Tag: Ukraine War

Why Putin is Losing – The Weakness of Personalist Dictatorship

When personalistic dictators go to war, they are more likely to miscalculate and lose than leaders of other types of regimes. Such failures can have dramatic consequences for the stability of their regime at home, as well as for the rest of the world. Russia’s grotesque invasion of Ukraine is one of the most horrific… Read more »

Should Ukraine Have Kept Soviet Nuclear Weapons?

It is widely believed that Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons that it could have used to deter Russia from the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the war of aggression launched last month. This is problematic for several reasons. Russia is using nuclear threats in order to deter NATO and European countries from direct military… Read more »

Putin Keeps Losing All the Wars He Has Started

The word “war” is presently banned in the official Russian discourse on Ukraine, but in fact the “special military operation” launched on President Vladimir Putin’s order early morning February 24, includes several wars fought in different domains. The massive invasion into Ukraine constitutes the most kinetic of them, but on the highest level Putin imagines… Read more »

Will Taiwan Be the Next Ukraine?

“Ukraine today, Taiwan tomorrow.” This warning rings through Taiwanese social media. “We should not allow this problem to be passed down from one generation to the next,” said Xi Jinping in 2019 about the political differences between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. The annual report from the Chinese government that was issued on… Read more »

Putin, Xi, and World War III

Vladimir Putin is playing for high stakes against the US and its allies on the global scene. Since Xi Jinping does not play along, Putin has temporarily transformed a bipolar power system into a triangular game, with Xi in the middle. Yet Xi is the one that Biden fears most. China does not have and… Read more »

Ukraine as an Instance of State Repression

The crisis in Ukraine reveals some distinct opinions about how the world is viewed. Most accurately, people see Russia as distinct from Ukraine, in which case what is taking place would be best evaluated as interstate war. Putin and his supporters, however, seem to see things in a different way. On the one hand, they… Read more »

Forced Displacement from Ukraine: Notes on Humanitarian Protection and Durable Solutions

The Russian invasion of Ukraine February 24 2022 marks the start of a new displacement crisis. In a statement on February 24, Filippo Grandi, the High Commissioner for Refugees, emphasized that ‘The humanitarian consequences on civilian populations will be devastating. There are no winners in war, but countless lives will be torn apart. We have… Read more »

India on Russia-Ukraine: History, Pragmatism and the Dilemmas Therein

India’s decision to consistently remain ‘neutral’ when voting on resolutions on the Ukraine crisis in multilateral fora might not come as a surprise to those who follow Indian foreign policy closely and know its history. India’s decision to abstain from voting in each and every multilateral fora has, nonetheless, raised eyebrows among security analysts who… Read more »

Turkey’s Difficult Balancing Act in the Ukraine Crisis

It’s not difficult to imagine Turkey’s President Erdogan watching Putin’s failures in Ukraine with a solid dose of schadenfreude. Putin has been the kingmaker in Syria since 2015 and Erdogan, not one for compromise, has had to negotiate with Putin to secure Turkey’s interests. The most critical of these has been Turkey’s opposition to Kurdish… Read more »

Russia Has Violated the Fundamental Rules of International Law. What Are the Consequences?

Vladimir Putin’s speech on 24 February was not only a formal announcement of his invasion of Ukraine, but also a defence of this use of force under international law. The fact that Russia is relying on international law is no surprise – Russia has always done so. The question is whether its arguments have any… Read more »