Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if the initial “Blitzkrieg” design was based on the assumption that the Ukrainian military would… Read more »
Tag: Ukraine War
Different Responses to Mobility at Europe’s Borders
In the weeks since Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine significant proportions of Ukraine’s population has gone on the move, the majority of whom are internally displaced. By 29th March 2022, 4 million people had fled Ukraine across borders to neighbouring countries: Poland (2 million in 3 weeks), Slovakia, Hungary, Romania and Moldova (some reportedly to… Read more »
A Pope’s Dilemma
Pope Francis has condemned the war in Ukraine in strong words. He dismisses the assertion of Putin’s propaganda that it merely involves “military operations,” and instead condemns it as a war that causes “death, destruction, and distress.” But as head of the Catholic church and its diplomatic arm the “Holy See,” he has not confronted… Read more »
Putin’s First Assertive Move On the Energy Front Goes Astray
Combat operations on all key fronts of the Ukraine war continue non-stop, even if without decisive action, but the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline system continues without interruptions. This may appear aberrant given President Vladimir Putin’s well-documented propensity for “weaponizing” energy exports against European customers, most crudely during the… Read more »
A Popular Uprising Can Oust Putin
Putin’s place at the long table in the Kremlin is more insecure than ever, and even though he will cling to power, it is not inevitable that he will succeed. Fears that the so-called colour revolutions will spread to Russia have dogged Putin’s time in power. Colour revolutions in two of Russia’s neighbours, Georgia and… Read more »
Women’s War
Soldiers, refugees, victims, mothers: we must listen to stories about the women’s war in Ukraine. Five weeks have passed since the start of the war in Ukraine. Shocking images dominate television news broadcasts. Europe is experiencing its largest refugee crisis since World War II. Men aged between 18 and 60 have to stay in Ukraine,… Read more »
Putin May Fall
We can be pretty sure that the likelihood of both a coup and a revolution in Russia is significantly higher today than it was a couple of months ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like becoming a historic event with far-reaching consequences. Alongside the loss of human life and devastation in Ukraine, the Russian economy… Read more »
Как влияет террор на украинское сопротивление – сдерживает или усиливает? Данные опроса из осажденной Украины
Вторжение в Украину, похоже, идет не совсем по плану Кремля. Как и во время Второй чеченской войны, российские войска прибегли к террору в отношении мирных граждан, надеясь, что украинцы сложат оружие. Террор принимает различные формы – от бомбардировок жилых домов до расстрелов эскадронами смерти. Но достигнет ли подобное насилие намеченной цели или—напротив—укрепит готовность украинцев к… Read more »
Russia’s Strategic Confusion in Ukraine Deepens and Widens
For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what the ostracized Russian leadership will… Read more »
Stalled Military Offensive and Unfolding Political Defeat for Russia in Ukraine
One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure of their business activities over… Read more »