficult Balancing Act in the Ukraine Crisis
It’s not difficult to imagine Turkey’s President Erdogan watching Putin’s failures in Ukraine with a solid dose of schadenfreude. Putin has been the kingmaker in Syria since 2015 and Erdogan, not one for compromise, has had to negotiate with Putin to secure Turkey’s interests. The most critical of these has been Turkey’s opposition to Kurdish… Read more »
Russia Has Violated the Fundamental Rules of International Law. What Are the Consequences?
Vladimir Putin’s speech on 24 February was not only a formal announcement of his invasion of Ukraine, but also a defence of this use of force under international law. The fact that Russia is relying on international law is no surprise – Russia has always done so. The question is whether its arguments have any… Read more »
Putin’s War Is Stuck, Beware the Rising Risks
Data on the concentration of Russian troops was solid; the diplomatic offensive executed by Moscow was deliberately disagreeable; yet, many experts (myself including) refused to accept the proposition on the coming war as “inevitable”. Denials streaming from the Kremlin were never convincing, but President Vladimir Putin’s reputation as a shrewd pragmatist still clashed with the… Read more »
We Shouldn’t Be Surprised by Putin’s Invasion
The wheel of history is now in motion. Russia’s gruesome attack on Ukraine disrupts one of the most significant trends in the history of nation states, namely the astounding absence of large-scale wars of invasion and occupation in Europe since the end of World War II. For many years, peace researchers have pointed out that… Read more »