The full-scale re-invasion of Ukraine, ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin on February 24, came as a shock for many groups within the Russian elite. They are still assessing the consequences of that autocratic decision and adapting to the fast-deteriorating political and economic environment. Meanwhile, Putin persists with rigidly confronting the West and apparently expects… Read more »
Category: Security
At the 100-Day Mark, Russian Offensive Crawls toward Eventual Defeat
Modern wars are decided, according to Russian military strategy, in the high-intensity initial period, and the multi-pronged offensive into Ukraine was indeed launched with the aim of achieving a decisive success in the first couple of weeks. As the war crossed the symbolic 100-day watershed last weekend, nothing resembling a victory was discernible on Russia’s… Read more »
Could Annexation Be Putin’s Response to NATO Enlargement?
Russia’s aggression against Ukraine has energized the North Atlantic Alliance in every possible way, reviving its purpose and unity, and granting it new attractiveness in Europe and greater prominence in the Indo-Pacific. The prospect of Finland and Sweden joining the 30 member-states was hypothetical last autumn, when Moscow issued the ultimatum demanding that NATO curtail… Read more »
Drones in the Ukraine War: An Initial Strategic and Sociological Assessment
Drones have played a very important, multidimensional role since the beginning of the current iteration of the war in Ukraine. This importance mirrors what happens in modern conflict all over the world: both in more conventional conflict and in other insurgency / counter-insurgency settings, drones have become a central part of the way contemporary war… Read more »
Finland and Sweden’s Move to NATO
Russia’s war on Ukraine has repercussions also in Northern Europe. Finland and Sweden, despite their longstanding policy of military non-alignment, are more than likely going to submit their applications for NATO membership before the summer. In light of Russia’s brutal and unprovoked war and both countries’ close existing partnership with NATO, this move does not… Read more »
Putin’s Blood Trail from Syria to the Ukraine: Western Failures in the Face of Power-Play, Propaganda and De-humanization
One of the tragic side-effects of the war in Ukraine is that at long last – and unfortunately only now – the last person in the West may have come to understand what really happened in Syria, especially after Russian intervention. This does not help those Syrians who have been suffering for more than a… Read more »
No Sensible End-Game for Russia in the Badly Mismanaged War
Predictions of a decisive offensive in Donbass and speculations about peace talks have gained new intensity in both Russian propaganda and Western commentary last week – and neither makes much sense. Artillery and air strikes on the solid Ukrainian defense lines in several key directions on the battle for Donbass have escalated, but Russian battalions,… Read more »
Putin Is Staking His Political Future on Victory in Ukraine – and Has Little Incentive to Make Peace
Despite stop-and-start peace talks, a resolution to the brutal war in Ukraine appears distant. Major cities in Ukraine are faltering. Civilians, including children, are dying of shrapnel and glass wounds, exposure and thirst. At the same time, Ukraine’s resilience and a coordinated global response means the war is not ending as many expected before it… Read more »
Russia’s Quick Victory Vanishes, as Protracted War Looks Inevitable
Russia has revised its war plan multiple times during the, so far, seven-week-long, ill-conceived large-scale invasion of Ukraine, yet it still remains incompatible with both tactical imperatives and political ambitions. The consecutive revisions themselves have been flawed in different ways: if the initial “Blitzkrieg” design was based on the assumption that the Ukrainian military would… Read more »
Russia’s Strategic Confusion in Ukraine Deepens and Widens
For at least the past 3 weeks of the 33-day-long war against Ukraine, it has been clear that the Russian offensive has lost momentum, with its key groupings of forces stuck in the suburbs of Kyiv, Kharkiv and Mykolaiv. The question that all concerned observers have been asking is what the ostracized Russian leadership will… Read more »