Tag: Ukraine War

Stalled Military Offensive and Unfolding Political Defeat for Russia in Ukraine

One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure of their business activities over… Read more »

Security Logics of Africa’s Divided Position on Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine

Half of the nation states who chose not to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly’s extraordinary session on March 2nd were member states of the African Union (AU). In the event, 25 of the AU’s 55 member states either abstained, did not vote, or voted against the resolution. This apparent… Read more »

Will Terror Deter or Motivate Ukrainian Resistance? Survey Evidence from Besieged Ukraine

The invasion of Ukraine does not seem to follow the Kremlin’s plan. Much the same way as in the Second Chechen War, the Russian forces turned to terrorizing ordinary citizens, hoping that Ukrainians will lay down their arms. The terror takes various forms, from bombing of apartment blocks to execution by death squads. But will… Read more »

Чи терор стримуватиме чи спонукатиме українців до опору? Дані опитування в обложеній Україні

Виглядає, що вторгнення в Україну йде не за планом Кремля. Так само, як під час Другої чеченської війни, російські війська почали тероризувати мирних жителів, сподіваючись, що українці складуть зброю. Терор здійснюється у різних формах–від бомбардування житлових кварталів до розстрілів каральними загонами. Але чи досягне таке насильство своєї мети або ж насправді посилить опір українців? Цей… Read more »

Transactional Engagements: Middle Eastern Responses to the Ukrainian War

Russia’s war in Ukraine has been met with global condemnation drawing NATO and the EU closer together in coordinating collective responses. In contrast to this coordinated front among US, French and German responses, it is worth drawing attention to the mixed regional responses among states in the Middle East for whom the war can have… Read more »

The new Great Patriotic War

Leaders in both Ukraine and Russia are making ammunition out of the Soviet Union’s wartime history. Who are the fascists this time? It is both painful and strange to see photographs of Ukrainian civilians signing up for military service in the war against the Russians. Some of the volunteers are disturbingly young, their protective gear… Read more »

In Autocracies, a Little Media Freedom Can Go a Long Way

Mobilization in autocracies is inherently difficult. Potential dissidents face several hurdles, even when grievances are widespread and a regime is unpopular. Participating in dissent is dangerous and leaves individuals at risk of repression by state security forces. Safety in numbers is possible if others also mobilize, but in autocracies people often lack information about what… Read more »

Arms and Influence in Ukraine

The supply of weapons and other military equipment has been one of two main responses by Western States to the invasion of Ukraine (the other being economic sanctions). Compared to direct deployment of military forces, arms supplies are often seen as relatively uncomplicated and low cost means to assist a friendly or allied state. Nevertheless,… Read more »

Will the Russian-Ukrainian War Resonate in Syria?

The predictable and yet shockingly brutal Russian invasion into Ukraine on 24 February 2022 has in the course of three weeks sent many tremors across the world system. Major stock markets experience strong corrections, oil prices register new highs, importers of wheat and sunflower oil are nervously checking their stocks, but one place that hasn’t… Read more »