For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what the ostracized Russian leadership will… Read more »
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Stalled Military Offensive and Unfolding Political Defeat for Russia in Ukraine
One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure of their business activities over… Read more »
Security Logics of Africa’s Divided Position on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine
Half of the nation states who chose not to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly’s extraordinary session on March 2nd were member states of the African Union (AU). In the event, 25 of the AU’s 55 member states either abstained, did not vote, or voted against the resolution. This apparent… Read more »
Will Terror Deter or Motivate Ukrainian Resistance? Survey Evidence from Besieged Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine does not seem to follow the Kremlin’s plan. Much the same way as in the Second Chechen War, the Russian forces turned to terrorizing ordinary citizens, hoping that Ukrainians will lay down their arms. The terror takes various forms, from bombing of apartment blocks to execution by death squads. But will… Read more »
Transactional Engagements: Middle Eastern Responses to the Ukrainian War
Russia’s war in Ukraine has been met with global condemnation drawing NATO and the EU closer together in coordinating collective responses. In contrast to this coordinated front among US, French and German responses, it is worth drawing attention to the mixed regional responses among states in the Middle East for whom the war can have… Read more »
Climate Policy Must Be Inclusive to Be Successful
Climate justice is essential if we are to succeed in preventing global warming of 1.5 to 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels. This is a point that receives far greater attention in the new Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report than in previous reports. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published… Read more »
The new Great Patriotic War
Leaders in both Ukraine and Russia are making ammunition out of the Soviet Union’s wartime history. Who are the fascists this time? It is both painful and strange to see photographs of Ukrainian civilians signing up for military service in the war against the Russians. Some of the volunteers are disturbingly young, their protective gear… Read more »
In Autocracies, a Little Media Freedom Can Go a Long Way
Mobilization in autocracies is inherently difficult. Potential dissidents face several hurdles, even when grievances are widespread and a regime is unpopular. Participating in dissent is dangerous and leaves individuals at risk of repression by state security forces. Safety in numbers is possible if others also mobilize, but in autocracies people often lack information about what… Read more »
Arms and Influence in Ukraine
The supply of weapons and other military equipment has been one of two main responses by Western States to the invasion of Ukraine (the other being economic sanctions). Compared to direct deployment of military forces, arms supplies are often seen as relatively uncomplicated and low cost means to assist a friendly or allied state. Nevertheless,… Read more »
The Digital Battlefield
Photos, stories and videos featuring victims of the war in Ukraine are spreading all over the world on social media. This will change our perception of war. So far, cyber attacks and cyber operations have played a smaller role than expected in the warfare in Ukraine, social media on the other hand, have been more… Read more »