Combat operations on all key fronts of the Ukraine war continue non-stop, even if without decisive action, but the transit of Russian natural gas to Europe through the Ukrainian pipeline system continues without interruptions. This may appear aberrant given President Vladimir Putin’s well-documented propensity for “weaponizing” energy exports against European customers, most crudely during the… Read more »
Tag: Ukraine
Putin May Fall
We can be pretty sure that the likelihood of both a coup and a revolution in Russia is significantly higher today than it was a couple of months ago. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looks like becoming a historic event with far-reaching consequences. Alongside the loss of human life and devastation in Ukraine, the Russian economy… Read more »
Как влияет террор на украинское сопротивление – сдерживает или усиливает? Данные опроса из осажденной Украины
Вторжение в Украину, похоже, идет не совсем по плану Кремля. Как и во время Второй чеченской войны, российские войска прибегли к террору в отношении мирных граждан, надеясь, что украинцы сложат оружие. Террор принимает различные формы – от бомбардировок жилых домов до расстрелов эскадронами смерти. Но достигнет ли подобное насилие намеченной цели или—напротив—укрепит готовность украинцев к… Read more »
Russia’s Strategic Confusion in Ukraine Deepens and Widens
For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what the ostracized Russian leadership will… Read more »
Stalled Military Offensive and Unfolding Political Defeat for Russia in Ukraine
One striking feature of Russia’s fast-evolving war against Ukraine is the highly uneven dynamics of escalation in its different domains. The economic pressure on Russia has reached the level of extra-high intensity and keeps growing daily, for instance, as Halliburton and Schlumberger, two major oilfields servicing companies, announced the closure of their business activities over… Read more »
Will Terror Deter or Motivate Ukrainian Resistance? Survey Evidence from Besieged Ukraine
The invasion of Ukraine does not seem to follow the Kremlin’s plan. Much the same way as in the Second Chechen War, the Russian forces turned to terrorizing ordinary citizens, hoping that Ukrainians will lay down their arms. The terror takes various forms, from bombing of apartment blocks to execution by death squads. But will… Read more »
Чи терор стримуватиме чи спонукатиме українців до опору? Дані опитування в обложеній Україні
Виглядає, що вторгнення в Україну йде не за планом Кремля. Так само, як під час Другої чеченської війни, російські війська почали тероризувати мирних жителів, сподіваючись, що українці складуть зброю. Терор здійснюється у різних формах–від бомбардування житлових кварталів до розстрілів каральними загонами. Але чи досягне таке насильство своєї мети або ж насправді посилить опір українців? Цей… Read more »
Transactional Engagements: Middle Eastern Responses to the Ukrainian War
Russia’s war in Ukraine has been met with global condemnation drawing NATO and the EU closer together in coordinating collective responses. In contrast to this coordinated front among US, French and German responses, it is worth drawing attention to the mixed regional responses among states in the Middle East for whom the war can have… Read more »
The new Great Patriotic War
Leaders in both Ukraine and Russia are making ammunition out of the Soviet Union’s wartime history. Who are the fascists this time? It is both painful and strange to see photographs of Ukrainian civilians signing up for military service in the war against the Russians. Some of the volunteers are disturbingly young, their protective gear… Read more »
Arms and Influence in Ukraine
The supply of weapons and other military equipment has been one of two main responses by Western States to the invasion of Ukraine (the other being economic sanctions). Compared to direct deployment of military forces, arms supplies are often seen as relatively uncomplicated and low cost means to assist a friendly or allied state. Nevertheless,… Read more »