Climate, Crop, and Conflict: a matter of space?

Posted by & filed under Urbanization and Environment

Anthropogenic climate change poses unprecedented threats to socio-ecological systems, affecting the lives of millions of people around the world. Among others, global warming has resulted in an increased frequency, intensity and duration of extremes, such as heatwaves, droughts and heavy precipitations. Climate-related impacts include alteration of ecosystems, disruption of food production and water supply, damage to infrastructure and settlements, increased morbidity and mortality, and potential implications for mental health and human well-being.

Figure 1″Refugees from South Sudan in El Daein, East Darfur” by UNAMID Photo.

Read More

Parliamentary Election in Kosovo: Democratic Development and Desire for Change

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding, Regions and Powers

View from Vetëvendosje’s protest in Mitrovica against deals with Serbia. Photo: AgronBeqiri via Wikimedia Commons

Less than a year after the fall of the Kosovo government led by left-wing reformist party Vetëvendosje (“Self-Determination”), the same party has returned to power. Following a landslide victory in the parliamentary election last Sunday, Vetëvendosje is set to form a government with a markedly stronger mandate than the first time around. The election outcome marks a power shift from an old political elite to a younger generation of politicians with a progressive vision, a positive development in the Western Balkans. Moreover, it signals that it is time for the EU and US to set a new direction for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue.

Read More

72 Million Children Are at Risk for Sexual Violence in Conflict. What Can Be Done?

Posted by , , , and & filed under Civilians in Conflict, Gender

A staggering 72 million children—17% of the 426 million children living in conflict areas globally, or 1 in 6—are living near armed groups that have been reported to perpetrate sexual violence against children.

That means 3% of all children in the world are living at risk for sexual violence in a conflict zone.

Photo: Fredrik Lerneryd/Save the Children

This is one of the figures of wartime risk reported in Save the Children’s 2021 report Weapon of War: Sexual Violence Against Children in Conflict. The figure is based on a new study conducted at the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO).

Read More

Can we avoid conflict relapse? Some lessons from Haiti’s 2004, 2016 and 2021 crises

Posted by & filed under Peacebuilding

Over recent years few countries have made significant progress toward sustaining peace. It is important to better understand what works and what does not in conflict-affected countries. Here I will present a summary of my research on peace-building efforts in Haiti throughout the period 2004-2015, as well as some additional considerations of the political crisis of 2016 and ongoing crises since.

UN/MINUSTAH/Jesús Serrano Redondo, CC BY-SA 4.0

Read More

Nordic Noir: National Risk Assessments in Times of Peace and Pandemics

Posted by & filed under Beyond the COVID Curve

As a result of their criteria for what counts as risks, the national risk assessments of the Nordic countries currently resemble the crime genre of Nordic Noir, where the Nordic societies are rendered in a gloomy but revealing light. By zooming in on potential crises without placing these in a global or long-term perspective, they leave a bleak impression of the Nordic security environment. At the same time, they are insightful depictions of security risks that are not commonly recognised.

Read More

In 2016, I identified four future developments that would justify the Trump-Hitler comparison. Here are the results.

Posted by & filed under Governance, Security

In 2016, comparing president-elect Donald Trump to all-time villain Adolf Hitler seemed overdrawn. It ultimately proved to be exaggerated in 2021, with the transition of power to Joe Biden completed. However, during his presidency, Trump has taken actions similar to the ones the Nazis used to consolidate their power. This is no partisan political statement, but the result of a simple test.

Before Trump took office, I published an analysis of the Trump-Hitler comparison on the Monkey Cage blog of the Washington Post. I pointed to four areas where Trump could copy key moves of power consolidation pioneered by the German Nazis. Then, I kept quiet on the matter for four years. History has delivered the results. Let’s take a look.

Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 2.0

Read More

Facebook’s Power in Myanmar

Posted by & filed under Media, Regions and Powers

Facebook is Myanmar’s dominant media platform. Now the country is again a dictatorship. In 2018, Facebook banned commander-in-chief Min Aung Hlaing for his role in the expulsion of the Rohingya. Now, as the country’s new dictator, he temporarily shuts down Facebook.

Aung San Suu Kyi (left), Min Aung Hlaing (right). Photo: Wikimedia Commons

Myanmar’s many conflicts have given Facebook director Mark Zuckerberg one headache after another. He and his regional boss in Singapore have been forced to take a number of tough decisions. After the February 1stcoup, Facebook staff were instructed to use all their tools to remove disinformation and incitement to violence – and protect criticism of the military coup. Myanmar’s new dictator, Min Aung Hlaing, reacted by shutting down Facebook temporarily until the night between February 7th an 8th.Read More

Can We Predict Civil War?

Posted by , and & filed under Conflict Patterns

Since 2010, almost 700,000 people have been killed as the direct result of warfare. But war kills and injures far more people than those who die directly on the battlefield. War destroys health systems, increases infant mortality, reduces life expectancy, increases poverty, and deprives children of education.

World War 1. Gurkhas charging a trench.Photographer: H. D. Girdwood. British Library on Unsplash.

Read More

The Politics of Refugee Relief: UNRWA and the Ongoing Funding Crisis

Posted by and & filed under Humanitarianism

On 9 November 2020 Philippe Lazzarini, the Commissioner General of UNRWA, tweeted: “I am pained to announce that despite all efforts to raise the resources for @UNRWA 2020, I informed our 28,000 staff that we do not have enough funds to pay their salaries in full this month”. This is a desperate situation for the Agency serving 5,7 million Palestinian refugees in Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, West Bank and Gaza. How will restored aid levels under the Biden administration affect the organisation, and what is the wider context of international aid to UNRWA?

Jenin camp 2009, Kjersti G. Berg

Read More